High Wind in Alaska, November 6, 2024

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
508 AM AKST Wed Nov 6 2024

.SHORT TERM.../Through Wednesday Night/ Rain will continue through
this morning with highest precipitation amounts over the southern
panhandle and chance of thunderstorms along the north and central
coast. Rain will end this afternoon as a ridge moves toward the
panhandle. This will give us a few dry hours before rain returns
as a front moves over the panhandle overnight. A low will move
south of the panhandle creating rain for the southern cities
first. This low gets absorbed by the front allowing for all other
areas to see precipitation by Thursday morning.

The developing ridge will decrease wind speeds throughout
Wednesday. With the next front quickly following, winds will begin
to increase by Wednesday night. Strong breezes will once again be
found along the coast and into the inner channels. In the far
offshore waters, winds will start to increase to gales as a low
moves farther north up the Aleutian Islands.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday into the weekend/...
Quick Notes:
-Active weather continues, but nothing too out of the ordinary for
 SE AK in November.
-Wet and rainy end of the week.
-Dry and cooler weather maybe sneaks in from the north?

Details:
To try to put it into simple terms, the concerns in the mid to
long range forecast can be simplified into two parts. The first
part is Thursday into the weekend, where SE AK continues this
rainy pattern. The second part is the weekend into next week,
where potential outflow sets up, which would give drier/colder
weather from north to south and strong winds in the inner
channels.

Starting with the first part, lingering 500mb low over the gulf
will keep the rainy weather in place. General pattern will keep
the flow out of the south so either the passing fronts will keep
rain in the area or the onshore flow will keep the showery/on-off
rain in the area. And forecasted rain amounts aren't too
impressive though. EFI tables aren't highlighting much for QPF
and the EURO/GFS ensemble probabilities for rain amounts greater
than one inch are on the lower side, less than 40% chance. Much
high probabilities for amounts greater than 1/2 inch. So for now,
expecting amounts around a half inch to one inch. Highs in the 40s
and lows in the 30s means mostly rain, but we can't rule out some
snowflakes mixing-in in the far northern panhandle.

Wind speeds will be on the lighter side for land areas, inner
channel wind speeds around 15 to 25 knots when a front passes
through on Thursday with 10 to 20 knots on Friday.

Either way you slice it, not very impactful.

The second part of the forecast has a low passing west-to-east
near Haida Gwaii. This would keep rain in the forecast for the
southern areas but potential outflow would start for the northern
areas. This would drive colder and drier air in from the north.
Potentially driving down PoPS and temps for those in the north.
How strong this outflow would be is still up for debate in the
models but comfortable with up to 25 to 30 knots in Lynn Canal by
Sunday afternoon. Stay tuned in for updates throughout the week.

&&

.AVIATION...

Predominate VFR flight conditions across northern panhandle TAF
sites this morning with deteriorating flight conditions to MVFR
ongoing across the southern panhandle as a system pushes inland.

For the southern panhandle, a surface low will move into the
southern panhandle interior by Wednesday afternoon. Anticipating
scattered showers to continue across this area, with heaviest
showers primarily along and south of a line from Sitka to
Petersburg with slight chance of a thunderstorm along the coast.
Flight conditions will be variable between upper end IFR to low
end VFR CIGS AoB 3000 to 5000ft with visibilities dropping down to
2 to 4 SM within the heaviest showers. Main aviation concern will
be elevated wind gusts and LLWS up 40kts for far southern
panhandle TAF sites such as PAKT and PAKW through 00z this
afternoon as the system pushes inland.

For the northern panhandle, better flight conditions as the
aforementioned low moves into the southern panhandle, briefly
overspreading cooler and drier northerly flow over the area by
Wednesday night. Anticipating rain chances to decrease by the
evening with predominate VFR flight conditions and CIGS AoA
5000ft. Sustained winds should remain 10kts or less for much of
the panhandle, outside PAHN and PAGY which will see winds up to
20kts with isolated gusts up to 30kts through the afternoon.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...None.
MARINE...Gale Warning for PKZ036.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664-671-
     672.

&&

SHORT TERM...EAB
LONG TERM....GJS
AVIATION...NM

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