NWS Sacramento, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 29, 1:48 AM PST, 6 hours 12 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Mar 29, 1:48 AM PST, 6 hours 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
248 AM PDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.Synopsis...
The next round of of active and impactful weather arrives today,
persists through Saturday, and lingers into Sunday. Widespread rain,
moderate mountain snow, gusty southerly winds today, and isolated
thunderstorms on Saturday are all expected. As a result, mountain
travel impacts are anticipated today into the weekend. Drier and
warmer weather then prevails early to mid next week.
&&
.Discussion...
As of early this morning, a relative lull in activity is being
observed across interior NorCal. Partly to mostly cloudy skies are
evident, with generally light winds and low temperatures in the 40s
in the Valley and 20s to 30s at higher elevations. An offshore
closed low approaching the coast is beginning to result in
increasing cloud cover though, and this system will introduce the
next period of active weather from today into the weekend. This
closed low is expected to deepen as it reaches the coast and then
continue on a southward trajectory along the California coastline
through the weekend. The path of this system will allow for an
influx of moisture into interior NorCal ahead of it.
With ample forcing from the close proximity of the closed low,
increasing precipitation chances are expected throughout the day
today across much of the region. Additionally, as a lobe of a low to
mid level jet streak pushes inland as the system arrives, a period
of gusty south to southeast winds is expected this afternoon into
the evening across the Delta and southern Sacramento and northern
San Joaquin Valleys. Wind gusts of 40 to 45 mph are expected in
these areas.
As for precipitation, given the orientation of the system, heaviest
precipitation is anticipated at higher elevations, with a bit of a
shadowing effect throughout the Valley with the initial arrival of
precipitation. While periods of moderate rain in the foothills and
mountain snowfall are expected to begin this morning, more isolated
rain shower activity is expected in the Valley. As the closed low
draws closer to the coast by the afternoon though, a period of more
widespread precipitation is anticipated through the afternoon and
evening, with moderate snowfall continuing into Saturday morning
over the Sierra. At this time, heaviest precipitation is expected
this afternoon into early Saturday morning. As the closed low
progresses, periods of scattered showers will then remain possible
through Saturday, with a few isolated thunderstorms across the Delta
and southern Sacramento and northern San Joaquin Valleys. Any
thunderstorms that do develop will have the potential for brief
heavy rainfall, gusty winds, small hail, and possibly a few
instances of funnel clouds. All in all, liquid precipitation totals
of 0.5" to 1.0" will be possible in the Valley and foothills, with
1.0" to 2.0" over the mountains.
Snow levels look to remain persistent, around 3500' to 4500', today
into Saturday, before rising to 4500' to 5500' Saturday evening into
Sunday morning. As a result, heaviest accumulating snowfall is
expected above 5000', with still some accumulations down to 4000'.
While overly heavy snowfall rates are not anticipated, prolonged
periods of moderate snow, with snowfall rates up to 1" per hour at
times, are expected. As a result, currently looking at snowfall
accumulations of 4" to 8" between 4000' and 5000', with 8" to 20"
above 5000', and up to 30" at highest peaks. These snowfall numbers
are similar for both the Coastal Range/Shasta County mountains and
Sierra, with heaviest snowfall expected along the Sierra from around
I-80 southward. Regardless, expect at least moderate mountain travel
impacts this weekend, with travel delays and chain controls possible
from falling snow and snow covered roads.
Mountain snow showers are expected to linger south of I-80 through
much of the day on Sunday and although a few isolated showers may
continue across the northern San Joaquin and southern Sacramento
Valley, generally dry and quiet weather is expected elsewhere. As
the closed low continues southward along the California coastline,
an upper level ridge is expected to build in from the Pacific
Northwest into early next week. This will result in dry and warming
weather into Monday, with high temperatures returning to near normal
by Monday afternoon.
&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Tuesday THROUGH Friday)...
Drier and warmer weather expected early next week as EPAC upper
level ridging builds into the PacNW and offshore flow develops
over NorCal. Locally gusty north to east wind possible into
early Tuesday in the northern and eastern foothills and mountains.
Ridge progresses midweek as short wave trough digs into the area
from the north Wednesday and lingers into Friday. This will result
in cooling with a threat of showers and snow showers in the
northern and eastern foothills and mountains of interior NorCal.
High temperatures Tuesday expected around 7-15 degrees above
normal, cooling to below normal Thursday and Friday.
&&
.AVIATION...
In Central Vly, areas MVFR/IFR spreading W to E today in shra
becoming widespread MVFR/IFR aft 00z Sat. Areas Sly sfc wind 15-25
kts after 18z Fri. Isolated tsra possible vcnty of Delta btwn 20z-
04z. In foothills/mtns, increasing MVFR/IFR conditions spreading W
to E today then widespread MVFR/IFR aft 20z Sat with lcl LIFR in
shra/shsn. Snow levels 3500-4500 feet. Lcl Sly sfc wind gusts 30-40
kts over higher terrain.
&&
.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Saturday
for Mountains Southwestern Shasta County to Western Colusa
County-Shasta Lake Area / Northern Shasta County.
Wind Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 11 PM PDT this evening
for Carquinez Strait and Delta-Northern San Joaquin Valley-
Southern Sacramento Valley.
Winter Storm Warning from 8 AM this morning to 5 PM PDT Sunday
for West Slope Northern Sierra Nevada-Western Plumas
County/Lassen Park.
&&