NWS Pueblo, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 29, 2:56 AM MST, 7 hours 5 minutes earlier. Its key messages:
Area forecast discussion, Mar 29, 2:56 AM MST, 7 hours 5 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
356 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Snow showers are expected across the mountains today, particularly
across the central mountains.
- Critical fire weather conditions are anticipated across the
far southeastern plains today through Sunday.
- Dry and cool conditions for most Friday night, with isolated
snow showers along the central mountains.
- Cooler and unsettled weather returns next week.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Today: Friday will bring some active weather to the region, with
snow in the mountains, and fire weather for parts of the plains.
Synoptically, southwesterly flow will continue to be in place, with
an embedded shortwave ejecting to the northeast over the region.
This wave will bring increased synoptic forcing/support, while
helping to keep orographic forcing in place. With the uptick in
forcing, snow showers are anticipated to blossom in coverage over
the mountains, especially the central mountains, where forcing will
be maximized. Given the broader support with the wave, some showers
are expected to push off the higher terrain areas and spread across
the valleys, particularly the upper Arkansas River Valley. Elsewhere
across the area, dry conditions are anticipated as southwesterly
flow doesn't overly support precipitation development away from the
higher terrain. Across lower elevations, critical fire weather
conditions will be a concern. As southwesterly winds increase
throughout the day, and some dry air mixes to the surface, critical
fire weather conditions are anticipated to materialize, mostly
across the far southeastern plains where winds will be strongest.
Looking at temperatures, a warm day is expected for south central
and southeastern Colorado. A minor cold front will try to sag
southward over the area early in the day, but the increasing flow
will help to shunt this front back to the northeast throughout the
day. With downsloping southwesterly winds prevailing, and mostly
clear skies, the plains will warm into the 60s to mid 70s, the
valleys rising into the upper 40s to 50s, and the mountains reaching
into the mid 20s to 30s.
Tonight: Friday night brings some quieter weather to the region. The
aforementioned shortwave will exit the area, with southwesterly flow
and minor height rises taking place behind it. Given the lack of any
major forcing with this flow, dry conditions are expected for south
central and southeastern Colorado. The exception to this will be
along the central mountains, where minor orographic forcing will
help to develop isolated light snow showers. As for temperatures, a
cool night is anticipated for the area. The previously mentioned
cold front will finally drop southward during the early evening, and
along with that, mostly clear skies will allow for better
radiational cooling. Given all of that, the plains will drop into
the 30s, the valley sinking into the 20s, and the mountains cooling
into the mid 10s to 20s.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Saturday-Sunday...
Increasing fire danger will be our main forecast concern for this
weekend as an upper-level jet begins to move in over our area. Winds
aloft will be from the west-southwest on Saturday, with gusts mixing
down to the surface as downsloping winds warm the eastern plains
above seasonal averages. Afternoon highs will actually be close to
or a few degrees cooler than Friday as a weak cold front moves in
from the north very early in the day, mainly in the 60s to low-70s
across the plains. Winds will be consistently strong across and near
the higher terrain, especially around our gap flow areas, along with
parts of the New Mexico border/Raton Mesa area. Humidities in the
afternoon will be marginal for critical conditions, mostly around 20
percent, but portions of our far southeast plains will reach low
enough to warrant the Red Flag Warning. Eastern Las Animas into Baca
Counties will be the areas that experience that perfect overlap of
low humidities and continuous gusty winds.
On Sunday, winds will greatly increase aloft as the upper-jet moves
overhead. Strong southwest winds will set in across our entire CWA,
strongest over the mountains but still gusty over the lower
elevations as well. The NBM came in exceedingly strong tonight, so
have blended in more of the 10th percentile to make things more
realistic. Even so, portions of the San Luis Valley, southern I-25,
and our southeast mountains may approach High Wind criteria Sunday
afternoon, though it is still a bit too early to know how consistent
those conditions will be. Either way, widespread critical fire
weather conditions are expected across the eastern plains Sunday
afternoon.
Looking at precipitation chances, the incoming upper low from the
west coast will advect moisture and synoptic lift into the
Continental Divide throughout the weekend. Snow showers will begin
to spread across our western mountain peaks late on Saturday,
increasing in coverage on Sunday to the Palmer Divide and the
southeast mountains as well. As of now, accumulations don't look
very heavy, though blowing snow could result in some travel issues
given the winds.
Monday Onwards...
There is still a good amount of uncertainty to work through with the
incoming system for the first half of next week. Through the end of
the weekend, the upper low off of the west coast will move inland,
splitting into two separate lobes of energy embedded within the
broad upper-level trough. The southern low will dive south towards
the mexican border, while the northern low will push eastwards
towards our area. This northern low is where most of the uncertainty
in the forecast exists, with different long-range models giving
different strengths and speeds to the incoming system. Right now,
there exists little consistency between the deterministic EC, GFS,
and Canadian, and the blended guidance tends to smooth out some of
the details as a result. However, a few things do remain clear.
First, the system will begin to move into our area on Monday,
brining a strong cold front, gusty north winds, and a big drop in
high temperatures for Monday afternoon (around 20 degrees). As the
front moves in, precipitation will spread from the higher terrain
and quick move over the plains. The mountains and most of the
valleys will largely get snowfall, but the far eastern plains should
stay warm enough to only see rain. Spaces along the mountains/plains
interface will likely face a mix. Finally, the system should be
fairly quick-moving, meaning that by the end of the day on Tuesday
we dry out and start to warm up again. For the remainder of the long-
term period, an upper ridge will begin to build in, leading to
quieter and warmer weather for at least a few days.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 355 AM MDT Fri Mar 29 2024
KCOS and KPUB, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours.
Winds this morning and tonight will remain relatively light, with
southwesterly wind increasing by late morning for both TAF sites. A
weak cold front will meander around both sites early in the morning,
especially KCOS, and may cause dramatic wind shifts from light
northeasterly flow to gusty southwesterly. This front is expected to
be shunted to the northeast during mid to late morning, which is
when the gusty southwesterly winds will prevail. Otherwise, dry
conditions with relatively clear skies are expected, with mid to
high level clouds increasing late in the TAF period.
KALS: VFR conditions are expected over the next 24 hours. Winds this
morning and tonight will remain relatively light, with southwesterly
wind increasing by late morning for the TAF site. Otherwise, dry
conditions with relatively clear skies are expected, with mid to
high level clouds increasing late in the TAF period.
&&
.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 6 AM MDT Saturday for COZ060.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MDT this
evening for COZ233-237.
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MDT Saturday for COZ233-
237.
&&
SHORT TERM...SIMCOE
LONG TERM...GARBEROGLIO
AVIATION...SIMCOE