Hail and Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 28, 2024

Name: Hail and Damaging Wind in Arizona, July 28, 2024
Start: 2024-07-28T14:40
End: 2024-07-28T14:45
Location: Arizona

July 28, 2024 · NWS TWC · 2 events in 1 county or zone

A severe thunderstorm impacted the Willcox area resulting in 1 inch hail and downed power poles due to strong winds.

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.

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Wind
Hail
Winter weather
Heat and drought
Cold
Fire, smoke and dust
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The toll

Deaths: 0
Injuries: 0
Property damage: $10,000
Crop damage: None recorded
Events: 2

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

A severe thunderstorm impacted the Willcox area resulting in 1 inch hail and downed power poles due to strong winds.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 28, 1:46 PM MST, 54 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 28, 1:46 PM MST, 54 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
146 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms this
through the week. Main threats will be heavy rainfall with strong
gusty winds. Localized flash flooding and isolated severe winds
will be possible.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

While the axis of broad ridging sits to the east, mean
atmospheric flow over southeastern Arizona has become southerly.
Though not particularly fast, this will will aid in a slow
northward propagation of heavy raining convection today. As shown
by the morning upper air observation and GOES precipitable water
values, the atmosphere is certainly primed to produce very heavy
rainfall rates this afternoon and early evening. The combination
of instability and richest moisture generally favors thunderstorm
development from southern central Pima County through Santa Cruz
and Cochise counties, with isolated development further into
southern Pinal and Graham counties this afternoon. Though the
primary threat should be the very heavy rainfall rates, wet
microbursts may produce isolated strong to severe wind gusts as
well. Coverage should quickly diminish with sunset, however a few
late storms out of Sonora tonight can't be ruled out.

As the upper high drifts further east on Monday, flow aloft
becomes a bit stronger (around 10 to near 20 kts at 500mb). Under
otherwise similar atmospheric conditions to today, this may allow
for longer lived convection with potentially a bit of a higher
wind gust threat. That said, there is some uncertainty in severity
and favored location as models showing the potential for lingering
cloud cover in the morning which may inhibit full development of
instability. The 12Z HREF updraft helicity probability (a modeled
probability of potential thunderstorm organization and severity)
shows an uptick in probability tomorrow compared to today, however
more limited in spatial coverage towards the southern border.
Further analysis will need to be made tonight.

With the ridge sitting to the east, daily chances for
monsoon activity with a southerly component will continue. An
interesting added factor will be a low pressure circulation,
currently south of the Baja peninsula, which models currently
have moving north towards southern Arizona around mid-week. It's
much too early for details on this circulation's impact, however
it could cause some changes to the normal diurnal convective
timing cycle.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 30/00Z.

Scattered thunderstorms through 28/02Z near KOLS-KDUG and isolated
up north through KTUS and KSAD. Very heavy rainfall, brief MVFR
conditions, and isolated gusty outflow winds to 45 kts near any
thunderstorm today. Otherwise winds generally under 12kts this
afternoon and becoming light tonight. Chances for thunderstorms
expected again Monday afternoon. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Elevated moisture will continue with scattered afternoon and
evening showers and thunderstorms. Each day has the threat of
heavy rain, localized flash flooding and strong gusty outflow
winds. Away from thunderstorms, 20-foot winds will generally be 15
mph or less, with afternoon/early evening gusts to 20-25 mph and
light winds overnight. As high pressure builds mid- week, high
temperatures should rise a bit and minimum relative humidities
should fall by a few percentage points.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Blowing Dust Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 8 PM MST this
evening for AZZ505.

&&

Public...Edwards
Aviation...Edwards
Fire Weather....Edwards

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

In the hours before

Local storm report, Jul 28, 12:48 PM MST, 1 hour 52 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
1248 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1245 PM     Hail             10 SE Sierra Vista      31.48N 110.19W
07/28/2024  M0.70 Inch       Cochise            AZ   Trained Spotter

            Also reported about 0.5 inches of rain in 15
            minutes so far.

&&

AJE

Local storm report, Jul 28, 1:38 PM MST, 1 hour 2 minutes before

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
138 PM MST Sun Jul 28 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0115 PM     Tstm Wnd Gst     7 W Pirtleville         31.37N 109.69W
07/28/2024  M53 MPH          Cochise            AZ   Mesonet

            Mesonet station KP03 Cochise College
            Airport.

&&

AJE

The radar

The Tucson radar (KEMX), 84 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:39 UTC.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 hail, 1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.

Hail, Cochise

When: July 28, 2:40 PM MST
Where: Cochise County, 3.64 mi NW of Willcox
Measured: 1 in hail
Reported by: Social Media
Coordinates: 32.290, -109.871

One inch diameter hail was reported near Willcox.

Thunderstorm Wind, Cochise

When: July 28, 2:45 PM MST
Where: Cochise County, 2.19 mi NNW of Willcox
Measured: 52 kt (60 mph) estimated gust
Property damage: $10,000
Reported by: Local Official
Coordinates: 32.280, -109.841

Power pole down on Circle I between Jonnie Drive and Iron Rose Rd.

What these are

Hail: Hail three-quarters of an inch or larger, or smaller hail that caused damage, filed with the largest stone measured.
Thunderstorm Wind: Winds from a thunderstorm of 50 knots (58 mph) or more, or lower winds that caused damage or casualties. Measured gusts are marked MG, estimated EG.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

Every storm in Arizona in 2024 Every state in 2024 This day in weather history Warnings in Arizona, July 2024

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-10-01. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1190908, 1190910.