A low associated with the remnants of Typhoon Kong-rey tracked northwards through the Eastern Bering, bringing plentiful moisture and strong winds to Southwest Alaska. This, combined with the cold air in place in the Kuskokwim Delta, allowed for blizzard conditions to arise from Bethel towards the west.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFC wrote it up.
A low associated with the remnants of Typhoon Kong-rey tracked northwards through the Eastern Bering, bringing plentiful moisture and strong winds to Southwest Alaska. This, combined with the cold air in place in the Kuskokwim Delta, allowed for blizzard conditions to arise from Bethel towards the west. During the same timeframe, a frontal boundary from this same low tracked into Southcentral Alaska, carrying ample moisture into the Eastern Kenai Peninsula. Once again, enough cold air was in place to cause heavy snowfall along the Turnagain Pass and the Seward Highway.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Anchorage, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 3, 4:55 PM AKST, 10 hours 42 minutes earlier.
Southcentral and Southwest Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Anchorage AK 455 PM AKST Sun Nov 3 2024 .SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA (Days 1 through 3)... Most of Southcentral is in a brief break of active weather, with an exception being the Western Kenai Peninsula which remains under a Winter Weather Advisory until 9pm AKST this evening for Homer north along the Sterling Highway including Ninilchik. Snow accumulations of 3 to 6 inches are expected with higher amounts along the Homer Bluff and Diamond Ridge. A weak, but broad wave will shift northward tonight, overspreading areas of light snow across Southcentral, including but not limited to, Anchorage, the Susitna Valley, and the Copper River Valley. Snowfall over Anchorage is expected to be light and brief, bringing 1 to 2 inches to the city and areas of hillside. The Susitna Valley will see a slightly more prolonged period of snow, with a shortwave lingering snowfall over portions of the Parks Highway near Talkeetna into early Monday morning. Monday will see a return to benign conditions across Southcentral, however yet another shift towards active weather will come by late Monday evening. A robust front will enter the region from the Southwest, moving over Kodiak Island before midnight Tuesday. This system is supported by a strong upper level jet, which will amplify the wind produced, as well as a deep moisture tap from the Pacific, which will similarly amplify the precipitation potential of the system. Heavy rainfall and strong winds are expected to begin late Monday night over Kodiak, persisting into late Tuesday morning as the front exits and moves over the Kenai Peninsula. Offshore in our marine areas, storm-force winds are expected off the eastern coast of Kodiak as well as over the Barren Islands and east of the Kenai Peninsula. Early Tuesday morning the front will begin to move over the Kenai Peninsula and spread heavy precipitation across the area. While there may be a transition towards a wet snow later in the morning in places such as Seward, Whittier, and Portage, the precipitation associated with this system is largely anticipated to comprise of snow. Due to the winds and snowfall expected, several statements have been produced for the inclement weather Tuesday and Tuesday evening. A Winter Storm Watch has been issued for the Eastern Kenai Peninsula along portions of the Seward Highway, specifically for heavy snow with accumulations of 10 to 18 inches possible at higher elevations such as Turnagain Pass and and Summit Lake. Another Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Thompson Pass, for potential Blizzard conditions, winds gusting to 45 mph or more, and snow accumulations of a foot or more possible. A High Wind Watch has been issued for both eastern and western Turnagain Arm, with the eastern sector showing potential for wind gusts up to 75 mph near Portage, and the western sector showing potential for winds up to 70 mph for the higher elevations of Anchorage Hillside including Potter Marsh and Bear Valley. Please see mentioned products for more information. Downsloping will mitigate the heavy precipitation for the Cook Inlet areas and southern Mat-Su, but there is strong upper level support so some rain and snow will likely still fall. Following the relatively quick passage of the front, exiting to the north, pressure gradient will relax some weakening the winds across the area, and precipitation will be mainly upslope on southern facing mountain ranges. A snow to rain transition is expected for any areas of lingering precipitation as the front pushes north. -CL && ..SHORT TERM FORECAST SOUTHWEST ALASKA/BERING SEA/ALEUTIANS (Days 1 through 3)... Discussion: Just a few areas of light snow still ongoing across Southwest Alaska and the interior Bristol Bay area this afternoon as weak troughing lingers over the region. Shortwave ridging moving in tonight will finally push the trough north with precipitation ending. This will be a brief respite as the storm-force low is still on track to deepen as it moves out of the North Pacific and across the Central and Eastern Aleutians, then tracking north of the Alaska Peninsula towards Cape Newenham and Kuskokwim Bay. Models have finally converged and are in good agreement with both the timing and track of this low. A slight shift from yesterday's track now has the surface low crossing over to the Bering side between Akutan and False Pass and upper low tracking over near Dutch Harbor/Unalaska with the system becoming more stacked as it nears Cape Newenham. The low will bottom out around 950 mb just before crossing the Aleutians and southern AKPen Monday night. Winds will quickly strengthen as the system deepens and storm-force winds are expected to reach the Eastern Aleutians early Monday morning, spreading into the southern/eastern Bering, Pribilof Islands and the Alaska Peninsula by Monday night. In addition, strong north to northwesterly winds will also develop on the backside of the system so portions of the Central and Eastern Aleutians will see a somewhat prolonged period of strong winds from Monday morning through Tuesday night. Kamishak Gap winds, as well and winds through the bays and passes will also a period of gales to storm-force winds as the initial front lifts through. The other impact from this system will be precipitation amounts and type. Enough cold air remains in place across the Alaska Peninsula and Southwest Alaska that precipitation should initially start out as snow with a transition to a wintry mix and/or all rain as warmer temperatures move in behind the warm front. The Aleutian Islands and southern end of the Alaska Peninsula will likely see more rain or a rain-snow mix with only the higher elevations seeing all snow. The northern Alaska Peninsula and Bristol Bay area will see precipitation begin as snow will a transition to rain-snow mix or all rain. As southeasterly to easterly winds increase over the Alaska Range, downsloping should keep the bulk of the precipitation on the western side of Bristol Bay (generally along a line from Dillingham to Koliganek and west). Sufficient moisture with this system will result in decent snowfall rates as the initial precipitation band moves in and up to 5 inches of snowfall is possible for lower elevations before warmer temperatures nudge in. The combination of strong winds and snow will result in blowing snow concerns for this area and as such a Winter Storm Watch has been issued for Western Interior Bristol Bay from Monday night through Tuesday morning. A Winter Storm Watch has also been issued for Western Kuskokwim Delta and Nunivak Island as this region is less likely to see temperatures warm enough for a changeover from snow to rain. Gusts up to 50 mph and modest snowfall amounts will create blowing snow and likely blizzard conditions from late Monday night through Tuesday afternoon. The Pribilofs are an area of uncertainty forecast-wise as temperatures should stay in the mid 30s but dynamical cooling will likely result in snow developing. Models also have the deformation band right over the islands so temperatures and snowfall rates will be a big factor in snow accumulations. - PP && .LONG TERM FORECAST (Days 4 through 7: Thursday through Sunday)... A large low associated with the remnants of Kong-rey will remain stationary just off the Kuskokwim Delta coast through the long range period. Precipitation will be mostly in the form of snow with a rain/snow mix in the coastal areas. Cold air advection will slowly filter into Southwest Alaska through the period, which will make any precipitation solidly snowfall in the Kuskokwim Delta and Bristol Bay regions as the low remains in place. There is some potential for coastal flooding in the Kuskokwim Delta coastline near Kongiganak and Kipnuk on Thursday due to the high tide and the low. However, with wind speeds of 25 to 30 mph, the odds of flooding occurring is on the lower side. A broad low will move into the Gulf of Alaska by Thursday. Gusty gale force winds will affect Southcentral coastlines, especially near Kodiak Island, the Barren Islands, and Kamishak Bay before weakening on Friday. There is uncertainty with the track so the winds may be weaker if the low takes an easterly track. Precipitation across the Southern mainland coastline is expected with this low. The coasts will see mostly rain with higher elevations seeing mostly snowfall. Inland areas will be mainly dry but if they receive any precipitation, it will be in the form of light snow. Another broad low will impact Southern Alaska on Sunday. There is even more uncertainty with the low, but models show that it may be more impactful than Thursday's low. It will bring strong gale force winds for the marine regions of Southcentral. It will also allow for more heavy rains across the Gulf coastline and snowfall further inland and at higher elevations. The end of the period brings us back to the West, where another low passes south of the Aleutian Islands in the north Pacific. Uncertainty arises but this low may impact the Gulf in the future. -JR && .AVIATION... PANC...Periods of light snow will continue through early Monday morning as an upper trough lifts onshore of Southcentral. It is a fairly complex set-up in the upper levels with an upper low forming in the vicinity of Prince William Sound, stopping the northward progression of the trough and creating some uncertainty in where snowfall will persist. The end result will be some variations in snowfall intensity and perhaps even some breaks in snow which will lead to some ups and downs in ceiling/vis. Largely expect MVFR conditions to prevail, but with light winds and a moist environment, an IFR ceiling could develop as snow tapers off Monday morning and linger through the morning hours. A slight increase in low level flow should lead to improving conditions Monday afternoon. &&
1 blizzard, 1 winter storm. Local standard time, as filed.
An AWOS in Kipnuk (PAKI) reported strong winds gusting to over 40 mph, visibilities predominantly at 1/4SM, and moderate to heavy snowfall from 21:55 AKST 11/04 to 01:05 AKST 11/05.
A SNOTEL in Turnagain Pass reported snowfall rates of more than 2 inches per hour in the early morning hours of November 5th. There were reports from social media that near-whiteout conditions were occurring along the Seward Highway near Turnagain Pass during the same time period.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, November 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1226113, 1226115.