High Wind in Alaska, November 19 to 21, 2024

Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Juneau AK
315 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2024

.SHORT TERM.../ through Wednesday night / Made minimal changes as
area falls under the influence of the high pressure and outflow
winds. Dry weather through midweek, and below normal temperatures
for this time of year. Looking for overnight lowers from the
single digits to near 20. Daytime highs will also struggle to get
to freezing too, with limited amount of solar heating found in the
later half of November.

Main changes to forecast was to adjust waves for the Lynn Canal-
Chatham Strait to more 'fully developed' seas so height for
southern Lynn Canal and Northern Chatham in the 9 to 13 foot
range.

.LONG TERM.../Thursday through Tuesday/...Blocking pattern over the
region begins to break down at the end of the week and into the
weekend beginning the transition from the very cold, dry, and windy
northerly outflow conditions. Diminishing pressure gradients as the
Yukon high and low off the coast of Washington state weaken with a
weak low tracking into the NE Gulf. Winds remain elevated into
Friday with gales over the inner channels and overland gusts in the
35 to 45 mph range then the drop off Saturday into Sunday. Front
associated with the low has a chance to move in Monday with light
precip indicated by ensembles but latest operational models keep it
offshore until Tuesday. Once again ensembles put in a broad low over
the AK Gulf with a front remaining over SE AK. Meanwhile GFS/ECMWF
operational move in another ridge keeping any precip over this time
fairly light with more breaks. Any precip for the initial front will
likely be snow. With the cold air in place and a warm moist mid
level air mass to the west behind the ridge over running snow events
not out of the question. Right now GFS/ECMWF have 24 hour amounts in
the 3 to 5 inch range mid week. But 850 mb temps creep up to the -3
to -6 C range which gets more towards a snow/rain mix or possibly
all rain, especially for the south. high confidence in overall
weather pattern into Sunday with lower confidence in conditions next
week.

&&

.AVIATION...With clearing skies, the only real limiting factor
for flying will be areas of LLWS due to strong northerly outflow
winds from the Canadian interior as well as an intense cyclone off
the pacific NW coast. Winds will continue to strengthen overnight
Tuesday, while the far southern panhandle could see an isolated
rain/snow shower as well. Otherwise VFR conditions across the
panhandle through Wednesday morning and beyond.

&&

.MARINE...Strong outflow winds for the northern inner Channels
tonight, and spreading into the south central Wednesday time
frame. Gales force winds cover much of the forecast area because
of the outflow, or interior passes guiding the channeled winds.
Northern Lynn Canal may stay at a very strong gale but have gone
with minimum Storm force for the northern Lynn Canal. Will also
see the potential for some freezing spray with the cold
temperatures and winds.

&&

.AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PUBLIC...Strong Wind through Wednesday afternoon for AKZ318.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 9 AM AKST
     Wednesday for AKZ318.
     Strong Wind Wednesday morning for AKZ323.
     Strong Wind from 6 PM AKST this evening through late tonight for
     AKZ325.
     Strong Wind Wednesday afternoon for AKZ325.
MARINE...Storm Warning for PKZ012.
     Gale Warning for PKZ013-022-031>033-053-641>644-651-661>664-671.
     Small Craft Advisory for PKZ011-021-034>036-652-672.

&&

SHORT TERM...Bezenek
LONG TERM....PRB
AVIATION...STJ
MARINE...Bezenek

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Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Juneau AK
1104 AM AKST Tue Nov 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0730 AM     Snow             2 ESE Ketchikan         55.34N 131.65W
11/19/2024  M7.0 Inch        Ketchikan Gateway  AK   Trained Spotter

            At observation time: 33 degrees with a SE
            wind at 5-7, OVC at 3000 ft with light snow.

&&

Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Juneau AK
347 PM AKST Tue Nov 19 2024

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     Snow             8 NW Ketchikan          55.45N 131.82W
11/19/2024  M6.7 Inch        Ketchikan Gateway  AK   CO-OP Observer

            CO-OP Observer station KTAA2 NW of Ketchikan
            measured 3.3 inches of snow fell during the
            day on the 18th and another 3.4 inches
            through the next morning. Snow showers were
            intermittent, starting around 5am on the
            19th and ending at around 9am on the 19th.

&&

NF