High Wind in Alaska, January 7, 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
214 PM AKST Sat Jan 6 2024

.DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS…

The break in the active weather was short lived, as the next
system moves into the Bering Sea today, resulting in significant
impacts to parts of the St Lawrence Island, West Coast and Western
Interior, and Arctic Coast. This morning, the surface low
pressure was centered over the Aleutians, continuing its journey
north-northeast through the weekend. This afternoon, conditions
will continue to deteriorate from south to north, with winds
increasing throughout the area. Through much of the day, the winds
will be relatively light through much Interior and Arctic Coast,
with locations along the West Coast and Norton and Kotzebue Sounds
seeing drastic increases in winds. With this system, we will see
a large push of moisture into locations along the West Coast,
which will allow for falling snow in areas from the YK Delta north
through the Seward Peninsula, some of which will be heavy at
times. Thus, we have issued Blizzard Warning for areas along the
West Coast and Arctic Coast, where strong winds will significantly
reduce visibility, with Winter Weather Advisories and Winter
Storm Warnings out to account for falling and blowing snow in
parts of the Interior and along the Seward Peninsula.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Synoptic Analysis and Forecast...

The main forecast concern revolves around the system currently
moving over the Aleutians and into the Bering Sea. This low
continues to deepen as it traverses into the Bering Sea. Currently
at 500 mb, we have a 498 dam (decameter) low, which is forecast
to deepen to near 485-490 dam at it highest intensity. Although, a
536 dam ridge remains over the Beaufort Sea, continuing to morph
into a north/south orientation. A shortwave trough of low pressure
continues to push west of the Bering Strait, with around a 500
dam low center associated with it. This wave will continue to
elongate and strengthen the strong upper ridge over the Arctic
Ocean, with a north/south orientation by late weekend.

At the surface, another strong surface low emerges over the
Aleutians and southern Bering Sea, currently with a 950 mb surface
pressure. This low will continue to deepen through the evening,
leading to impacts throughout the West Coast, St Lawrence Island,
and along the Arctic Coast once again. We are starting to see
impacts this afternoon along the YK Delta, with conditions quickly
deteriorating as this surface low continues its journey north
towards St Lawrence Island. This, coupled with the 1033 mb surface
high pressure over the Arctic Ocean will lead to an enhancement
in the pressure gradient. Similar to the last storm, we will be
approaching a 90-100 mb pressure difference throughout Alaska,
which will result in another period of strong winds. So, with
falling snow from the storm passing by and strong surface winds,
we can expect significant visibility reductions due to
blowing/falling snow. Thus, headlines have been issued to message
impacts from winds and blowing/falling snow.

North Slope and Brooks Range…

 After a brief period of improved conditions along the Arctic
Coast, we will see conditions deteriorate tonight and through
Sunday, from Utqiagvik to Kaktovik. Very strong winds will return
to the area, as another strong low pressure system passes through
the Bering Sea. A strong pressure gradient will set up across
Alaska, which will enhance the winds in these area, along with the
resurgence of the pressure trough along the Northern Slope. Thus,
another prolonged period of very strong winds and blowing snow
can be expected through the remainder of the weekend and into
early next week. Visibility reductions down to a quarter of a mile
or less are forecast, but we are not expecting any falling snow
at this time. Blizzard warnings have been issued, but we will
continue to monitor areas west of the warnings, as more winter
headlines may be necessary for blowing snow.

West Coast and Western Interior…

We are quickly seeing conditions deteriorate this afternoon,
continuing through tonight, as strong winds and falling snow
return. The stretch of quieter weather was short lived, as we see
the next low pressure system emerge over the Bering Sea. This
system will bring impacts throughout the West Coast and Western
Interior tonight and though Monday, as winds pick up significantly
and snow starts falling. We expect to see falling snow along the
YK Delta, West Coast, and towards St Lawrence Island. Currently,
we are expecting a widespread area of 1-3” of snow through the YK
Delta and parts of the Western Interior, along with the southern
half of the Seward Peninsula. Localized amounts between 4-7” will
be possible for some, especially in the Nome area and areas east.
Higher snowfall totals can be seen at the higher elevations,
generally from Holy Cross and north through Kaltag, where we are
currently forecasting between 5-10” of snow. Along with falling
snow, gusty winds will accompany this storm. Thus, blizzard
conditions are expected. Currently, we have Blizzard Warnings out
for some areas along the West Coast where we can see very strong
winds reducing visibilities significantly. We also have issued
Winter Weather Advisories for some along the coast where we expect
locations to remain above blizzard conditions, with Winter Storm
Warnings out for those expecting heavy snow at the higher
elevations from Holy Cross through Kaltag.

Central and Eastern Interior…

Quiet and cold weather can be expected today with mostly clear
skies, but clouds will be on the increase as the strong low
pressure pushes north into the Bering Sea. The Tanana Valley Jet
remains through the valley, but will pick up quite a bit within
the next 24 hours. The strongest winds will be seen tomorrow,
generally focused along the Delta Junction area, with wind gusts
between 35-45 mph or higher at times. A Wind Advisory has been
issued for this location. Much of the area will remain dry though
this period, but we will have a front pass through tomorrow as
well, which may bring in light snow. Most areas may see upwards to
a half inch to inch of snow, with some localized higher elevation
locations seeing between 1-2”. Higher elevation locations will
see snow start to move in on Sunday, with the remainder of valley
locations starting to see light snow as we go into Monday. The
increase in wind resulting from a tightening pressure gradient
will lead to some areas of blowing snow, which can reduce
visibility at times, especially along the Dalton Highway.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7…

Active weather pattern continues into early next week, as a large
ridge is forecast to set up over the Central Interior, with a
barrage of shortwave troughs forecast to pass through western
Alaska and ride along the ridge. This will bring along several
chances for precipitation through next week. The low pressure
trough over the Northern Slope is also forecast to strengthen
through next week, which may result in a period of stronger winds
late in the week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ803.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ821.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ822.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ824>826.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ827.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ830.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ804.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ832.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837.
     Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ851-852.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-802-805-853-854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ803-806>808-810-816-817-855-856.
     Storm Warning for PKZ804.
     Gale Warning for PKZ809.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-812-857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ813-814-859-860.
     Storm Warning for PKZ815-861.
     Storm Warning for PKZ850-851.
     Storm Warning for PKZ852.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&