A strong area of low pressure moving north through the Bering Sea combined with a strong area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean created a tight pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast of Alaska. As the pressure gradient tightened, strong winds developed creating blizzard conditions along the Beaufort Sea Coast.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AFG wrote it up.
A strong area of low pressure moving north through the Bering Sea combined with a strong area of high pressure over the Arctic Ocean created a tight pressure gradient along the Arctic Coast of Alaska. As the pressure gradient tightened, strong winds developed creating blizzard conditions along the Beaufort Sea Coast.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fairbanks, AK wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 7, 5:55 AM AKST, 4 hours 50 minutes earlier.
Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
555 AM AKST Sun Jan 7 2024
.SYNOPSIS...
An active weather pattern continues across Northern Alaska with
Blizzard Warnings in effect for the Arctic Coast from Utqiagvik
east, as well as numerous Blizzard Warnings, Winter Storm
Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories along the West Coast.
Mostly calm conditions are expected in the Interior except for
strong NE winds and blowing snow over Dalton Highway Summits, and
strong south winds through Alaska Range Passes and east winds at
Delta Junction where a High Wind Warning and Wind Advisories are
in effect. Winds will slowly drop across the area through Tuesday
with areas of light snow across the West Coast and in the
Interior.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
Analysis and Model Discussion...
A powerful 948 mb low lies between St. Paul and St. Matthew
Islands while a 1038 mb high lies north of Nuiqsut near 80 N. This
pattern has been quite persistent over the last week, and is
producing strong NE winds across most of northern Alaska with
Blizzard conditions in areas near the west and Arctic coasts and
strong winds and blowing snow across summits along the Dalton
Highway. Numerous warnings and advisories are in effect, and even
some for heavy snow from Anvik to Kaltag as the low in the Bering
spreads snowfall inland.
The low will transit northwest to the Gulf of Anadyr and weaken to
971 mb through midday Monday while the high in the Arctic will
maintain its strength and move slightly to the SE. The weakening
of the low in the Bering Sea will provide temporary relief of
strong offshore winds along the West Coast by Monday afternoon and
in the Interior by Monday morning. As this happens, an elongated
trough will move into the eastern Gulf of Alaska and spread light
snow into the Central and Eastern Interior Monday and Monday
night. Behind this system, a high amplitude ridge aloft will build
first over the West Coast on Tuesday ahead of yet another low
pressure system moving into the southern Bering Sea. The ridge
aloft will move over the Central and Eastern Interior Wednesday
and Thursday. This ridge aloft will bring much warmer temperatures
aloft for the middle to end of the work week. Will need to
monitor the potential for freezing rain in the Interior as this
pattern develops. The next low moving into the southern Bering
will bring another round of snow and strong offshore winds to the
West Coast Wednesday through Friday.
Models are in good agreement on the general pattern and
temperature trends aloft through Wednesday. Models are in okay
agreement on precipitation, except on Monday across the northern
Interior where the ECMWF and NAM are much snowier than the GFS. We
will trend the forecast toward the NAM and ECMWF solutions for
Monday based on a favorable pattern of upslope flow south of the
Brooks Range and recent poor performance of the GFS for similar
events. The deterministic GFS is also much drier than the ensemble
mean, so we will mostly leave the GFS out of the precipitation
forecast. We will make some tweaks to the wind forecast for the
current storm on the West Coast based on current observations.
There is excellent ensemble agreement for wind gusts near 60 mph
at Barter Island late this afternoon and evening, so that forecast
looks on track as well.
North Slope and Brooks Range...
Blizzard and near blizzard conditions are occurring from
Wainwright east to Point Thomson this morning. Expect blizzard
conditions later the afternoon and evening at Kaktovik as winds
increase and may gust as high as 60 mph. Little change in the
pattern is expected through mid week as high pressure remains over
the eastern Beaufort Sea with low pressure in the Bering Sea.
Winds along the coast will diminish to less than 20 knots by
Wednesday morning. Wind chills will not be a huge concern, though
still 20 to 30 below with ambient temperatures near and slightly
below zero. No precipitation is expected.
West Coast and Western Interior...
A slough of warnings and advisories are in effect for strong
winds, blowing snow, and low visibility as well as snow
accumulation as a powerful low moves northwest through the Bering
Sea. Blizzard and near blizzard conditions are occuring near Nome,
St. Lawrence Island, and along the Yukon Delta Coast. Kotzebue and
the Bering Strait are also seeing low visibility in both blowing
and falling snow this morning. Strong east winds continue at
Unalakleet with gusts to near 50 mph. Inland, heavy snow is
falling from Anvik north to Kaltag with storm total accumulations
of 6 to 10 inches expected. Conditions will remain poor through
Monday morning in most areas, then improve as the low pressure
system weakens in the Gulf of Anadyr. Only a short break is
expected before another system begins to impact the area late
Tuesday with another round of wind, snow, blowing snow, and low
visibility. This system will however be quite a bit weaker than
the current system. Temperatures will range from the 30s above
zero near Scammon Bay today and tomorrow to near zero by Tuesday
night for most of the Western Interior.
Central and Eastern Interior..
Temperatures will warm today and remain warmer through tomorrow as
clouds move over the area and due to the strong southerly winds
currently occurring through Alaska Range passes. Winds through
Alaska Range passes and Tanana Valley Jet winds near Delta
Junction will diminish this evening as an elongated surface
trough moves north over the area from the Gulf of Alaska. Light
snow is expected from this feature late this evening through
tomorrow morning mainly north and east of Fairbanks. Accumulations
will be 2 inches or less. Fairbanks may see a light dusting.
Northeast winds and blowing snow over Dalton Highway Summits will
diminish late this evening.
Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...None.
Extended Forecast For Days 4 Through 7...
An active weather pattern will continue across northern Alaska.
The high amplitude ridge Wednesday through Friday will bring
warmer than normal temperatures, except in valley locations that
remain beneath an inversion. Heavy precipitation is possible
across the West Coast and Western Interior Wednesday through
Friday, though models still disagree on the exact placement.
Precipitation may be mixed, with moisture for this storm moving
north from near the equator (!!!). At this time, forecast models
are keeping precipitation out of the central and eastern
Interior, but we will have to monitor this for possible changes,
as this pattern is conducive to freezing rain. Next weekend,
another low pressure system looks to move into the Bering Sea,
bringing another round of wind, snow, and possible blizzard
conditions to the West Coast.
&&
.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ802-832.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ817-821.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ818-820.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ803-825.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ822-827.
Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ824-826.
Winter Storm Warning for AKZ829-830.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ804.
Wind Advisory for AKZ837-849.
Blizzard Warning for AKZ805.
High Wind Warning for AKZ847.
PK...Gale Warning for PKZ801-809.
Gale Warning for PKZ802-803.
Storm Warning for PKZ804-850.
Gale Warning for PKZ805>807-817-852>854-856.
Gale Warning for PKZ808-810-816-855.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811-857.
Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ812.
Gale Warning for PKZ813.
Gale Warning for PKZ814-859-860.
Storm Warning for PKZ815-861.
Storm Warning for PKZ851.
Gale Warning for PKZ858.
&&
CHRIESTThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 blizzard. Local standard time, as filed.
Blizzard conditions developed the morning of the 7th and continued through the evening of the 7th. Alpine reported a peak wind gust of 43 mph during the event.
Blizzard conditions developed the morning of the 7th and continued through the evening of the 7th, first at Barter Island and then at Point Thomson. Barter Island reported a peak wind gust of 53 mph during the event, while Point Thomson reported a peak wind gust of 56 mph.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Alaska in 2024Every state in 2024This day in weather historyWarnings in Alaska, January 2024
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1157966, 1157967.