Blizzard and High Wind in Alaska, December 8 to 10, 2024

Northern Alaska Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Fairbanks AK
237 AM AKST Sun Dec 8 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The main story today is the low entering the southern Bering
bringing snow and rain to Western Alaska. This will begin as a
burst of moderate to heavy snow that switches to rain this
afternoon/evening in the valleys from the Seward Peninsula south.
Gusty winds may make for some blowing snow in St. Lawrence Island
and from Kotzebue to Point Lay tonight into tomorrow, but it will
be too warm elsewhere. Across the rest of the North Slope,
easterly gales develop on Monday. The Central/Eastern Interior
remains mostly dry, though there will be some light snow around
Bettles after midnight tonight and before noon tomorrow. A chinook
then develops with strong gap winds in the AK Range resulting in warm
temperatures, which leads to a stretch of dry weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Weather Impacts by Region...

Central and Eastern Interior...
- Strong gap winds in Isabel and Windy Passes. Gusts to 65 mph
  possible in Windy Pass today through Monday afternoon. Gusts to
  70 mph in Isabel Pass, and up to 60 mph in Delta Junction during
  the same time period.

- Light snow possible through noon today in Bettles, though
  accumulations will be minimal.

- Warm temperatures expected through next week with highs peaking
  on Monday.
	- Expect highs in the 30s across the Middle Tanana Valley on
   Monday, mid to upper 20s from Lake Minchumina to Coldfoot, and upper
   teens to low 20s from Northway to Fort Yukon.
	- Temperatures gradually drop a few degrees Tuesday and Wednesday.

West Coast and Western Interior...
- A burst of snow beginning by the early afternoon in the
  Yukon/Kuskokwim Valleys. Snow, heavy at times moves north to
  Nome/Galena by midnight and continues progressing north.
	- By midnight, rain will begin mixing in from Hooper Bay to
   McGrath. Air temperatures will be near or just above freezing
   by then and any rain will be light, and can freeze on the cold
   ground surface.
	- Warm temperatures, with highs in the mid to upper 30s continue
   moving north with rain likely in Nome by early afternoon in
   Nome. A few rain drops may mix in as far north as Huslia as
   well.

- Heaviest precipitation exits the area by Monday afternoon,
  though on and off rain showers are likely in low elevations,
  with higher elevation staying snow.

- Blowing snow is likely in Kotzebue with visibility to one-half
  mile expected Sunday night into Monday morning. A changeover to
  rain is expected there as well early Monday morning.

**Snowfall/freezing rain totals and timing can be found in the
advisories and warnings at weather.gov/afg .

North Slope and Brooks Range...
- Relatively quiet weather is expected for the North Slope today.

- Blowing snow continues from Point Lay south through Monday
  afternoon with a Winter Weather Advisory issued.

- Easterly winds increase to 25-35 mph across the Arctic Coast
  tonight and tomorrow.

- Snow moves into the Brooks Range and NW Arctic Coast tomorrow.

- Chinook conditions expected elsewhere Monday and Tuesday with
  strong south winds through the Brooks Range Passes and well
  above normal temperatures.

Analysis and Forecast Confidence...
High confidence in a messy storm today through Monday as a low
currently in the Northern Pacific moves into the southern Bering.
After this low passes, it will dry out by Tuesday - Wednesday.
Otherwise, warm temperatures persist in the Interior with little
to no precipitation. The North Slope will also be mild and mostly
dry due to a strong chinook flow.

Extended Forecast Days 4-7...
Warm weather continues for much of Northern Alaska. The Bering Sea
low will be out of the area on Wednesday, but a front sets up near
St. Lawrence Island on Wednesday, so there may be some lingering
rain/snow showers. A low in the Gulf then moves north near the
Kenai Peninsula on Thursday with moisture wrapping around the AK
Range from the southeast. At this time, a trough may be dropping
south from the Arctic as well. This can act as a "squeeze play"
and has the potential to bring very strong east winds to the
Arctic Coast and snow to the Interior which will be in the middle
of the trough to the north and low to the south. As of now, this
is low confidence, but snow chances look to increase for the
Central/Eastern Interior by late next week.

Coastal Hazard Potential Days 3 and 4...Nome may see water levels
1 to 3 feet above the normal high tide line on Monday night and
Tuesday, otherwise no coastal impacts are expected from this storm
system.

&&

.AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AK...Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ801.
     High Wind Warning for AKZ849.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ815>817.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ822-824.
     Winter Storm Warning for AKZ823-829.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ825-826-830.
     Winter Weather Advisory for AKZ827.
     Wind Advisory for AKZ837-847.
PK...Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ801.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ802-814.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ803>805-813-852-853-859-860.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ806>809-855-856.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ810.
     Brisk Wind Advisory for PKZ811.
     Gale Warning for PKZ812.
     Gale Warning for PKZ815-817-854.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ816.
     Gale Warning for PKZ816-851.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ817.
     Gale Warning for PKZ850.
     Heavy Freezing Spray Warning for PKZ854.
     Gale Warning for PKZ857.
     Gale Warning for PKZ858.
     Gale Warning for PKZ861.
&&

Bianco