Strong winds were reported at Arlington and Bordeaux wind-prone locations in southeast Wyoming on 11-12 November.
Every event with a place to put it; 2 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CYS wrote it up.
Strong winds were reported at Arlington and Bordeaux wind-prone locations in southeast Wyoming on 11-12 November.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Cheyenne, WY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 11, 10:20 AM MST, 30 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
1020 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023
.SHORT TERM...(Today - Sunday Night)
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023
High winds are the primary focus over the next 24 to 36 hours over
the southeast Wyoming wind corridors. H85/H7 CAG-CPR gradients are
expected to climb to between 60 and 65 meters after 12z this AM as
several waves of surface pressure falls spread across the northern
High Plains and western Dakotas. While wind gusts have only peaked
around 40 MPH in the Arlington area so far, expect chances for 60+
MPH gusts to increase markedly after sunrise. In-house guidance is
currently showing peak high wind probabilities in the 15z Saturday
to 06z Sunday time frame for ARL. As low-level gradients initially
peak around 15-18z today w/ the passage of a weak disturbance, can
not entirely rule out a couple of rogue gusts to 60 MPH across the
southern and central Laramie Range especially with the first surge
of low-level mixing, but generally modest flow aloft will probably
limit this potential. West-east oriented pressure gradients should
peak this evening and overnight with models suggesting a 3 to 5 mb
pressure gradient along the spine of the Laramie Range. Still some
concerns for BRX as the lee trough axis seems to stay west of I-25
in the models, but given a sharp omega couplet suggesting mountain
wave potential in addition to 50-55 knot 800-mb flow and a ARL-BRX
MSLP gradient approaching 5 millibars, confidence has increased in
high winds at BRX after 00z but more particularly from 06z through
12z. In-house Random Forest & Logistic Regression guidance at KBRX
both show a sufficient signal to warrant an upgrade to a High Wind
Warning for Bordeaux. Less confident for the I-80 Summit area with
the strongest flow aloft being more focused further north over BRX
overnight, but the GFS as well as some high-res guidance spills 50
knot flow into Foothills and lower elevations of Laramie County by
09z tonight, along with deep subsidence and a sharp inversion near
mountain top which would suggest mountain waves. Later shifts will
have a couple of extra model cycles to investigate. Mountain waves
could potentially spill into the I-25 corridor around 09z with GFS
soundings for KCYS showing a distinct stable layer aloft and 50-55
knots present within that layer for a brief period. High-res model
guidance including the NAMNest and Experimental RRFS suggest gusts
exceeding 50 MPH overnight Saturday night into Sunday morning into
the I-25 corridor. As such, have decided to add Central Laramie Co
including Cheyenne to a High Wind Watch from 00z-15z.
.LONG TERM...(Monday - Friday)
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023
Fairly quiet weather continues into the long term forecast period.
Expect well-above normal temperatures and limited chances for
precipitation through at least the middle of next week, and possibly
beyond.
A broad ridge will expand from the Rockies into the Great Plains by
Monday, with the jet stream well to the north. Ensemble guidance
shows 500-mb heights maximizing at around 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations above the norm, with the highest anomalies just to our
east over the central plains and into the midwest. 700-mb
temperatures spike to around +4 to +6C by Monday evening. This is
approaching the 90th percentile of climatology according to the
NAEFS mean, supporting highs some 10 to 15F warmer than average. A
weak shortwave passes to our north on Tuesday which may slightly
increase wind speeds across the area and knock down 700-mb
temperatures a touch over the northern part of the CWA. Highs should
be fairly similar to Monday. Wednesday looks similar with some
possible enhancement to warming with WSW warm air advection
increasing aloft ahead of the next shortwave. Currently looks like
Wednesday will be the warmest day of the week, but well above normal
temperatures with highs fairly close to one another can be expected
Monday through Wednesday. Overall, nudged temperatures up slightly
for this period, but fell short of records. Record highs do not look
particularly likely at this time with the ridge intensity and
temperatures aloft hovering around the 90th percentile.
Uncertainty grows somewhat by Thursday into the weekend. Most
guidance is now showing another shortwave passing to our north on
Thursday. Precipitation, if any, looks to be mainly limited to light
mountain snow showers. Expect cooler high temperatures compared to
Wednesday, but many areas should still manage to warm above seasonal
averages. One thing to watch for Thursday is the wind potential.
The GFS is showing a robust and widespread wind event, with decent
support from the deterministic ECMWF. However, this solution is an
outlier amongst the suite of GEFS members. Nudged the winds upward
slightly in the official forecast to expand the mention of breezy to
windy conditions, but didn't go too crazy with lower confidence and
model discrepancy. Ensemble guidance shows ridging trying to re-
establish itself on Friday with a closed low moving into the
California coast. This element has unusually strong ensemble
agreement for this lead time, but consensus deteriorates regarding
how the closed low will behave after moving inland. For now, have
PoPs returning to the forecast by the tail end of the period
associated with this feature.
&&
.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 1020 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023
VFR conditions expected to prevail across all terminals through the
valid TAF period. The main aviation concern will be strong mountain
wave westerly winds impacting the Wyoming terminals this afternoon
and again this evening in addition to some low level wind shear
concerns. Winds will become gusty for a brief period between 18-23z
before diminishing slightly. Peak wind gusts this afternoon will be
between 25-35 knots. Another round of gusty winds is expected
between 07-13z and this will be the window of concern for low level
wind shear across the; KCYS, KLAR, KBFF, KCDR, and KSNY terminals.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 249 AM MST Sat Nov 11 2023
Minimum RH values in the teens, coupled with periods of strong and
gusty winds may lead to elevated to near critical fire conditions,
especially across southeast Wyoming. However, thresholds should be
most likely to be exceeded over areas where fuels do not favor the
potential for large fire growth.
&&
.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...High Wind Warning from 8 AM this morning to 8 AM MST Sunday for
WYZ106.
High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for WYZ110.
High Wind Watch from 8 AM MST this morning through Sunday
morning for WYZ116-117.
High Wind Watch from this afternoon through Sunday morning for
WYZ118.
NE...None.
&&
SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...MN
AVIATION...AW
FIRE WEATHER...CLHThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
WYDOT site Bordeaux, 9 miles south of Wheatland reported this wind gust.
WYDOT site Arlington East, 2 miles east southeast of Arlington reported this peak wind gust.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Wyoming in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Wyoming, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140903, 1140902.