Strong Wind in Wyoming, May 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Salt Lake City UT
412 AM MDT Fri May 5 2023

.SYNOPSIS...As a California low pressure system slowly makes its
way through the area through the weekend, unsettled conditions
will prevail with temperatures closer to normal for this time of
year. As the trough exits Sunday, additional troughs will follow,
keeping conditions unsettled through at least midweek.

&&

.SHORT TERM (Through 12Z Sunday)...A large but weakening trough is
spinning over the Great Basin this morning. An ejecting shortwave
from the main system is exiting northern Utah, resulting in a lull
in precipitation that will continue into the afternoon. With
cooler air associated with this system continuing to move in, Utah
and southwest Wyoming will see temperatures steadily drop. Maxes
today are expected to range from near climo over northern Utah to
up to 10F below seasonal normals over southern Utah. This cooling
trend will lessen the amount of snowmelt impacting area waterways,
decreasing flooding concerns a bit. However, a few problem areas
will remain in the short term.

Showers are expected to begin to develop over the area by late
afternoon as the next ejecting shortwave moves into the area.
Focus of precip will shift into northern Utah this evening into
the overnight hours as the wave lifts northward. Overall, less
impressive dynamics combined with timing that limits the impact of
daytime heating will result in far less potential for strong to
severe convection, though a few strong wind gusts remain possible
this evening.

As the latest wave exits, brief shortwave ridging is expected to
develop for Saturday morning, resulting in another relative lull
in precipitation. However, by Saturday night the remainder of the
trough looks to lift northward, bringing another increase in
moisture and instability through Sunday.

.LONG TERM (After 12Z Sunday)...A mostly active weather pattern
remains in the forecast through the weekend and into the following
work week before uncertainty begins to grow. The story of lingering
showers and isolated thunderstorms will last through Sunday and at
least into the midweek period. The trough that has been over the
Great Basin will finally exit on Sunday but additional troughs are
expected to follow. These systems are expected to remain cooler
which could make for some high elevation snow and/or graupel.
While highs throughout the extended are much higher than about a
month ago as we sit in the 60s/70s for most valleys this is still
~5F cooler than the climatological norms.

Beyond Wednesday uncertainty begins to build between the likelihood
of two scenarios for the CWA. Model guidance is about 60/40 on these
scenarios with the uncertainty sitting within the latest low
pressure system's movement and development as it begins to move
eastward. The favored scenario within solutions would have the low
develop and amplify as it moves eastward which could bring more
statewide precipitation and for cooler conditions to stick around
into the weekend. The remainder of solutions favor this low to
weaken and ridge out bringing back high pressure and a
warming/drying trend over the Great Basin. We will continue to
monitor the progression of this low but for now expect mostly
unsettled and wet weather with climatologically cooler
temperatures on the horizon.

&&

.AVIATION...KSLC...VFR conditions are expected at the terminal other
than the presence of isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon
and early evening. Light southerly winds start the morning at
SLC. Winds remain southerly and become gusty with borderline AWW
gusts during the afternoon. Shower/tstorm outflows could make for
variable and erratic winds at time as well.

.REST OF UTAH AND SOUTHWEST WYOMING...VFR conditions are expected at
all the terminals in Utah and SW Wyoming other than the presence of
isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening, primarily
for northern sites. Light southerly winds start the morning and
remain southerly but become gusty during the afternoon.
Shower/tstorm outflows could make for variable and erratic winds
at times as well. Showers will persist over northern Utah through
the night hours as southern Utah stays dry.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...Flood Watch until 11 AM MDT this morning for UTZ107.

WY...None.

&&

SHORT TERM...Traphagan
LONG TERM/AVIATION...Selbig

For more information from NOAA's National Weather Service visit...
http://weather.gov/saltlakecity