Washington, 2023

Debris Flow in Washington, November 4, 2023

November 4, 2023 · NWS OTX · 1 event in 1 county or zone

A several day period of continuous rain caused a rock slide along Highway 20 near Sherman Pass. 1 inches fell from November 1 through November 4.

Where it happened

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
$500
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
1

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS OTX wrote it up.

A several day period of continuous rain caused a rock slide along Highway 20 near Sherman Pass. Rainfall amounts from 0.9 to 1.1 inches fell from November 1 through November 4.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Spokane, WA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 4, 4:40 AM PST, 1 hour 20 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 4, 4:40 AM PST, 1 hour 20 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Spokane WA
540 AM PDT Sat Nov 4 2023

.SYNOPSIS...
A wet storm system will spread rain across the Inland Northwest
today. Rain will produce ponding of water in poor drainage areas
and rises on small streams and creeks, but flooding is not
expected. Additional wet weather is expected Sunday night through
Tuesday with rain in the valleys and light snow in the mountains.
A period of drier weather looks likely around the middle of next
week and then a return of unsettled weather approaching next
weekend. Temperatures will be near normal through this weekend
into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

Today and Tonight: A moderately strong Atmospheric River, AR2 event,
will impact the Northwest over the next 24 hours. The warm
conveyor belt with a P-wat plume of near 1.5 inches can be seen on
satellite imagery being direct into the state of Washington early
this morning. Frontal passage will be in the afternoon and is
slightly delayed compared to model runs from 24 hours prior. This
will lead to rain hanging around an hour or two longer over
extreme eastern Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle today. It
looks likely that the Idaho Panhandle will see steady rain
continuing through much of the day and won't begin to start
shifting out of the Northeast Mountains and the Northern Panhandle
until this evening. Moderate to heavy rainfall totals are
expected over the Cascade crest of 2+ inches will be likely. These
totals will be similar to what we experienced with the precious
AR event we just had. Small streams, creeks, and the Stehekin
River in the east slopes of the Cascades will be seeing sharp
rises with the absent of snowpack to soak in all of this water.
The good news is that the moisture plume will shift south of these
areas by mid afternoon, and this should be soon enough that I
don't expect flooding issues to crop up. The Stehekin River will
be approaching bankfull and other rivers and streams will likely
be seeing debris coming down through the watershed. Minor rock
slides will also be possible.

It will be a wet start to the day across the rest of eastern
Washington. We should see the rain shutting off over the Columbia
Basin by the afternoon as the front slides east of the Cascades and
westerly flow results in downsloping on the lee side. Rainfall
totals around Wenatchee to the Okanogan Valley and Moses Lake Area
will be between a tenth and a quarter of an inch. Those totals will
be significantly higher in the more favorable upslope areas of the
Idaho Panhandle with around 0.75 to 1.25 inches expected. The
mountains in the Idaho Panhandle will see the potential for 1.5 to
2.0 inches when all said and down tonight. The main concern with
this rainfall will be for rises on small streams and for minor
slides in steep terrain. Paradise Creek that runs through Moscow
will see a sharp rise, but it's unlikely we will see enough rainfall
for this flashy creek to cause flooding impacts.

The atmosphere does destabilize behind the front this afternoon
across northern Oregon into southeast Washington. There will be a
small chance for thunderstorms to develop near the Blue Mountains
and storms could then move northeast into the Lewiston-Clarkston
Valley and Palouse. CAPE will be quite limited though, so I don't
expect much in the of lightning even if we do see convection develop
and move up into these areas. Any thunderstorms that develop will be
capable of brief heavy rain, pea sized hail, and gusty winds.

Sunday through Monday night: A break between weather systems is
expected on Sunday; however, we will continue to see moist upslope
flow into the Cascades and Idaho Panhandle where residual showers
will continue to be a possibility into Sunday afternoon. Another
storm system will move in Sunday night on the heels of the storm
today. It will be the third in the parade of storms rounding out the
weekend into early next week. This third storm system will feature a
moisture plume that will contain less in the way of total moisture
content than the previous two with lighter precipitation in
comparison. A frontal band will track across Sunday night into
Monday with around a tenth to a quarter of inch of precipitation
over the Columbia Basin and a half of an inch up to around an inch
over northeast Washington and into the Idaho Panhandle by Monday
night. Snow levels will also be lower with this storm at around
5,000 feet in the Cascades and Okanogan Highlands by Monday and
lowering further to around 4,500 feet overnight on Monday. This may
result in light snowfall over Stevens Pass and Sherman Pass Monday
night. /SVH

Tuesday through Friday: Unsettled pattern continues. Ensembles
suggest Tuesday starts out with an upper level trof with enough of a
conditionally unstable airmass pushing through to keep pops going
with westerly downslope keeping portions of the Western Columbia
Basin and Waterville Plateau trending toward a dry forecast. This
trof translates eastward rather quickly allowing for a drier
northwest flow ahead of ridging to expand the earlier mentioned rain
shadow out to the east and west Tuesday night into Wednesday with
ridging taking hold and allowing further drying Wednesday night into
Thursday. The ridging is expected to be quite transient as another
weather system with a weak and not very effective tap into
subtropical moisture passes through Thursday night into Friday. The
earlier discussed drier northwest flow Tuesday night into Wednesday
will allow enough cold air advection to drop snow levels down to the
near 3000-4000 feet MSL range Tuesday night into Wednesday. The
upper level ridging Wednesday night into Thursday will allow for
lower level surface winds from the northeast to bring in cooler air
further lowering the snow levels to near 3000 feet MSL. More or less
a general cooling trend in temperatures remains in place that
continues to at least Wednesday with more uncertainty and lower
confidence after. /Pelatti

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAFs: Rain across the Inland Northwest will produce widespread
IFR conditions today. Frontal passage will take place this
afternoon and enhanced dynamics along the front is expected to
produce a period of moderate rainfall rates with low IFR
conditions possible over extreme eastern Washington and the Idaho
Panhandle between 18Z-00Z. Marginal VFR conditions are more
likely at the Pullman/Moscow Airport (PUW) and Lewiston Airport
(LWS) today due to downsloping off of the higher terrain at these
terminals; however, the heavier rain with frontal passage may
result in IFR conditions between 19-23Z this afternoon. There is a
small chance for isolated thunderstorms in the vicinity of PUW
and LWS between 23-04Z this evening. Low stratus cover with IFR
conditions is expected to develop behind the front overnight into
Sunday morning impacting airports from Omak to Moses Lake to
Lewiston and points northeastward into the Idaho Panhandle.

There is high confidence with the forecast of rain and impacts
through this afternoon. There is low confidence for convection
and thunderstorms to develop this evening. /SVH

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Spokane        55  41  53  39  51  39 / 100  50  10  60 100  80
Coeur d'Alene  51  42  51  39  49  39 / 100  80  30  70 100  90
Pullman        53  40  54  39  51  38 / 100 100  20  70 100  90
Lewiston       58  45  59  44  57  43 / 100  90  20  60  90  80
Colville       48  31  49  32  47  32 / 100  50  20  70 100  90
Sandpoint      47  39  49  37  45  36 / 100  80  60  70 100 100
Kellogg        52  43  49  41  48  40 / 100 100  60  70 100 100
Moses Lake     54  35  54  39  55  37 / 100  10  10  60  80  40
Wenatchee      52  40  53  44  50  41 / 100  10  20  70  80  50
Omak           51  38  52  41  50  38 / 100  10  10  60  90  60

&&

.OTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...None.
WA...None.
&&

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

1 debris flow. Local standard time, as filed.

Debris Flow, Ferry

When
November 4, 6:00 AM PST to 8:15 AM PST
Where
Ferry County, 10.74 mi ESE of Torboy to 10.68 mi ESE of Torboy
Cause
Heavy Rain
Property damage
$500
Reported by
Department of Highways
Coordinates
48.610, -118.460

WSDOT cleared a rockslide on Highway 20 at MP320. No mention of how big the slide was.

What these are

Debris Flow
A fast-moving slurry of mud, rock and debris, usually on a slope soaked by heavy rain or stripped by a fire.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Washington in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, November 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149092.