Marine conditions were deteriorating as a northerly swell arrived to the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico. As a result, the risk of rip currents increased to high, and a High Rip Current Statement was in effect.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS SJU wrote it up.
Marine conditions were deteriorating as a northerly swell arrived to the Atlantic waters of Puerto Rico. As a result, the risk of rip currents increased to high, and a High Rip Current Statement was in effect.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS San Juan, PR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Nov 3, 9:33 PM AST, 2 hours 27 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Juan PR
933 PM AST Fri Nov 3 2023
.UPDATE...
The afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorm activity over the
central interior and west PR moved off and dissipated just after sunset
leaving mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. However the moderate
to strong low level easterlies continued to bring periods of showers
across the coastal waters between eastern Puerto Rico and the U.S.
Virgin Islands, as well as over the Caribbean waters. Recent TJSJ
04/00Z upper air sounding suggests ESE wnds 20-25 MPH 500 millibars
then backing bcmg NE and incr w/ht ABV. Expect this pattern to continue
overnight with some showers brushing the windward side of the islands
from time to time. The area of suspended Saharan dust particulates
that affected the region today will continue to diminish and move
off overnight. Otherwise no change to the inherited short term
forecast and reasoning.
&&
.AVIATION...VFR durg prd. SCT Ocnl BKN lyrs nr FL025...FL050. Wdly
SCT SHRA ovr regional waters and en route btw islands. VCSH at
TJSJ/TISX/TIST til 04/12Z.SFC wnd calm to light and variable,
increasing to 10-15 kts with higher gusts and some enhanced sea
breeze variations after 04/14Z.
&&
From previous discussion issued at 600 PM AST Fri Nov 3 2023./
.SYNOPSIS...The proximity of a surface-induced trough and a TUTT
low will continue to promote variable weather conditions into the
weekend. With a northerly swell spreading across the local
Atlantic waters, expect deteriorating marine conditions. A Small
Craft Advisory will be in effect from 8 PM AST tonight through
Saturday afternoon for the offshore Atlantic Waters due to wave
heights up to 7 feet. A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in
effect from 6 AM AST tomorrow through 6 AM AST Sunday for the
north oriented beaches of Puerto Rico,from Aguadilla to Carolina.
Heat risk continues to be a concern with some urban and coastal
areas reaching above 108 degrees each late morning to afternoon.
An increased risk of flooding is likely by early next week as a
series of surface-induced and mid-to- upper-level troughs affect
the local area.
&&
.SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday...
Current Satellite Derived Precipitable Water (PWAT) values show up
to 1.7 inches over most of Puerto Rico, at normal values for this
time of the year. A patch of drier air is notably now over eastern
Puerto Rico, Vieques, Culebra and St. Thomas. This patch has PWAT
values of around 1.20 to 1.35 inches, below normal values for
this time of the year. This drier patch will continue moving
westward across the islands this evening and tonight. Current
model guidance indicates normal to below normal values throughout
the weekend, with a drier air mass with values around and below
1.5 inches being present for most of tomorrow, overall PWAT values
increasing to around 1.6 on Sunday, and more humid air filtering
in from the southwest by late Sunday night and into the long term
period. At surface level a high pressure system over the eastern
Atlantic will continue to promote breezy easterly winds aross the
island. Wind speeds should somewhat diminish during the weekend
as a surface induced trough south of the region relaxes the
pressure gradient. In the upper levels, a high pressure system is
centered over the western Greater Antilles and a retrogressing
TUTT low extends to over the eastern Caribbean Sea mainly south of
our region, leaving our local area on the west side of the TUTT.
Low concentration of saharan dust particles will continue to
diminish throughout the period. With our area being on the west
side of the upper trough and only up to normal columnar moisture,
stronger shower and isolated thunderstorm activity will be mostly
during the afternoon and mainly for interior to western Puerto
Rico, with convection also possible downwind of the local smaller
islands. Passing showers are also possible across windward
sectors of the islands during the morning and night hours. Heat
risk continues to be a concern with some urban and coastal areas
reaching above 108 degrees each late morning to afternoon. Minimum
temperatures tonight will be in the upper 70s to near 80 across
lower elevations of the islands, and in the 60s across higher
elevations of Puerto Rico.
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 505 AM AST Fri Nov 3 2023/.
According to the latest model guidance, which has remained
relatively consistent over the past few days, expect wet and
unsettled weather conditions to persist throughout the long-term
forecast period. The synoptic pattern early in the week is
complex, transitioning from the influence of an upper-level ridge
to a strong mid-to-upper-level polar trough. This trough will
remain in close proximity to the north of the local islands until
midweek, replaced by another weaker trough that will likely sweep
eastward across the northern Caribbean through the latter part of
the workweek. These features will maintain a relatively weak
trade wind cap inversion, if significant, and create marginally
unstable conditions conducive to deep convective development. At
the lower levels, a surface-induced trough and subsequent easterly
disturbances will maintain an influx of tropical moisture.
Initially, under light winds with a south-southeasterly component,
yielded by the trough, gradually increasing and veering more from
the east from Thursday onwards.
The combination of multiple elements in this scenario, marked by
persistently above-normal precipitable water values exceeding 2
inches, relatively cooler mid-level temperatures reaching as low
as -7 degrees Celsius, and a light steering flow, suggests the
likelihood of increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The
Galvez-Davison Index supports this trend, and such slow-moving
thunderstorms could result in excessive rainfall and lightning
impacts. There is also a likelihood of excessive heat hazard
risks, especially in areas experiencing extended rain-free periods
in the early part of the week.
&&
.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...
./FROM PREV DISCUSSION...Issued at 505 AM AST Fri Nov 3 2023/.
According to the latest model guidance, which has remained
relatively consistent over the past few days, expect wet and
unsettled weather conditions to persist throughout the long-term
forecast period. The synoptic pattern early in the week is
complex, transitioning from the influence of an upper-level ridge
to a strong mid-to-upper-level polar trough. This trough will
remain in close proximity to the north of the local islands until
midweek, replaced by another weaker trough that will likely sweep
eastward across the northern Caribbean through the latter part of
the workweek. These features will maintain a relatively weak
trade wind cap inversion, if significant, and create marginally
unstable conditions conducive to deep convective development. At
the lower levels, a surface-induced trough and subsequent easterly
disturbances will maintain an influx of tropical moisture.
Initially, under light winds with a south-southeasterly component,
yielded by the trough, gradually increasing and veering more from
the east from Thursday onwards.
The combination of multiple elements in this scenario, marked by
persistently above-normal precipitable water values exceeding 2
inches, relatively cooler mid-level temperatures reaching as low
as -7 degrees Celsius, and a light steering flow, suggests the
likelihood of increased shower and thunderstorm activity. The
Galvez-Davison Index supports this trend, and such slow-moving
thunderstorms could result in excessive rainfall and lightning
impacts. There is also a likelihood of excessive heat hazard
risks, especially in areas experiencing extended rain-free periods
in the early part of the week.
&&
.AVIATION...At TJBQ, afternoon SHRA/TSRA could result in brief MVFR
conditions between 03/17-22Z. Very brief MVFR conditions are also
possible across TJSJ and USVI terminals this afternoon due to SHRA
through 03/22Z. Breezy wind conditions of up to 20 knots from the
ESE with higher gusts will persist thru 03/22z. Light and variable
winds below 10 knots, increasing to 8-12 knots with higher gusts and
significant sea breeze variations after 04/14Z.
&&
.MARINE...CARICOOS buoys near Arecibo, San Juan, Ponce, Vieques,
and St. John, currently indicate from 3-5 ft across the local
waters, with the bouy near Rincon indicating 2.0 ft. Marine
conditions will deteriorate as a northerly swell continues to
propagate across the local Atlantic waters into Saturday. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory will be in effect for the offshore
Atlantic Waters due to wave heights up to 7 feet. The advisory
comes into effect at 8 PM AST tonight, continuing through Saturday
afternoon.
A High Risk of Rip Currents will be in effect from 6 AM AST
tomorrow through 6 AM AST Sunday for the north oriented beaches
of Puerto Rico,from Aguadilla to Carolina.
&&
.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST Saturday through late
Saturday night for PRZ001-005-008.
VI...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM AST Saturday for AMZ711.
&&
SHORT TERM...RAM
LONG TERM....RC
AVIATION...RAMPerspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo...CORRECCION Servicio Nacional de Meteorología San Juan PR 432 AM AST viernes 3 de noviembre de 2023 AMZ711>745-PRZ001>013-040815- San Juan y Vecindad-Noreste-Sureste-Este Interior-Norte Central- Central Interior-Ponce y Vecindad-Noroeste-Oeste Interior-Mayagüez y Vecindad-Suroeste-Culebra-Vieques-Aguas cercanas y fuera de la costa del Atlántico y del Caribe- 432 AM AST viernes 3 de noviembre de 2023 Esta perspectiva sobre las condiciones peligrosas del tiempo es para sectores de Puerto Rico. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Rayos...Tronadas aisladas son posibles a través del oeste interior de Puerto Rico. Esté atento a las tronadas en su área y esté preparado para buscar refugio. .Lluvia Excesiva...Acumulación de agua en las carreteras y áreas mal drenadas a través de los sectores del oeste. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles. .Calor Excesivo...Índice de calor de 108-111 grados a través de las áreas urbanas y costeras del norte y oeste de Puerto Rico. Agotamiento por calor probable con exposición prolongada. Es posible un golpe de calor. .Viento...Condiciones de brisa fuerte a través de las áreas costeras y las islas locales. Los artículos no asegurados podrían salir volando. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico esta noche. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida son posibles en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente a través del norte, el este, Culebra y Vieques. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...sábado a jueves Amenaza de calor excesivo limitada con índices de calor de 102-107 grados son posibles cada día en áreas urbanas y costeras. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles cada tarde, principalmente a través de los sectores del oeste de Puerto Rico, e incluso más durante la próxima semana. Se espera un aumento de los vientos alisios y una marejada moderada del norte entre el sábado y el lunes. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, oleaje y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan. AMZ716-726-VIZ001-002-040815- San Thomas San John e islas adyacentes-Santa Cruz- Aguas cercanas a la costa del Atlántico y aguas costeras adyacentes del Caribe- 432 AM AST viernes 3 de noviembre de 2023 Esta Perspectiva sobre las Condiciones Peligrosas del Tiempo es para sectores de las Islas Vírgenes Americanas. .DÍA UNO...Hoy y esta noche .Calor Excesivo...Índice de calor de 102-107 grados a través de todas las islas. Agotamiento por calor es posible con una exposición prolongada. .Viento...Condiciones de brisa fuerte. Los artículos no asegurados podrían salir volando. .Condiciones Marítimas...Oleaje igual o mayor de 7 pies a través de las aguas del Atlántico esta noche. Condiciones peligrosas para embarcaciones pequeñas. .Corrientes Marinas...Las corrientes marinas que amenacen la vida son posibles en la zona de olas rompientes, particularmente en las playas del norte de las islas. .DÍAS DOS A SIETE...sábado a jueves Amenaza de calor excesivo limitada con índices de calor de 102-107 grados son posibles cada día en áreas urbanas y costeras. Las inundaciones urbanas y de riachuelos son posibles durante la próxima semana. Se espera un aumento de los vientos alisios y una marejada moderada del norte entre el sábado y el lunes. .COMUNICADO SOBRE INFORMACIÓN REPORTADA POR OBSERVADORES... Se les exhorta a los observadores a reportar. Favor de reportar cualquier información sobre inundaciones, vientos, olas y corrientes marinas al Servicio Nacional de Meteorología en San Juan.
1 rip current. Local standard time, as filed.
Emergency Managers reported that a 13 year old male was swept away by rip currents in Montones Beach in Isabela. After about a week of searching, authorities stated that he is presumed dead and the body was carried out to sea.
As the offices recorded each death: direct deaths were caused by the weather itself, indirect ones by something it set in motion.
| Event | Date | Age | Sex | Where | Kind |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rip Current, Northwest | 2023-11-04 | 13 | Male | In Water | Direct |
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Puerto Rico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Puerto Rico, November 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1149089.