A stacked upper level low pressure system drifted from the Ohio River Valley to eastern Kentucky during the early morning hours of the 20th. 7 inch range along the crest of the Blue Ridge in Virginia south of Roanoke.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
A stacked upper level low pressure system drifted from the Ohio River Valley to eastern Kentucky during the early morning hours of the 20th. South-southeasterly windflow around the low was efficient in transporting deep moisture into the area from the coastal Carolinas, allowing precipitable water values to rise into the 1.5 to 1.7 inch range along the crest of the Blue Ridge in Virginia south of Roanoke. Winds were nearly unidirectional with height around the low, with speeds varying between 15kt and 25kt between 925mb and 500mb per Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Analysis. Most-Unstable CAPEs along the Blue Ridge varied between 500 and 750 J/Kg through the night, but increased to around 1,000 J/Kg at around 5 AM/09 UTC as a wave of energy passed across the area. Multiple bands of training cells developed along the Blue Ridge.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jun 19, 5:52 AM EST, 1 hour 8 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 652 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A slow moving low pressure system will meander across the Tennessee Valley this week leading to periods of rain and isolated to scattered thunderstorms. Temperatures will be below normal. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 634 AM EDT Monday... Slowed timing of showers down a few hours per latest radar trends, but expect the coverage to ramp up by early afternoon. Previous discussion... Prepare for much needed rain, but could get excessive... This morning water vapor loop showed upper low pressure spinning across the lower Ohio Valley, with deep convection across the TN Valley into the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, a warm front stretched from mid TN into far southwest VA, then south into NC. High level clouds were increasing across the region, with the mid deck entering the upper TN Valley. We will see the atmosphere start to saturate from top to to bottom over the course of the next 12-24 hours, while the surface low slowly tracks east at a snails pace while surface high sits across New England. At 5h the upper low should gradually settle southeast across mid TN this evening. This will put our forecast area in periods of good upper forcing/difluence. This combined with a southeast to east fetch between the warm front across the Carolinas and the high over New England anticipate showers and scattered thunderstorms to occur across most of the forecast area by late this afternoon. Leaning toward the HRRR and other convective allowing models shows showers reaching the mountains of NC/far SW VA shortly after dawn to 9am, then taking on a banded nature as we head into the afternoon, especially across the piedmont. Convective parameters indicate weak instability due to increased cloud cover but higher pwats and steep low level lapse rates, if we get any heating could allow for a few stronger storms across NC. The main concern will be later this afternoon into tonight, as several upper vorts rotate north, east of the upper low and model showing several bands of moderate to heavier showers pushing across the mountains and foothills of NC into southwest VA. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are possible. Although we have been rather dry, a few rounds of heavier downpours could cause localized flooding concerns. Since we are waiting to see how things pan out, holding off on any flood watches. However, the pattern this week will likely result in watches being issued based on model trends. Despite this environment, the precipitable water values will be at or just above normal. Highest rainfall rates will occur in thunderstorms where 3"+/hr possible, while outside any deep convection rates could be a half inch to an inch per hour. Looking at increased humidity today into tonight. High temperatures to day will be dependent on any insolation and timing of rainfall. Went cooler, close to MET in the mountains with upper 60s to mid 70s, while warmer toward EC guidance in the piedmont with mid 80s. Given cloudy skies and periods of rain kept lows in the 60s tonight. Forecast confidence is high on probability of precipitation and sky cover as well as wind, but average on amount of rain, threat of severe and temps. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 311 AM EDT Monday... Rain continues throughout the week... A closed off upper-low will meander through the Tennessee Valley, centered just to our southwest on Tuesday, and will remain in the same place throughout this forecast period. Meanwhile, high pressure to the north wedges south. In between these two features will be a zone of potentially heavy rainfall. Guidance has come into better agreement of the upper low centering to the southwest over Tennessee and northern Alabama. A zone of strong southeast 850mb transport winds will setup perpendicular to the Blue Ridge. In some instances, will see some 850mb winds out of the southeast in the 40-50kt range. This will advect moisture laden air from the Atlantic and lift it into the higher elevations of Virginia and North Carolina. Modeled PWAT values throughout the week are in the 1.5 inch range and a quick look at the NAEFS shows PWAT values of 1.5 are around 125 of normal. Although not overly high, rainfall could be heavy/efficient, especially along the Foothills and the crest of the Blue Ridge with local upslope enhancement. Widespread flooding is not of immediate concern at first, especially with dry antecedent conditions. With rain continuing to saturate the ground, a more widespread flooding threat may evolve as the week progresses and would expect some Flood Watches to be issued in subsequent forecasts updates. Currently think thunderstorm chances will be rather limited owing to considerable cloud cover and wedging high pressure from the north. This will keep temperatures cooler and should limit instability, but could still have a few isolated/scattered embedded thunderstorms. Highs throughout the period will be in the upper 60s to low 70s. Lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 311 AM EDT Monday... Daily rain chances will continue into the weekend... Closed upper low still influencing the weather locally with continued rainfall into the weekend. Guidance showing the upper low will begin to dislodge and shift north back into the Ohio Valley Friday/Saturday. However, rainfall looks to become more scattered in nature by Saturday, but any popup thunderstorm downpours could exacerbate any ongoing flooding issues, or create new issues due to the expected low FFG. Off and on showers/thunderstorms will continue into Monday. Temperatures rebound back to near normal for June with highs in the upper 70s to mid/upper 80s. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Monday... Still looking at VFR this morning, then showers moving in from the southwest by late morning through the afternoon, with a few thunderstorms. Added VCTS to all taf sites mainly in the afternoon. Overall will not rain the entire time this afternoon into tonight but more on than off so kept showers going through the end of the taf period. As we saturate, ceilings will drop to MVFR and lower, with the lower ceilings occurring after 00z, but then bouncing between IFR and MVFR through 12z Tuesday. Visibilities overall will be MVFR to VFR, but heavier downpours will likely drop to IFR or lower, but just mainly less than 30 minutes so kept vsbys more optimistic. Winds will be mainly southeast to east in the 5 to 10kt range but some gusts are possible after 18z to 20kts. Forecast confidence is high pertaining to VFR this morning dropping to MVFR or lower by late afternoon, and average on vsbys with showers. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Deep east to southeast upslope wind on Tuesday will result in widespread IFR to possible LIFR ceilings, and MVFR visibility with fog along and east of the Blue Ridge. Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms continue through Friday. These will mainly occur in the afternoon to evening hours, and will generate widespread sub-VFR most of the time. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...AMS/WP NEAR TERM...WP SHORT TERM...BMG LONG TERM...BMG AVIATION...DS/WP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 NCZ005-006-VAZ007-009>014-017>020-022>024-033>035-043>047-058-059- WVZ042>044-507-508-200830- Rockingham-Caswell-Tazewell-Smyth-Bland-Giles-Wythe-Pulaski- Montgomery-Floyd-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath-Roanoke-Botetourt- Rockbridge-Franklin-Bedford-Amherst-Henry-Pittsylvania-Campbell- Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into tonight may bring heavy rainfall. Localized flooding is possible. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms through the remainder of the week may cause localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk. NCZ001>004-018>020-VAZ015-016-032-200830- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Watauga-Wilkes-Yadkin-Grayson-Carroll- Patrick- 426 AM EDT Mon Jun 19 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina and southwest Virginia. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Showers and scattered thunderstorms will move across the area today into tonight. Some of the storms may become strong to severe with isolated damaging winds possible. Also, heavy downpours from multiple rounds of rain may lead to localized flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the week. Torrential downpours on increasingly wet ground may lead to more of a flooding threat. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed. Reports should be submitted by phone by calling 1-866-215-4324, social media, by email at rnk.skywarn@noaa.gov or online at www.weather.gov/rnk.
The Roanoke radar (KFCX), 13 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 11:58 UTC.
5 flash flood, 3 heavy rain. Local standard time, as filed.
A personal weather station recorded a 24-hour rainfall total ending 8:00 AM EDT on the 20th of 3.87 inches.
A personal weather station recorded a 24-hour rainfall total ending 8:00 AM EDT on the 20th of 4.26 inches. Runoff from this location flows into the Little River.
A personal weather station recorded a 24-hour rainfall total ending 8:00 AM EDT on the 20th of 3.66 inches. Runoff from this location flows into the Smith River.
Flooding was observed near along Dodd Creek near Haycock Road and the Blue Ridge Parkway.
Water was observed flowing several inches deep over Woods Gap Road as Dodd Creek flooded out of its banks.
Little Sycamore Creek was observed overflowing its banks and flowing several inches deep across Pilson Sawmill Road. No damage was reported.
Rock Castle Creek was observed overflowing its banks across Lee Elgin Road several inches deep. No damage to the road was reported.
Little Widgeon Creek was observed flowing out of its banks and across Woods Gap Road several inches deep. No damage to the road was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, June 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1114876, 1114877, 1114879, 1114842, 1114856, 1114828, 1114833, 1114836.