Unstable air along a pressure trough well ahead of a cold front over the Ohio River Valley sparked scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Localized wind damage was reported in northern Maryland, and a considerably severe thunderstorm affected parts of the central Shenandoah Valley in Virginia.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LWX wrote it up.
Unstable air along a pressure trough well ahead of a cold front over the Ohio River Valley sparked scattered thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours. Localized wind damage was reported in northern Maryland, and a considerably severe thunderstorm affected parts of the central Shenandoah Valley in Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Baltimore/Washington wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 6, 7:31 PM EST, 18 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 831 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 .SYNOPSIS... Large scale troughing will build to the north and west of the region this weekend, then persist through early next week leading to unsettled conditions. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of mid evening, a few clusters of showers and thunderstorms lingered across the area: (1) west of Hagerstown MD, and (2) near Shenandoah Mountain into the central Shenandoah Valley. Brief heavy downpours and lightning strikes look to be the main threats as nocturnal stability begins to build, but a brief flare up of heavier rain or gusty winds can't be ruled out. Any thunderstorms should quickly dissipate late this evening with further loss of surface heating, leading to dry conditions overnight. Patchy fog may form in spots overnight, especially in locations that received rain this afternoon. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... Large scale troughing will build to our north and west later tomorrow into this weekend. A disturbance will rotate through this broader trough toward the eastern Great Lakes tomorrow. We'll find ourselves located within the right entrance region of an upper level jet streak associated with this feature. This jet entrance region, along with a weak surface trough should provide more organization to the thunderstorm development tomorrow. Storms are expected to form within the aforementioned surface trough in the vicinity of I-81 early tomorrow afternoon, and slowly progress eastward toward I-95 through the afternoon and early evening hours. Although there will be a bit more organization with around 10-15 knots of westerly flow in the mid- levels, outflow boundary collisions may still play a role in the convective evolutions as storms drift toward the east. Instability will be a bit higher compared to today, with around 1500-2000 J/kg of MLCAPE present. As a result, storms tomorrow afternoon will be a bit stronger, and some instances of gusty winds may be possible along with these storms. With the greater storm organization, stronger large scale forcing for ascent, and slightly higher precipitable water values, the threat for flooding also appears to be higher. We currently have a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall from WPC across much of our area. Thunderstorm activity is once again expected to dissipate shortly after dark, with areas of patchy fog possible overnight. Additional thunderstorms will be possible again on Saturday as another disturbance rotates through the broad trough off to our north and west. Highs on Saturday will be in the upper 80s to near 90. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... On Sunday, a surface low pressure system may begin to form near or over the forecast area. Precipitation chances definitely increase throughout the day with abundant moisture nearby. Instability and shear look favorable but there may be cloud debris that could keep the severe thunderstorm potential down and mainly lead to a flooding threat for the most part. The low location and intensity will help steer the potential hazards so further monitoring is needed ahead of the system. By Monday, the system should be further south and east with the associated cold front crossing the area. Depending on the frontal location will dictate potential impacts to the region. For the middle of the week, frontal forcing weakens and typical summertime shower and thunderstorm chances continue but intensity will likely be below severe potential at this point. Mostly dry conditions are expected at this point for that period. Highs will be in the 80s to low 90s for the lower elevations throughout the period with 70s for the mountains and higher terrain. Overnight lows will be in the 50s and 60s. && .AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Prevailing VFR conditions are expected through Saturday. However, thunderstorms appear possible each afternoon, potentially leading to temporary restrictions. Winds will be relatively light out of the south outside of thunderstorms, with brief stronger winds driven by thunderstorms and thunderstorm outflows. VCTS will be likely Sunday with numerous showers and thunderstorms expected for the terminals. Slightly lower chances for showers and thunderstorms but a cold front's position will control the uncertainty for hazards. Sub-VFR conditions will brief but possible for the end of the weekend and into early next week. && .MARINE... Prevailing light south to southeasterly winds are expected over the waters through Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible each day through Saturday, with the greatest coverage in the afternoon hours. SMWs may be needed at times in association with these thunderstorms. SCA's will be possible Sunday and Monday with a tighter pressure gradient. Special Marine Warnings may be needed Sun/Mon for any thunderstorms that cross the waters. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... A light onshore to south flow is most likely through the end of the week. This will cause elevated water levels around times of high tide. The most likely scenario is for many areas to reach action stages. However, minor tidal flooding cannot be ruled out, especially at sensitive locations like Straits Point, Annapolis, and DC SW Waterfront. && .LWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... DC...None. MD...None. VA...None. WV...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...DHOF/KJP NEAR TERM...DHOF/KJP SHORT TERM...KJP LONG TERM...ADM AVIATION...DHOF/KJP/ADM MARINE...DHOF/KJP/ADM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...LWX
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 709 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 ANZ530>543-DCZ001-MDZ008-011-013-014-016>018-504-506-508- VAZ053>057-527-072315- Chesapeake Bay north of Pooles Island MD- Chesapeake Bay from Pooles Island to Sandy Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Sandy Point to North Beach MD- Chesapeake Bay from North Beach to Drum Point MD- Chesapeake Bay from Drum Point MD to Smith Point VA- Tidal Potomac from Key Bridge to Indian Head MD- Tidal Potomac from Indian Head to Cobb Island MD- Tidal Potomac from Cobb Island MD to Smith Point VA- Patapsco River including Baltimore Harbor- Chester River to Queenstown MD-Eastern Bay- Choptank River to Cambridge MD and the Little Choptank River- Patuxent River to Broomes Island MD- Tangier Sound and the inland waters surrounding Bloodsworth Island-District of Columbia-Cecil-Southern Baltimore- Prince Georges-Anne Arundel-Charles-St. Marys-Calvert- Central and Southeast Montgomery-Central and Southeast Howard- Southeast Harford-Fairfax-Arlington/Falls Church/Alexandria- Stafford-Spotsylvania-King George- Central and Southeast Prince William/Manassas/Manassas Park- 709 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Maryland portion of the Chesapeake Bay, Tidal Potomac River, and I-95 corridor through central Maryland, northern Virginia, and District of Columbia. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall through this evening, which could cause an isolated instance of flooding, mainly in sensitive urban and suburban areas. Additionally, there may be an isolated severe thunderstorm or two this evening. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, which could cause scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ003>006-503-505-507-VAZ025>031-036>040-050-051-501-502-505>508- 526-WVZ050>053-055-072315- Washington-Frederick MD-Carroll-Northern Baltimore- Northwest Montgomery-Northwest Howard-Northwest Harford-Augusta- Rockingham-Shenandoah-Frederick VA-Page-Warren-Clarke-Nelson- Albemarle-Greene-Madison-Rappahannock-Orange-Culpeper- Northern Fauquier-Southern Fauquier-Western Loudoun- Eastern Loudoun-Northern Virginia Blue Ridge- Central Virginia Blue Ridge-Northwest Prince William-Hampshire- Morgan-Berkeley-Jefferson-Hardy- 709 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of eastern West Virginia, northern and central Virginia, and central and western Maryland. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall this evening, which could cause an isolated instance of flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon into Sunday night, which could cause scattered instances of flooding or flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. MDZ001-501-502-VAZ503-504-WVZ501>506-072315- Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Central and Eastern Allegany- Western Highland-Eastern Highland-Western Grant-Eastern Grant- Western Mineral-Eastern Mineral-Western Pendleton- Eastern Pendleton- 709 PM EDT Thu Jul 6 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Allegheny Front counties in western Maryland, eastern West Virginia, and Highland County Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday Thunderstorms will be capable of producing locally heavy rainfall Sunday afternoon, which could cause isolated instances of flooding or flash flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC
504 PM EDT Thu Jul 06 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0210 PM Tstm Wnd Dmg 3 N Watersville 39.40N 77.10W
07/06/2023 Carroll MD Trained Spotter
Several trees and branches blew down near Watersville,
including near the intersection of Flag Marsh Road and
Watersville Road, Watersville Road and Gillis Falls
Road, and Gillis Falls Road and John Pickett Road.
&&
Event Number LWX2301322
DHThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 145 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 00:49 UTC.
3 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
There were several reports of trees, tree limbs and wires blown down in Bridgewater, including on East College Street, and in the 200 block of Tiffany Drive.
Dozens of trees blew down and the roof of a barn partially blew off in Mount Crawford.
A few trees blew down in western Albemarle County.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107674, 1107675, 1107676.