Scattered thunderstorms associated with a surface trough of low pressure produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central Virginia.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AKQ wrote it up.
Scattered thunderstorms associated with a surface trough of low pressure produced heavy rain which caused flash flooding across portions of central Virginia.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 1:47 PM EST, 4 hours 58 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 247 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 .SYNOPSIS... High pressure will remain centered off the southeast coast into next week. Several disturbances will bring the chance for scattered showers and thunderstorms each afternoon into early next week before a very weak cold front pushes toward the area late Monday into Tuesday. Afternoon heat index values will remain between 95 and 105 degrees in most areas through next week. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... Afternoon wx analysis shows a well defined upper low over Manitoba/wrn Ontario, with a broad upper trough over much of the central/ern CONUS. Strong ridging remains in place over the desert southwest. A shortwave aloft (and associated sfc low pressure system) is tracking through the TN Valley. Locally, winds are light out of the south with SW flow aloft in advance of that feature. PWs have increased to 1.7-2.0" inland and to ~2.2" near the coast. Scattered tstms have developed across extreme SE VA/NE NC. While these have been efficient rain producers (EDE reported over 1.3" in 30 mins about an hour ago), they have been moving at a decent clip considering that it is the middle of July. Showers/tstms (most numerous in Hampton Roads/NE NC) will continue near the coast before weakening after 7-8 PM. In addition, isolated tstms are possible inland after 4-5 PM, but PoPs are only 20-30%. Widespread severe wx/flooding is not expected. However, cannot completely rule out a stronger storm or two near the coast (along with localized urban/poor drainage flooding). Numerous showers/tstms have developed across the OH/TN Valleys (near that shortwave). The shortwave is progged to cross the mountains tonight with scattered showers and isolated tstms expected after 10 PM in the Piedmont. While most of the CAMs show the showers and tstms weakening a bit during the early morning, will maintain chance PoPs and the mention of thunder through much of the night to account for better upper support with the approach of the shortwave trough. Temperatures are around 90F with heat indices of 95-100F inland/100-105F near the coast. Remaining warm/humid tonight with low temps mostly in the mid to upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... The 12z/15 guidance is a little bit slower with the passage of the shortwave, and it is now progged to exit the area by midday-early aftn on Sunday. As mentioned previously, there will also be a weak sfc low/trough tracking from wrn VA to the nrn Mid-Atlantic in association with that shortwave aloft. Showers (and perhaps a few tstms) will likely be ongoing near I-95 at the start of the day, and at least scattered showers/isolated tstms will continue through late morning-midday (especially E of I-95). While PWs near the coast will be quite high (2.2-2.5"), the deep layer flow will be fast enough for the storms to have some motion to them. Regardless, there is still a risk for localized flooding during the morning. Additional development of scattered tstms is likely during the aftn, especially near the coast. Some of the CAMs are trying to show a remnant MCV tracking through the area (behind the shortwave) during the aftn, but it is difficult to forecast the location of this type of feature a day in advance. If this does happen, there may be more coverage of tstms across inland areas than is currently forecast. There is a threat for localized flash flooding with the aftn convection as well (mainly in urban/flood prone areas). In addition, SPC has the northeast half of the area in a MRGL Risk for severe wx (mainly for localized damaging wind gusts) given somewhat stronger flow aloft over the northern Mid-Atlantic into New England. Some diurnal weakening will occur after 7 PM or so, but convection may linger near the coast through 10 PM- midnight. Afternoon high temperatures will depend heavily on when and where convection is able to form but most locations should top out around 90F. Deeper moisture will be found along and east of I-95 where heat indices of 100-105F are possible. Overnight low temps range from the upper 60s NW to the low/mid 70s SE. Models show a very weak cold front crossing most of the region on Monday with somewhat drier air moving in from the NW during the afternoon. While most of the convection Mon aftn/evening will be across E/SE NC (south of the FA), a few tstms could form near the front in SE VA but chances are a bit higher in NE NC near the Albemarle Sound. It will likely a few degrees warmer over much of the area given less cloud cover, with forecast highs in the 90-93F range with heat index values in the upper 90s-lower 100s. Lows Mon night in the upper 60s to low 70s. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... Ridging aloft remains in place over the SW CONUS through the end of next week, with W to NW flow aloft over the Mid-Atlantic through much of the period. There will be low-end chances for tstms each day as multiple shortwaves in the flow aloft track near/over the local area. Timing of shortwaves in NW flow aloft is tricky, so have maintained slight chc to chc PoPs each day (highest during the aftn/evening). Temperatures through the period will be quite warm with low to mid 90s expected Tuesday through Friday. Afternoon heat indices will top out around 95-102F on Tuesday, 100-105F on Wednesday/Thursday, and 93-100F on Fri. Lows will remain near seasonal averages through the period. && .AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 120 PM EDT Sunday... VFR conditions prevail at the terminals early this aftn with the exception of lingering MVFR CIGs at RIC (which should lift to VFR by 20z). Mainly dry conditions are expected through this evening at RIC, with isolated-scattered tstms possible near the coast (highest chance at ORF/ECG where the VCTS mention has been maintained). Brief IFR-LIFR VSBYs and wind gusts to ~30 kt will likely accompany the stronger storms this afternoon/evening. Showers/tstms diminish in coverage after 23-00z, with VFR conditions then expected through 06z. Another round of MVFR to IFR stratus is expected between 08-14z Sunday morning (mainly at RIC/PHF, with lesser chances at SBY/ORF/ECG). In addition, scattered showers may move into RIC by 07-10z as a shortwave approaches from the west. CIGs should lift to VFR by midday Sun, but additional showers/tstms are then expected during the aftn- early evening (best chance near the coast where PoPs are ~60%). Outlook: Dry/mainly VFR Sun night. Isolated showers and storms are possible at ORF/ECG Monday aftn as drier air filters into the region. Otherwise, prevailing conditions are expected to remain VFR early next week. && .MARINE... As of 245 PM EDT Saturday... High pressure continues to be centered offshore of the Southeast U.S. coast, and a weak trough is located over the interior portions of the Mid-Atlantic. This is resulting in the continuation of a southerly flow. Wind speeds are around 10 kt with gusts 15-20 kt. Wind gusts are expected to remain below Small Craft Advisory criteria, however there may be a brief period overnight with gusts 20-25 kt, especially over the eastern portions of the Chesapeake Bay. SCA was not issue because it will be marginal with only an hour or two period for the highest wind gusts, and confidence is low. Similar conditions are expected tomorrow before a very weak cold front moves off the coast Sunday night. Showers and thunderstorms chance increase this afternoon and continue overnight through Sunday evening. The strongest storms may produce strong wind gusts and frequent lightning. Seas have increased slightly this weekend, with seas 3-4 ft (highest north of the mouth of the Chesapeake Bay). Waves in the bay will be 1-3 ft. Very weak flow return on following the weak cold front tomorrow night. NNE winds veer to the E-SE ~5-10 kt with localized sea breezes developing during the afternoon Monday, with that same pattern continuing through midweek. Waves 1-2 ft and seas 2-4 ft. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...None. && SYNOPSIS...RHR NEAR TERM...ERI SHORT TERM...ERI LONG TERM...ERI/RHR AVIATION...ERI MARINE...CP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Wakefield VA 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 MDZ021>025-NCZ012>017-030>032-102-VAZ048-060>062-064>069-075>090-092- 093-095>100-509>525-161915- Dorchester-Wicomico-Somerset-Inland Worcester-Maryland Beaches- Northampton-Hertford-Gates-Pasquotank-Camden-Western Currituck- Bertie-Chowan-Perquimans-Eastern Currituck-Fluvanna-Prince Edward- Cumberland-Goochland-Caroline-Mecklenburg-Lunenburg-Nottoway-Amelia- Powhatan-Westmoreland-Richmond-Northumberland-Lancaster-Brunswick- Dinwiddie-Prince George-Charles City-New Kent-Gloucester-Middlesex- Mathews-Greensville-Sussex-Surry-James City-Southampton- Isle of Wight-Norfolk/Portsmouth-Suffolk-Chesapeake-Virginia Beach- Accomack-Western Louisa-Eastern Louisa-Western Hanover- Eastern Hanover-Western Chesterfield- Eastern Chesterfield (Including Col. Heights)- Western Henrico (Including the City of Richmond)-Eastern Henrico- Western King William-Eastern King William-Western King and Queen- Eastern King and Queen-Western Essex-Eastern Essex-York-Newport News- Hampton/Poquoson- 303 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for southeast Maryland, northeast North Carolina, central Virginia, east central Virginia, eastern Virginia, north central Virginia, south central Virginia and southeast Virginia. .DAY ONE...Tonight. The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday will bring the chance for locally strong wind gusts and heavy rainfall. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
NCZ014-VAZ092-093-096-152015-
Gates NC-Isle of Wight VA-Southampton VA-Suffolk VA-
328 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southwestern Isle of
Wight, and southeastern Southampton Counties, the City of Franklin
and the central City of Suffolk through 415 PM EDT...
At 328 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Franklin, moving north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Franklin around 340 PM EDT.
Holland, Carrsville and Hunterdale around 345 PM EDT.
Sedley around 355 PM EDT.
Windsor around 405 PM EDT.
Other locations impacted by this storm include Vicksville, Berlin,
Lummis, Cleopus, Dort, Indika, Somerton, Collosse, Lees Mill and
Riverdale.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3653 7692 3654 7692 3655 7699 3687 7703
3685 7662 3652 7676
TIME...MOT...LOC 1928Z 188DEG 21KT 3660 7688
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
EISpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
MDZ023-024-VAZ099-152015-
Somerset MD-Inland Worcester MD-Accomack VA-
334 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern
Somerset, southwestern Worcester and northern Accomack Counties
through 415 PM EDT...
At 334 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Marion Station, or 7 miles southwest of Pocomoke City. This storm was
nearly stationary.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Locations impacted include...
Pocomoke City, West Pocomoke, Rehobeth, Shelltown and Beaver Dam.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3793 7555 3794 7563 3798 7574 3806 7567
3807 7566 3808 7562 3808 7556 3803 7552
TIME...MOT...LOC 1934Z 213DEG 3KT 3799 7565
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
ButnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
402 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
VAZ088-089-092-093-096-152045-
Isle of Wight VA-Surry VA-Sussex VA-Southampton VA-Suffolk VA-
402 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Isle of Wight,
northeastern Southampton, northeastern Sussex and southeastern Surry
Counties and the northeastern City of Suffolk through 445 PM EDT...
At 402 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Ivor to Isle Of Wight to near Crittenden.
Movement was north at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Newport News, Smithfield, Windsor, Waverly, Wakefield, Suffolk, Isle
Of Wight, Ivor, Dendron, Rescue, Sedley, Crittenden, Elberon, Zuni,
Driver, Vicksville, Rushmere, Booth Fork, Pons and Carrollton.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3704 7714 3713 7663 3708 7657 3708 7655
3709 7655 3709 7654 3708 7653 3707 7653
3705 7651 3686 7642 3683 7645 3675 7706
TIME...MOT...LOC 2002Z 180DEG 21KT 3687 7693 3689 7670 3691 7653
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
EIPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
411 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0330 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 NW South Norfolk 36.81N 76.29W
07/15/2023 M55 MPH City of Portsmouth VA Mesonet
Mesonet station XSNJ South Norfolk Jordan
Bridge.
0345 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 4 SSW Raleigh Terrace 36.95N 76.39W
07/15/2023 M40 MPH ANZ638 VA Mesonet
Mesonet station XMGL Middle Ground
Lighthouse.
0356 PM Tstm Wnd Gst 2 NW Ghent 36.89N 76.32W
07/15/2023 M39 MPH City of Norfolk VA Mesonet
Mesonet station XODU Lafayette River.
&&
EISpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
651 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
VAZ048-509-152330-
Fluvanna VA-Western Louisa VA-
651 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern Louisa
and north central Fluvanna Counties through 730 PM EDT...
At 651 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Troy, or 8 miles east of Charlottesville, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Locations impacted include...
Lake Monticello, Boswells Tavern, Gordonsville, Nahor, Waldrop, Green
Springs, Vawter Corner and Union Mills.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
&&
LAT...LON 3806 7826 3813 7821 3813 7818 3814 7815
3814 7812 3815 7811 3815 7809 3813 7805
3814 7802 3813 7800 3812 7800 3790 7834
3793 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 2251Z 219DEG 11KT 3803 7833
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
ButnerSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
744 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
VAZ048-509-510-160030-
Fluvanna VA-Western Louisa VA-Eastern Louisa VA-
744 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northern Louisa and
northeastern Fluvanna Counties through 830 PM EDT...
At 744 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Ferncliff, or 8 miles northeast of Palmyra, moving northeast at 15
mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rain, and frequent
lightning.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Reduced visibility and minor flooding
possible. Frequent cloud to ground lightning strikes.
Locations impacted include...
Louisa, Mineral, Ferncliff, Bybee, Pendleton, Louisa Airport, Byrd
Mill, Trevilians, Zion Crossroads and Vawter Corner.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Be prepared for rapid changes in weather and road conditions. Do not
drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3814 7802 3812 7798 3812 7797 3811 7793
3798 7782 3788 7821 3796 7824
TIME...MOT...LOC 2344Z 238DEG 15KT 3795 7815
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...45 MPH
ButnerThe Sterling radar (KLWX), 127 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 23:47 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
There were several reports of flooding near Interstate 64 and Route 15.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1128570.