A disturbance moving through an unstable air mass produced severe thunderstorms over portions of Upper Michigan late evening on the 15th.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MQT wrote it up.
A disturbance moving through an unstable air mass produced severe thunderstorms over portions of Upper Michigan late evening on the 15th.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Marquette, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 15, 6:40 PM CST, 37 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Marquette MI 840 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 .SHORT TERM...(The rest of this afternoon through tonight) Issued at 146 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023 Satellite imagery shows a large plume of wildfire smoke from Alberta and British Columbia currently over us early this afternoon as yet another low-amplitude shortwave makes its way towards us from northern Ontario. Given that this shortwave is looking to be moisture-starved due to another shortwave over the Lower Midwest and Mid-Mississippi today, expect most of the precip to be fairly light across the area this afternoon and evening, with the convection over us being mostly fueled by the diurnal instability that is currently being created. However, with the thick smoke cover over us, the instability may be a little lower than previously thought. That being said, looking at the SPC Mesoanalysis page, lower level lapse rates look to already be near 8 to 8.5 C/km, remaining that way until the evening hours. Meanwhile, 0-3 km bulk shear of around 25 kts is moving in from the west over us, and given the marginal forcing from the low-amplitude shortwave over us, we may see a strong storm or two later this afternoon into early this evening; we could see some sub-severe hail (less than a quarter), gusty winds, and heavy downpours with a couple of these storms. As we move into the overnight hours, expect most of the convection to die out, save for maybe a few isolated showers and thunderstorms. One more thing I'd like to remind everyone on is the smoke that we are currently seeing. Due to the smoke concentrations being so high over the UP right now, the Michigan Department of Environment, Great Lakes, and Energy has issued an Air Quality Alert for all of the UP today except the far east. Therefore, if you are sensitive to smoke particulates, try to limit your time outside today, as the air is unhealthy for you. The smoke plume looks to spread further southeastwards tonight, bringing the rest of the UP under an Air Quality Alert after midnight tonight. .LONG TERM...(Sunday through Saturday) Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023 A longwave trough/closed low near the western Hudson Bay shoreline finally shifts east early next week. Northwest flow west of this trough axis allows a clipper-like system to move into the region by mid-week. Northwest flow aloft seems likely to continue through next weekend too. Overall, the extended period is expected to be a continuation of the generally cool/damp pattern we've experienced for at least the past week. The best chance for thunderstorms is Sunday afternoon/evening, but another round of more widespread rain chances appears to arrive later Wednesday into Thursday. Monday should be the coolest days with high temps struggling to warm above 70 near Lake Superior and across higher elevations. Starting with Sunday morning, weather should be quiet due to shortwave ridging ahead of an energetic shortwave/vorticity maxima positioned near International Falls, MN at 12z. Various model are in good agreement that this shortwave pivots from a positive to more neutral tilt as it tracks east-southeast across the UP during the late afternoon and evening hours. This favorable diurnal timing and impressive cyclonic vorticity advection indicates a widespread round of showers and thunderstorms is likely. HREF means indicate several hundred J/kg of MUCAPE and 30-40 knots of bulk shear suggesting a CAPE-limited environment. However, ensemble maximum of SBCAPE indicates patches of SBCAPE values >1500 J/kg and if those higher CAPE values materialize then locally strong/severe storms will be possible. Hodographs appear to be fairly straight suggesting a more linear/multi-cell storm mode with hail/wind threats if organized updrafts materialize. Conceptually, this possibility seems more likely across the east-central UP where there should be a few extra hours of destabilization ahead of the shortwave. There's a mixture of signals for a heavy rain threat with generally seasonable Pwat values (around 1.00-1.25"), fairly fast storm motions around 30 knots, warm cloud depths less than 10kft, and shear vectors oriented ~45 degrees east of the synoptic frontal boundary. Even though those factors aren't favorable for heavy rain the 12z NAM guidance develops multiple rounds of storms along the Lake Superior lake-breeze, which is oriented nearly parallel to shear vectors and may sufficiently compensate for the other factors. While confidence was too low to recommend changes to the WPC QPF forecast, a heavy rainfall threat is plausible across portions of Alger, Luce, and Schoolcraft counties where 12z HREF PMM guidance shows a swath of around 0.75-1.25" of rain. Pwats decrease below 1 inch and flow becomes more northwesterly for Monday suggesting reduced intensity/coverage of diurnal precip chances, despite continued cyclonic vorticity advection aloft. EPS QPF means/probabilities suggest rain chances will be focused along a NW to SE oriented Lake Superior lake-breeze boundary within a triangle between Sawyer, Escanaba, and Manistique with somewhat lower chances along most of the Lake MI shoreline where the Lake MI lake breeze pushes back against NW flow. Model soundings suggest shallow instability that may prevent thunder chances away from the Lake MI shoreline. Was not confident enough to adjust NBM thunder chances. The lack of instability also suggests activity should diminish quickly with diurnal heating. Shortwave ridging moves through the area Monday night through Tuesday night implying clearing skies and calm winds that could result in fairly widespread fog potential. The next weather maker approaches from the northwest on Wednesday and global models appear to be in good agreement that it will be another energetic disturbance. While exact timing/track details are characteristically unclear, a robust warm air advection regime should develop on Wednesday then the disturbance should move through or make it's closest approach Wednesday night or Thursday. If sufficient instability and forcing arrives Wednesday afternoon or evening then the veering WAA wind profile suggests a severe threat could develop. The wave appears strong enough to support a nocturnal severe threat at the nose of the LLJ as it traverses the UP. A drier air mass should be filtering into the area by Thursday night, but subtle northwest flow disturbances could keep diurnal precipitation chances going into next weekend. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Sunday evening) Issued at 839 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023 VFR conditions should prevail thru tonight at IWD/CMX/SAW. However, some rainfall occurred at SAW during the late aftn, and that could aid the development of some fog overnight. Will be something to monitor. There is also still a low potential that a shra could affect SAW late this evening. On Sun, a disturbance will swing se into the area late in the day, triggering nmrs shra and some tsra. Quite possible MVFR/maybe IFR will occur with some of the pcpn. && .MARINE...(For the 4 PM Lake Superior forecast issuance) Issued at 243 PM EDT SAT JUL 15 2023 Winds will near to below 20 kt throughout the forecast period. Marine hazards will mainly come in the form of thunderstorms possible over portions of southeast Lake Superior this afternoon and evening and across the rest of the lake during the day Sunday. While severe thunderstorms are not expected, a few stronger storms capable of gusty winds and small hail are possible. Patchy marine fog is possible over portions of the lake that receive rainfall with the most likely time frame being Sunday evening/night across the eastern lake. Hazy skies and some wildfire smoke is currently across central and eastern portions of the lake, but should shift east of the lake on Sunday. && .MQT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Upper Michigan... None. Lake Superior... None. Lake Michigan... None. && SHORT TERM...TAP LONG TERM...EK AVIATION...Rolfson MARINE...EK
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Marquette MI 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 MIZ001>007-009>014-084-085-161915- Keweenaw-Ontonagon-Northern Houghton-Baraga-Marquette-Alger-Luce- Gogebic-Iron-Dickinson-Menominee-Delta-Southern Schoolcraft- Southern Houghton-Northern Schoolcraft- 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 /208 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Upper Michigan and western Upper Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Scattered thunderstorms are possible through tonight, mainly in the central and east early. Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality. See the latest Air Quality Alert for more details. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality. See the latest Air Quality Alert for more details. There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday through Monday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are encouraged to report any observed hail or wind damage from thunderstorms to the National Weather Service in Marquette. The public may also submit reports to the National Weather Service via phone, on our website, or through Facebook or Twitter. LSZ162-240>251-263>267-161915- Lake Superior west of a line from Saxon Harbor WI to Grand Portage MN beyond 5NM-Saxon Harbor WI to Black River MI- Black River to Ontonagon MI- Ontonagon to Upper Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Upper Entrance of Portage Canal to Eagle River MI- Eagle River to Manitou Island MI- Manitou Island to Point Isabelle MI- Point Isabelle to Lower Entrance of Portage Canal MI- Lower Entrance of Portage Canal To Huron Islands MI Including Keweenaw and Huron Bays-Huron Islands to Marquette MI- Marquette to Munising MI-Munising to Grand Marais MI- Grand Marais to Whitefish Point MI- Lake Superior from Saxon Harbor WI to Upper Entrance to Portage Canal MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border including Isle Royale National Park- Lake Superior from Upper Entrance to Portage Canal to Manitou Island MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian Border- Lake Superior West of Line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior East of a line from Manitou Island to Marquette MI and West of a line from Grand Marais MI to the US/Canadian Border Beyond 5NM from shore- Lake Superior from Grand Marais MI to Whitefish Point MI 5NM off shore to the US/Canadian border- 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 /208 PM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023/ This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Central Lake Superior...Eastern Lake Superior and Western Lake Superior. .DAY ONE...Tonight A few thunderstorms are possible near the lakeshores early tonight. Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday There is a chance for thunderstorms Sunday. Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality Sunday, mainly in the east. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. LMZ221-248-250-161915- Green Bay North of line from Cedar River MI to Rock Island Passage-Seul Choix Point to Point Detour MI- 5NM East of a line from Fairport MI to Rock Island Passage- 308 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Northern Lake Michigan. .DAY ONE...Tonight Thunderstorms are possible tonight. Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday Thunderstorms are possible Sunday through Monday. Smoke and haze from upstream wildfires may lead to poor air quality Sunday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... The need for weather spotter reports is not anticipated at this time. TAP
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Marquette MI
401 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0142 AM Tstm Wnd Gst 1 ESE Marquette 46.55N 87.38W
07/15/2023 M43 MPH Marquette MI Mesonet
Corrects previous non-tstm wnd gst report
from 1 ESE Marquette. NOS Water Level
Observation Network station MCGM4 Marquette
C.G., MI.
&&
DJSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
723 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
MIZ007-152345-
Luce MI-
723 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southern Luce County
through 745 PM EDT...
At 723 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 10 miles south of Muskallonge State Park to
Manistique Lake. Movement was east at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and penny size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Newberry, McMillan, Manistique Lake, Helmer, Four Mile Corner,
Dollarville and Pine Stump Junction.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 4624 8551 4625 8585 4658 8565 4658 8524
4655 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2323Z 269DEG 17KT 4653 8560 4625 8584
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RolfsonSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Marquette MI
745 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
MIZ007-160015-
Luce MI-
745 PM EDT Sat Jul 15 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southeastern Luce
County through 815 PM EDT...
At 745 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles southwest of Lower Tahquamenon Falls
State Park to Manistique Lake. Movement was east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Newberry, Dollarville, Helmer and Soo Junction.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Persons in campgrounds should consider seeking sturdy shelter until
these storms pass.
&&
LAT...LON 4625 8583 4653 8529 4653 8524 4624 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2345Z 270DEG 20KT 4649 8529 4624 8577
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
RolfsonThe Marquette radar (KMQT), 98 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 01:17 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
There was a public report of over 20 trees blown down throughout Caspian.
There were several trees reported blown down along Highway M-95 southeast of Randville.
A convenience store worker reported trees down near North Dickinson County School. Hail also occurred but size was unknown. Time of the report was estimated by radar.
Convenience store worker reported trees down along Ride Outs Road. Hail also occurred but size was unknown. Time of the report was estimated from radar.
Roads in Foster City were littered with shredded leaves due to hail. The spotter in the vehicle had to pull over and stop due to torrential rainfall. Hail size was estimated as the spotter did not get out of the vehicle to measure it. Torrential rain and hail began around 940 pm CDT and lasted 10 to 15 minutes.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Michigan in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Michigan, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1106152, 1106153, 1106154, 1106155, 1106156.