NWS Wakefield, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 31, 6:31 AM EST, 39 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 31, 6:31 AM EST, 39 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
731 AM EDT Thu Aug 31 2023
.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical system Idalia, currently just east of Myrtle Beach
South Carolina early this morning, is forecast to track northeast
then east and out to sea today through tonight. High pressure
will build down into and over the area for tonight and into the
upcoming weekend.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Early this morning, Tropical system Idalia was located just east
of Myrtle Beach SC. The storm is fcst to track NE then E and out
to sea today through tonight. Latest radar showed the rain
shield well north of the system has pushed nwrd into extrm
srn/SE VA, with some heavier bands of rain lifting into our NE
NC counties. Temps were ranging from the upper 60s to mid 70s.
Due to the system fcst to track rather quickly NE then E today
into tonight, the nrn extent of the rain will not lift much
farther N into our CWA then from a line extending from
Northampton county VA SW to near Wakefield, then to South Hill.
Thus, the heavier rainfall will remain across extrm SE VA and NE
NC through the event, where one to four inches will be possible,
esply over NE NC.
NNE winds will increase and will be strong during this morning
into this evening, esply across ern and SE portions of the CWA.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Currituck County
for wind gusts up to 50 mph. A Wind Advisory is in effect for
Virginia Beach, Norfolk, Hampton, and Northampton County, VA for
wind gust around 40 mph. Peak winds will likely be from later
this morning into early this evening. Elsewhere, even along the
I-95 corridor and Maryland Eastern Shore, NNE winds will be
gusting to around 25-35 mph this morning.
Rain will exit the region and off the coast late this aftn into
early this evening, with NE or N winds gradually diminishing
this evening into early Fri morning, as high pressure builds
south behind the storm. Clearing or clear sky tonight with lows
ranging from the mid 50s WNW, to the upper 50s to mid 60s ESE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 400 AM EDT Thursday...
Much quieter conditions are expected for Fri through Sat night,
as high pressure builds down into and over the region. NE winds
will remain a bit breezy along the coast (gusts 25-30 mph) Fri
morning, but will be diminishing during the rest of Fri.
Comfortable temps and humidity levels expected both days, with
lots of sunshine. Highs will be in the mid 70s to lower 80s Fri,
and in the upper 70s to mid 80s Sat. Lows will range from the
lower to mid 50s inland/Piedmont, to the upper 50s to mid 60s
near the water/along the coast Fri night, and range from the mid
to upper 50s inland/Piedmont inland/Piedmont, to 60-65 near the
water/along the coast Sat night.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 410 AM EDT Thursday...
Dry weather with very warm/hot temps and at least moderate humidity
levels are expected for Sun into Wed. A ridge aloft is expected
to build over much of the eastern U.S. through the middle of
next week. Highs will be in the mid 80s to near 90 Sun, in the
lower to mid 90s Mon and Tue, and in the upper 80s to mid 90s
Wed.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 240 AM EDT Thursday...
Tropical system Idalia, currently just east of Myrtle Beach
South Carolina early this morning, is forecast to track northeast
then east and out to sea today through tonight. VFR conditions
prevail at all the TAF sites except ECG where MVFR CIGs were
occurring with -RA. Rain and lowering CIGs will continue to
move north into far srn/SE VA and NE NC this morning into
midday, before gradual improving conditions from NW to SE this
aftn into this evening. Some heavy rain and reduced VSBYS are
likely at ECG and possibly at KORF. MVFR conditions are
expected at these sites (possibly PHF also) with possibly IFR
conditions at ECG (esply CIG). NNE winds will increase and will
be strong during this morning into this evening. Strongest winds
will be at ECG, ORF and PHF at 15-25 kt with gusts at ~30-35
kt. NNE winds will be less for SBY and RIC.
Pcpn will end or move off the coast this evening with mainly VFR
conditions prevailing at all TAF sites tonight into Fri, as high
pressure starts to build in from the N. High pressure will then
dominate our wx through the weekend.
&&
.MARINE...
As of 325 AM EDT Thursday...
A cold front meanders along the S waters early this morning and is
expected to continue to drop S. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Idalia
continues to move ENE off of the SC/NC coast before turning E later
this morning and moving out to sea. Meanwhile, high pressure over
the Great Lakes gradually builds into New England today into
tonight, remaining centered over the region Fri. The pressure
gradient between Idalia and the strong high pressure to the NW will
result in a prolonged period of elevated winds through Fri. Winds
continue to increase this morning and are expected to peak at 30-35
kt sustained with gusts 45-50 kt over the NC coastal waters and
Currituck Sound, 30-35 kt with gusts ~40-45 kt from Cape Charles
Light to the VA/NC border, and 25-30 kt with gusts ~35-40 kt for the
lower bay, Lower James, and coastal waters N of Cape Charles Light
to Chincoteague. N of Chincoteague, expect wind gusts to peak at 30-
35 kt (just below Gale criteria). A Tropical Storm Warning remains
in effect for the NC coastal waters and the Currituck Sound. Gale
Warnings remain in effect for the coastal waters from the VA/NC
border N to Chincoteague and for the lower bay and Lower James.
Small craft advisories remain in effect for the remainder of the
rivers and the middle and upper bay. A few gusts to 35 kt will be
possible in the middle bay, but confidence in frequent gusts for 3+
hours is too low to upgrade to Gale Warnings. Gale Warning will need
to be replaced with SCAs tonight through Fri as winds ramp down.
However, SCAs due to elevated seas will likely continue into Sat
night. Winds should remain below SCA criteria from Sun-early next week as
high pressure remains in control at the sfc and aloft (and as a
result the pressure gradient over the waters will be weak)
Seas build to 8-12 ft across the S coastal waters and 6-9 ft across
the N coastal waters by late this afternoon and continue through
Fri. The mouth of the bay could see 5-7 ft waves with 3-6 ft waves
for the rest of the bay. Conditions will gradually improve through
the weekend, however, SCAs for elevated seas may be needed through
Sat night (Sun AM across the NE NC coastal waters). Swell from
Idalia will keep seas ~4 ft on Sun and 3-4 ft on Mon (with 1-2
ft waves).
There will be a high rip current risk for all area beaches through
at least Sat due to increase seas and long period swell from
Hurricane Idalia. Elevated rip current risk is likely to continue
into early next week given the combo of onshore flow, arriving
swell, and increased winds late in the week. In addition, High Surf
Advisories remain in effect for the atlantic shoreline for
Northampton, VA (6-8 ft waves) from 4 PM this afternoon through 4 AM
tonight, for VA Beach through 4PM Fri (7-10 ft waves), and for
coastal Currituck (8-11 ft waves) through Fri. Accomack was removed
from the High Surf Advisory due to nearshore breaking waves of 5-7
ft (mainly 5-6 ft) instead of 6-8 ft.
&&
.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
As of 730 AM EDT Thursday...
Water levels are rising in the western portion of the Albemarle
Sound and falling to the east at this time. The water level has
jumped quickly to near 2.5ft at Edenton. Confidence in reaching
moderate stage (3.0ft) is not high, but there appears to be
enough impacts in the 2.5-3.0ft range to warrant a coastal
flood warning. Additionally, coastal flood advisories have been
issued for Perquimans and Bertie. The warning/advisories are in
effect through 2 PM.
Water level departures of 1 to 2 ft due to strong NE winds from
Tropical Storm Idalia are expected to cause widespread moderate
flooding from the Middle Peninsula south to Currituck, NC and
including Northampton, VA over the high tide cycles today and
tomorrow. Have therefore replaced Coastal Flood Watches with Coastal
Flood Warnings for these areas. Minor coastal flooding is expected
further N into portions of the Northern Neck and across the Atlantic
side of the Eastern Shore from Accomack to the MD beaches where
water level departures are expected to be closer to 1 foot given
lighter winds. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for these
areas. The transition zone is around the York River where Coastal A
Flood Advisory remains in effect for the upcoming high tide here
with larger anomalies and higher water levels expected in the
following high tide this evening when Coastal Flood Advisories are
replaced by Coastal Flood Warnings. For most locations, the highest
tide will occur during this evening/tonight's high tide cycle but
around the Hampton Roads area, given the arrival of the strongest
winds this morning, this morning's high tide could be just as high.
Tidal levels subside by Sat. Additionally, Dorchester County may
reach minor flood stage at Bishops Head with each high tide cycle
from tonight through Sat afternoon.
&&
.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Friday for MDZ024-025.
NC...Tropical Storm Warning for NCZ017-102.
Flood Watch through this evening for NCZ012>017-030>032-102.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for
NCZ030-032.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for NCZ031.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
High Surf Advisory until 7 PM EDT Friday for NCZ102.
VA...Coastal Flood Advisory from 6 PM this evening to 2 AM EDT
Friday for VAZ099.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 PM EDT Friday for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ078-085-
086.
Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for VAZ084-
523.
Coastal Flood Warning from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT
Friday for VAZ084-523.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ089-090-
093-095>097-524-525.
Wind Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for VAZ095-100-525.
Wind Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for VAZ098.
High Surf Advisory until 4 PM EDT Friday for VAZ098.
Coastal Flood Warning until 2 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ100.
High Surf Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 AM EDT Friday
for VAZ100.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Friday for ANZ630.
Gale Warning until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ631.
Gale Warning until 2 AM EDT Friday for ANZ632-638-652.
Tropical Storm Warning for ANZ633-658.
Gale Warning until 5 AM EDT Friday for ANZ634.
Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ635>637.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EDT Saturday for ANZ650.
Gale Warning until 8 AM EDT Friday for ANZ654-656.
&&
SYNOPSIS...TMG
NEAR TERM...TMG
SHORT TERM...CP/TMG
LONG TERM...CP/TMG
AVIATION...TMG
MARINE...ERI/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ