High pressure was established over New England, which extended southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic in a wedging pattern, with east windflow observed across Virginia and northern North Carolina. A cold front stretched from western Pennsylvania through eastern Tennessee, making slow eastward progress.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RNK wrote it up.
High pressure was established over New England, which extended southward across the lower Mid-Atlantic in a wedging pattern, with east windflow observed across Virginia and northern North Carolina. A cold front stretched from western Pennsylvania through eastern Tennessee, making slow eastward progress. The easterly windflow was tapping a pool of deep moisture from eastern North Carolina and Virginia, where precipitable water values ranged between 1.7 and 1.8 inches, while afternoon surface-based CAPE values ranged between 1,500 and 2,000 J/Kg across Smyth County. With weak winds aloft, storms across western Virginia were slow-moving. The combination of deep instability driven strong afternoon heating, high atmospheric moisture and slow storm motion resulted in a strong thunderstorm that produced 3 to 4 inches of rainfall over the town of Saltville during a roughly 60-minute period, with rainfall rates of 4 inches per hour at times.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Blacksburg, VA wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Aug 28, 2:46 PM EST, 2 hours 14 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 346 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A stalled frontal boundary over the area will be the focus for rounds of showers and thunderstorms through Tuesday. A tropical system entering the eastern Gulf of Mexico is expected to track south of our region Wednesday and Thursday. A cold front dropping south from the Great Lakes is expected to bring cooler temperatures and drier conditions by the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... As of 215 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Locally heavy rainfall this afternoon and tonight, especially east of the Blue Ridge. Antecedent conditions will make flooding occurrences easier. 2. Another round of rain and potential for localized flooding tomorrow afternoon. Greatest chances and coverage for showers will be from the Blue Ridge Foothills and west. Plenty of rain has occurred across the area today, with most of the heavier showers now east of the area, and some light showers lingering in the Piedmont and VA Highlands and Greenbrier Valley. Some showers with embedded thunderstorms have developed over the Mountain Empire and into far southeast West Virginia. The coverage of showers is expected to increase through the remainder of the afternoon and continue in the late evening, especially east of the Blue Ridge, as the stalled front sits to the southeast of the area. Most of the greater instability, CAPEs over 2000 J/kg, are closer to the front itself, so thinking less potential for severe thunderstorms, although some scattered storms cannot be ruled out. After about midnight, precipitation coverage will be much less, and most of the area will see a welcome break in the rain. However, with plenty of moisture in the area, indicated by PWATs between 1.5 to 2.0 inches still, expecting abundant cloud cover to remain through tonight and most of tomorrow. A weak trough will develop and sit just to the west of the Blue Ridge through tomorrow. This will trigger another round of showers and possible thunderstorms by mid afternoon, likely beginning over far southwest Virginia and northwest North Carolina, before expanding northward, to the rest of the western slopes of the mountains. Again, thinking that the risk of severe weather will be limited, and localized flooding due to excessive rainfall is the main concern. Since northwest North Carolina has received lots of rain today and yesterday and will get more tomorrow, that area has been highlighted within a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall. Temperatures will be below seasonal normals areawide, as cloud cover and rain limits any daytime heating, highs mainly in the 70s today and tomorrow. With the cloud cover overnight preventing much radiational cooling, lows will be in the 60s. Forecast confidence is above average. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 330 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Rain for the Carolinas 2. Temperatures trending cooler 3. Tropical Storm Idalia forecast to stay south of area Focus for mid week will be the the track of Idalia and its potential impact to the southeast states. Attm the official track is for it to remain south of our region with heaviest rains from the Carolinas southward into Florida. We are expected to remain on the northern periphery of the system, so still expecting abundant cloud cover for mid week and at least some chance for rain across southside VA and into the piedmont of North Carolina. In addition, during the day Wednesday a cold front will cross the area from the northwest, bringing a change in airmass. Front appears to have a fall flavor, with dewpoints in the lower 40s...so by Thursday we should trade the muggy airmass with something drier and cooler. Not confident we will lose all the cloud cover from Idalia by Thursday, so it could turn out to be a cloudy cool, breezy day with temperatures in the 60s/70s. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 340 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: 1. Dry Weekend 2. Trending warmer next week Dry high pressure is expected to build across the region for the weekend, temperatures initially cool, but then trending warmer with temperatures returning to normal by Monday. && .AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 200 PM EDT Monday... Conditions continue to fluctuate between MVFR and IFR, with some pockets of VFR, and this trend will continue through the TAF valid period. Showers with some thunderstorms are currently moving across the Grayson Highlands and northwest North Carolina, as well as the Virginia Piedmont. Expecting showers to become more widespread once again this afternoon and through most of the evening/night. Coverage of showers and storms will decrease after midnight, and then another round of showers will move into the area by mid afternoon, as early as noon in northwest North Carolina. The greatest coverage will be mainly west of the Blue Ridge Foothills. Plenty of ambient moisture and widespread rainfall will keep ceilings low and visibilities reduced. Locally heavy rain showers could reduce visibilities even further intermittently. Patchy fog could develop in the early morning over areas that have seen plenty of rainfall and in the river and mountain valleys. Winds will be mainly easterly and southeasterly and 5 to 10 knots through the TAF period. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible on Wednesday with best chances in the south. For Thursday and Friday, will need to watch what happens with the track of Tropical Storm Idalia for any potential impacts to the area. At this time, it will remain to the south and east, and surface high pressure will provide quieter weather and improved flying conditions. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && SYNOPSIS...PM NEAR TERM...AS SHORT TERM...PM LONG TERM...PM AVIATION...AS
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 230 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 VAZ007-010-011-013-014-018>020-022>024-034-035-WVZ042>044-507-508- 291830- Tazewell-Bland-Giles-Pulaski-Montgomery-Craig-Alleghany VA-Bath- Roanoke-Botetourt-Rockbridge-Bedford-Amherst-Mercer-Summers-Monroe- Eastern Greenbrier-Western Greenbrier- 230 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia, west central Virginia and southeast West Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Localized flooding is possible this afternoon and into tonight due to scattered showers and thunderstorms with high rain rates. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A prolonged period of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday may result in localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. NCZ001>006-018>020-VAZ009-012-015>017-032-033-043>047-058-059-291830- Ashe-Alleghany NC-Surry-Stokes-Rockingham-Caswell-Watauga-Wilkes- Yadkin-Smyth-Wythe-Grayson-Carroll-Floyd-Patrick-Franklin-Henry- Pittsylvania-Campbell-Appomattox-Buckingham-Halifax-Charlotte- 230 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for north central North Carolina, northwest North Carolina, central Virginia, south central Virginia, southwest Virginia and west central Virginia. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Flash flooding is possible today and into tonight due to repeated showers and thunderstorms. Recent heavy rainfall in these areas amplifies the threat for flash flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday. A prolonged period of scattered showers and thunderstorms Tuesday may result in localized flooding. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1228 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0800 AM Rain 2 ESE Pipers Gap 36.63N 80.80W
08/28/2023 M3.75 inch Carroll VA Mesonet
&&
16Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
116 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 AM Flash Flood 2 E Woolwine 36.78N 80.25W
08/28/2023 Patrick VA Mesonet
The Smith River near Woolwine (SMWV2)
crested at 11.04 feet above moderate flood
stage of 11 feet. This is the highest crest
since Sept 2018, and nearly a 10-year flood
event. The river rose nearly 9 feet within 6
hours of the crest.
&&
16Preliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
218 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0500 AM Flash Flood 1 NW Ararat 36.61N 80.52W
08/28/2023 Patrick VA Dept of Highways
Spring Branch Road was destroyed and is
impassible where it crosses the Ararat
River. This was caused by rapid and intense
flooding from heavy rainfall.
&&
16Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service BLACKSBURG VA
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
NCZ002-003-VAZ015-282000-
Surry NC-Alleghany NC-Grayson VA-
302 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
...THUNDERSTORMs WITH HEAVY RAINFALL WILL IMPACT
ALLEGHANY...NORTHWESTERN SURRY COUNTIES IN NORTHWESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA AND SOUTHEASTERN GRAYSON COUNTIES IN SOUTHWESTERN VIRGINIA
THROUGH 400 PM EDT...
At 300 PM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking thunderstormS WITH HEAVY
RAINFALL NEAR Stratford, or near Laurel Springs, moving east at 25
mph.
HAZARD...Heavy Rainfall on saturated ground. Flooding possible.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Flooding of poor drainage, low-lying, and normally flood
prone areas. Elevated levels on area creeks and streams.
Locations impacted include...
Galax...
Sparta...
Independence...
Ennice...
Baywood...
Stratford...
and Scottville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Locally heavy rain will quickly reduce visibility and result in
ponding of water on roadways, standing water in low lying areas, and
minor flooding of creeks, streams, and areas of poor drainage.
Drivers are urged to slow down and use extra caution to avoid
hydroplaning.
&&
LAT...LON 3641 8127 3645 8127 3648 8132 3657 8134
3667 8093 3665 8095 3664 8092 3663 8093
3663 8091 3665 8091 3641 8086 3640 8104
3641 8105 3642 8108 3643 8108 3642 8115
3643 8117 3640 8119 3639 8125
TIME...MOT...LOC 1900Z 259DEG 22KT 3650 8124
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
RABPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
540 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0445 PM Flash Flood 2 SE Baldwin 36.33N 81.51W
08/28/2023 Ashe NC 911 Call Center
Several inches of water flowing over Paul
Goodwin Road just of U.S. 221 in the Baldwin
area. Mud and rocks were also washed out
into the road. The road had to be closed in
both direction by NCDOT.
&&
RABPreliminary Local Storm Report
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
546 PM EDT Mon Aug 28 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0446 PM Flash Flood 2 NE Todd 36.32N 81.57W
08/28/2023 Ashe NC 911 Call Center
The Ashe County 911 Center reported that
water was flowing through the basement of a
private residence along Laurel Knob Road in
the Todd area.
&&
RABThe Roanoke radar (KFCX), 134 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 21:58 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Heavy rainfall resulted in localized flash flooding along Palmer Avenue in the community of Saltville. Water was reported to have entered a few businesses along the road. Property damage is the estimated cost of the damage and cleanup to the businesses.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Virginia in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Virginia, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1131566.