Damaging Wind and High Wind in Texas, September 9, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
610 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Sunday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Temperatures at 2 PM were a good 6 to 12 degrees lower than
yesterday at this time over most of the South Plains and Rolling
Plains. The front responsible for this welcome change was found
stalled just south of I-20 and will gradually retreat NW tonight
through Sunday as surface ridging exits to our east. Moist easterly
flow currently over the region is funneling into New Mexico where we
expect upslope storms to become more prevalent as the afternoon and
early evening wear on. Minimal capping over the plains of NM should
allow these storms to grow upscale into clusters or perhaps an MCS.
Generally weak W-NW steering flow around an upper high in swrn NM
should carry these storms to near the state line by sunset. The
question then becomes how well can this activity sustain itself
farther downstream across our area as SBCIN will increase markedly
by sunset. Models agree in a favorable Theta-E ridge sharpening W-E
this evening across the South Plains within a modest southeasterly
LLJ, so this seems sufficient to maintain 30-40 PoPs on the Caprock
through 06Z before activity dwindles as the LLJ veers and focuses
better isentropic ascent farther north into the Panhandle. Some of
this latter precip could easily wander into our eastern zones
through the morning.

The surface pattern is looking a bit muddled by Sunday given outflow
from nocturnal storms and lingering clouds and some precip off the
Caprock. Aloft, weak NW flow will improve modestly through the day
as ridging flattens and heights depress. Combined with a N-S
baroclinic zone from 850-700 mb and southerly low-level flow
boosting PWATs as high as 1.5" off the Caprock, the atmosphere
should become weakly capped during the afternoon for additional
storms. Lack of definitive forcing should keep precip in the
isolated to scattered realm, so NBM's PoPs were capped at 40 percent
for the afternoon. NBM's high temps do look a bit generous compared
to MOS, so this was dialed lower and more in sync with CONSSHORT.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 219 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Upper level ridging over the Desert SW will accelerate its
southwestward retreat late Sunday night through Monday in response
to deepening longwave troughing over southern Canada into the
Upper Midwest. Ongoing convection Sunday evening will shift
eastward during the early overnight hours, with a convectively
enhanced surface cold front progged to simultaneously shift
southward through western OK and the TX Panhandle. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue Sunday
night into early Monday along and ahead of this front, supported
by broadly diffluent jet-level flow and the favorably timed
passage of a few modest midlevel shortwaves. Monday will then mark
the beginning of a welcomed stretch of cooler temperatures as
stronger surface ridging builds over the central plains and pushes
the cold front southward into the Permian Basin by Monday
afternoon. Have once again favored the cooler end of guidance for
temperatures Monday given strong northeasterly surface flow and
ample cloud cover, and will also maintain broad PoPs through much
of the daytime hours Monday as weak midlevel isentropic lift
remains in place. Convective chances will then increase once again
Monday evening and persist into Tuesday morning as a more notable
upper jet streak pivots over the TX Panhandle above moist and
fairly deep upslope low level flow. While NBM PoPs were nudged
downward slightly to account for uncertainty in the positioning of
any focusing surface features, broad high-end likely to low
categorical PoPs do appear justified into early Tuesday given the
upper level support, magnitude of available moisture, and minimal
ensemble spread.

The cool and unsettled pattern will continue Tuesday through at
least the end of the work week as broad cyclonic flow aloft remains
in place over the central and eastern CONUS and the upper ridge
remains suppressed over northwestern Mexico. Impressive midlevel
moisture will persist with at least some component of upslope flow
set to continue through most of this week, with high temperatures
mainly in the 70s and lower 80s through Friday. Additional rounds of
showers and storms will also continue each day within the unsettled
northwesterly flow aloft, with best chances for additional
widespread precip currently favoring the Tuesday night into early
Wednesday timeframe in tandem with the passage of a more potent
upper shortwave. Ensembles remain in good agreement with rich
moisture in place through next weekend and will therefore continue
with broad chance PoPs through the end of the extended forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 610 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

Scattered TSTMs are ongoing across eastern New Mexico and continue
to move east-southeastward. VFR will continue throughout the rest
of the afternoon and into the early evening, with scattered TSTMs
expected to affect KLBB and KPVW near 10/04Z (11 PM CDT) and
lasting for a few hours before dissipating entirely by the early
morning hours. Strong surface gusts and reduced VSBYs from locally
heavy rain will be the primary hazards from TSTMs, with the
prevailing wind remaining out of the east otherwise. VFR expected
after convection diminishes later tonight.

Sincavage

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....30
AVIATION...09

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

TXZ021>044-101945-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
240 PM CDT Sat Sep 9 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms with wind gusts up to 60 mph and
hail to the size of quarters are possible later this evening, mainly
across the western South Plains and far southwest Texas Panhandle.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday.

There is a chance of thunderstorms each day Sunday through
Friday. Some storms may produce locally heavy rain.