An upper-level trough over the Tennessee valley and a stalled frontal boundary over western North Carolina and Virginia combined with a surface trough over the Coastal Plain of central North Carolina brought several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding and damaging winds were reported in Wake, Halifax, and Forsyth counties.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS RAH wrote it up.
An upper-level trough over the Tennessee valley and a stalled frontal boundary over western North Carolina and Virginia combined with a surface trough over the Coastal Plain of central North Carolina brought several rounds of showers and thunderstorms. Flash flooding and damaging winds were reported in Wake, Halifax, and Forsyth counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Raleigh, NC wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 9, 5:55 AM EST, 3 hours 15 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Raleigh NC 655 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 .SYNOPSIS... A nearly stationary front will extend from eastern Virginia through central sections of the Carolinas and Georgia through Sunday night. Meanwhile, an upper level low pressure area over the Ohio Valley will drift southeast toward the Southern Appalachians as it slowly weakens. && .NEAR TERM /TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 340 AM Saturday... Confidence is high that we'll see good coverage of clusters of showers and storms today, although their placement remains less certain. A wavy but nearly stationary frontal zone is analyzed at this hour through VA/NC/SC/GA, from just NW of RIC to near BUY and through CLT. Deep troughiness sits atop but just W of this, from 925 mb up through the upper levels, extending from MI to W FL including a mid level low over far SW IN and another on the E-central FL coast near MLB, and these lows/troughs are all seen nicely on GOES layer WV imagery. Most models take the SW IN low SE into central TN this evening. Ahead of this, mid level perturbations will continue to ride northward from the E FL circulation, while in the lower levels (925-700 mb) the deep and gently confluent SE to S flow will further boost the already above-normal PWs, from around 115% of normal up to 135-150% of normal by late today, while the southeasterly component should help nudge the surface front a bit westward today. RAP-based mesoanalysis shows considerable CINH at this hour, as one might expect, but also plenty of lingering elevated CAPE, and as a result we've seen isolated showers and storms just scraping our W border back into the NC mountains, as well as over E SC. The recent CAM runs have been quite varied with their placement of convection starting early this morning (with the earlier-than-usual initiation and growth due to the persistent elevated CAPE and rapid mixing out of surface-based stability with heating). But recently the ARW and HRRR have done a fairly decent job with reality, and both of these models show the current E SC convection riding northward into/through our area this morning with upscale growth esp by midday or early afternoon. There are also signs of a deep sea breeze front prompting additional convection in the NC Coastal Plain this afternoon. All of this activity should be slow to dwindle this evening and overnight as moisture remains abundant through the column, with scattered showers and isolated storms shifting into the far W Piedmont after midnight, propelled by the low level southeasterly flow. Consideration was given to a possible flood watch over our far W Piedmont where congealing and clustering storms and high water content and warm rain processes could lead to isolated 2"+ totals. However, our W sections really haven't had much rain in the last 7 days, including yesterday, and the low coverage of the higher amounts and uncertainty regarding the "where" of localized heavier rain tips the scales against a flood watch at this time. That said, certainly an isolated flash flood warning or flood advisory remains possible in this soupy regime. After the areas of stratus/fog lifts and partially burns off by mid morning, expect partly cloudy skies for a brief time this morning before convective clouds fill in. Highs 80-87, followed by muggy lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 AM Saturday... The TN upper low will be starting to fill/weaken early Sun morning as it transitions into an open wave and begins to shear northeastward into WV and W PA through Sun night. This will help veer our low and mid level flow from a SE/S to a more SW direction which will nudge the above-normal PW to our N and NE into VA. Mid level minor waves on the SE side of this trough will spread across W and north central NC Sun/Sun night, and this should add a dynamic boost to the moderate (but slightly more modest compared to today) CAPE that develops with heating that is filtered/delayed (by morning stratus). Still expect good coverage of showers and storms justifying a likely pop for a few afternoon hours, but the higher pops are more likely to be across the NW. The lower PW and flattening/weakening mid level flow should result in a quicker diminishing of convection overnight compared to today. Highs near 80 to the upper 80s and lows in the mid 60s to lower 70s. -GIH && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 300 AM Saturday... What was once an upper low over the southern Appalachian mountains Saturday and Sunday will have filled and deteriorated into a lingering shear axis draped across the Mid-Atlantic by Monday morning. As it lifts off to the northeast through the day, weak mid- level height rises and drier air above 700mb spreads east over the Mid-Atlantic throughout the day on Monday. Although there remains a non-zero chance for precipitation, a combination of the weakly subsident and dry mid-levels should limit any potential to the sea- breeze (affecting the Coastal Plain) and a trailing pressure trough (affecting NC/VA Foothills) while also keeping the chance for deeper convection quite low. With little airmass change at the surface behind the upper wave, highs will remain above normal peaking in the mid/upper 80s to low 90s with lows falling into the mid/upper 60s. Southwesterly flow aloft edges into the southern Mid-Atlantic on Tuesday ahead of the upper low as it migrates into the Great Lakes region late Tuesday into Wednesday. There is still a fair bit of uncertainty in the evolution and equatorward extent of the upper low Tuesday into Wednesday which will have implications on the sensible weather during this time period. This forecast will favor a more compact and slower evolution of the upper low during the mid-week (closer to the CMCE and EPS ensemble mean). This results in an increase in chances for showers/storms late Tuesday as decaying convection from upstream and perturbed southwesterly flow shift east into the southern Mid-Atlantic, and then again on Wednesday when more appreciable H5 height falls (30-40m in 24hrs) and upper divergence overspreads rich deep-layer moisture and a conditionally unstable regime in place. At this time range, it is important to note timing of all these features will play an important role for a severe threat, but predictability remains too low at this time. Highs will remain above normal ahead of the front, but with increasing cloud cover, precipitation chances, and potential frontal passage, there should be a wide range in temps from NW (mid/upper 70s) to SE (upper 80s) by Wednesday. Looking to mid-late week, Canadian high pressure will begin to build in behind the occluded area of low pressure centered over the Great Lakes and push a cold front through the southern Mid-Atlantic by Thursday morning. Cooler, drier conditions envelop central NC heading into the weekend. Behind the front, temps fall well below normal for mid-September featuring highs in the mid/upper 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s. Important caveat, this is entirely dependent on the eventual track of Hurricane Lee. There is still a fairly significant spread in when the forecast northward turn will occur as well as its along-track speed. Continue to monitor updates to Lee's forecast over the next several days. && .AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 655 AM Saturday... While there is moderate confidence that numerous showers and storms will track roughly northward through central NC today, the confidence in timing these out and in pinpointing precisely where they will occur is low. First, passing IFR cigs and MVFR to IFR vsbys in fog will continue this morning at RDU/FAY/RWI, due to yesterday's rain and the resulting damp ground, through 14z. We will remain in a very moist air mass today, especially this afternoon through evening, as a surface frontal zone holds through the western and central Carolinas, topped by a deep mid-upper level trough just to our W. We expect initially isolated showers over E and N SC to grow in number and push northward into central NC this morning, quickly increasing in coverage and strengthening into scattered to numerous storms by the afternoon. Every central NC terminal has a high chance of seeing a period of showers and storms at some point today, likely developing earlier than usual. Showers and storms will dwindle in coverage an intensity by around or soon after midnight as they push into western sections overnight. The risk of scattered showers and perhaps an isolated storm will continue after 06z focused mostly at INT/GSO, but will be weakening and overall coverage will be declining. Another round of sub-VFR cigs/vsbys is expected 08z-12z tonight into early Sun morning. Surface winds will be light and variable, under 10 kts except some strong gusts are possible in and near storms. Looking beyond 12z Sun, scattered to numerous showers and storms are expected Sun from midday through mid evening, mainly across the N and W with lower chances in the SE. Isolated showers may occur anywhere Sun night. Daily chances for early-morning low clouds and fog and afternoon/evening showers and storms will continue Mon-Wed as an upper level trough holds just to our W, although not everyone will see rain each day. -GIH && .RAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SYNOPSIS...Hartfield NEAR TERM...Hartfield SHORT TERM...Hartfield LONG TERM...Swiggett AVIATION...Hartfield
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 517 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 NCZ007>011-023>028-040>043-075>078-085-086-088-089-101000- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Halifax-Alamance-Orange-Durham- Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Moore-Lee- Harnett-Wayne-Scotland-Hoke-Cumberland-Sampson- 517 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. The greatest severe weather threat will be between 1 pm and 11 pm. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening. NCZ021-022-038-039-073-074-083-084-101000- Forsyth-Guilford-Davidson-Randolph-Stanly-Montgomery-Anson-Richmond- 517 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. A few strong to severe thunderstorms are possible today, with a primary threat of damaging wind gusts. The greatest severe weather threat will be between 1 pm and 11 pm. In addition, some storms may produce very heavy downpours capable of producing street flooding. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. There is a low probability for widespread hazardous weather. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
745 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
NCZ084-085-091245-
Scotland NC-Richmond NC-
745 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Scotland and
southeastern Richmond Counties through 845 AM EDT...
At 744 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles northeast of Chavistown, or 8 miles north of Bennettsville,
moving north at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Laurinburg, Rockingham, Hamlet, Hoffman, Dobbins Heights, Gibson,
East Laurinburg, East Rockingham, Laurel Hill and Sandhills Game
Land.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Heavy rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3480 7968 3481 7985 3489 7986 3491 7985
3493 7986 3507 7987 3503 7945 3497 7937
3496 7937 3464 7948
TIME...MOT...LOC 1144Z 187DEG 18KT 3475 7966
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
818 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
NCZ025-026-040-041-076-077-091315-
Lee NC-Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Durham NC-Harnett NC-Wake NC-
818 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of north central
Harnett, northeastern Lee, Wake, southeastern Durham, eastern Chatham
and southwestern Franklin Counties through 915 AM EDT...
At 817 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Zebulon to near Garner to 8
miles northwest of Lillington. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph, heavy rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Wake Forest, Garner, Fuquay-Varina, RDU
International, Apex, Holly Springs and Morrisville.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3605 7838 3591 7889 3561 7923 3544 7892
3565 7864 3581 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1217Z 146DEG 13KT 3583 7844 3570 7870 3548 7893
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
908 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
NCZ039-040-073>075-083-084-091400-
Stanly NC-Anson NC-Richmond NC-Chatham NC-Randolph NC-Montgomery NC-
Moore NC-
908 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Moore, east central
Anson, Montgomery, northern Richmond, southern Randolph, northeastern
Stanly and southwestern Chatham Counties through 1000 AM EDT...
At 906 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 12
miles west of Pinehurst, or 15 miles west of Southern Pines, moving
north at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Albemarle, Southern Pines, Troy, Carthage, Badin Lake, Pinehurst,
Aberdeen, Biscoe, Seagrove and Badin.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3551 8017 3551 8007 3552 8007 3560 7945
3513 7941 3499 7992 3549 8029
TIME...MOT...LOC 1306Z 160DEG 15KT 3520 7968
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CASpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
912 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
NCZ008-009-024>026-040-041-091415-
Chatham NC-Franklin NC-Vance NC-Durham NC-Wake NC-Orange NC-
Granville NC-
912 AM EDT Sat Sep 9 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of southwestern Vance,
southeastern Orange, southern Granville, northwestern Wake, Durham,
northeastern Chatham and northwestern Franklin Counties through 1015
AM EDT...
At 911 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Bunn to near RDU International to 10 miles
west of Fuquay-Varina. Movement was northwest at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph, heavy rainfall.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Raleigh, Durham, Cary, Chapel Hill, Creedmoor, Pittsboro, Louisburg,
Wake Forest, Carrboro and Butner.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3601 7819 3587 7863 3558 7890 3558 7892
3575 7932 3608 7905 3624 7837
TIME...MOT...LOC 1311Z 124DEG 15KT 3601 7827 3593 7873 3565 7897
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
CAThe Raleigh/Durham radar (KRAX), 25 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 14:11 UTC.
5 flash flood, 5 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
Flooding was reported along US Highway 1 at Walnut St.
Flooding was reported near the intersection of Walker St and Walnut St.
A tree was reported down near the intersection of Rocky Branch Rd and Poindexter St.
Utility company reports power outages due to fallen trees on power equipment near the intersection of Elbon Dr and Bowen Blvd.
One tree was reported down near the intersection of Tody Goodwin Rd and New Hill Olive Chapel Rd in Apex.
The Walnut creek gage along southeast Maynard Rd in Cary reached minor flood stage, peaking at 3.72 feet.
The city of Raleigh reported flooding along Hillsborough St at Western under the railroad.
Trees and power lines were reported down along Jr High School Rd in Scotland Neck.
Power outages were reported due to fallen trees on power lines.
The Crabtree creek greenway in Morrisville reached minor flood stage. The flood stage peaked at 9.45 feet.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in North Carolina in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in North Carolina, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1141256, 1141257, 1141269, 1141270, 1141271, 1141265, 1141263, 1141278, 1141279, 1141264.