A high pressure ridge aloft and a surface front just north of the region combined to provide a couple of days of stifling heat near the end of September.
Every event with a place to put it; 38 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS FWD wrote it up.
A high pressure ridge aloft and a surface front just north of the region combined to provide a couple of days of stifling heat near the end of September.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Fort Worth, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 23, 5:43 PM CST, 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 643 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes to the forecast through Sunday night. We're still watching a small area of focused low level convergence along and ahead of a dryline bulge near Wichita Falls this evening. Latest satellite imagery shows a small cumulus field bubbling in this area, but latest RAP objective analysis indicates modest inhibition remains. Water vapor imagery shows a slightly better mid and upper level moisture feed into this area which may indicate the presence of at least some modest mid level forcing for ascent, so it remains to be seen if this will be sufficient for a few storms to develop or not. We'll maintain some very low PoPs right along the Red River to account for this potential. Otherwise, we'll be watching the ongoing convection across the eastern half of Oklahoma as it eventually organizes into a cluster and spreads south into the Arklatex. This should clip our northeast counties after midnight and may linger into the early morning hours Sunday across our far eastern counties. Later in the day, a cold front will sag south into North Texas and will become the primary focus for thunderstorm development during the afternoon. At this time, we think late afternoon into the evening will be the main timing for the front to initiate convection, however, any strong residual outflow boundaries from morning storms could trigger some development well before then. Any storms that develop on Sunday could be severe with large hail and damaging winds being the primary threats. Until storms develop, it'll be another hot day with high temperatures pushing 100 degrees again. Heat indices will again be above 105 but cloud cover may limit heating in some areas. Given some uncertainty in this, we've left the heat advisory alone at this time. No other changes made as of this evening. Dunn Previous Discussion: /This Afternoon through Sunday Night/ Water vapor imagery shows a stream of moisture around the periphery of stronger mid level ridging across Central and South Texas. This ridging should keep a lid on most convective activity in our area this afternoon and allow temperatures to soar into the upper 90s and low 100s. On top of that, low level moisture will be difficult to mix out and dewpoints should remain in the upper 60s during peak heating. This will result in heat indices between 105 and 110 degrees...therefore the heat advisory will remain in effect. At the surface, an elongated area of low pressure extends throughout the Plains with a cold front expected to spread southward later today. This is in response to a potent shortwave racing across the Northern Plains. While the front will remain north of our area today, a weak dryline will be in place across our northwest counties. Focused convergence along this feature could be sufficient for an isolate storm or two to develop during peak heating, but coverage is expected to remain slim and we'll keep PoPs less than 10%. Meanwhile, tonight, thunderstorms are expected to develop along the frontal boundary well to our north across Oklahoma and these will spread southward during the late overnight hours. A modest low level jet will develop across North Texas and should veer into the southeast moving complex. This may tend to allow the storms to turn a little more southerly with time and we'll have some respectable PoPs across our northeast counties to account for this. While there will be some potential for severe storms, the overall complex should be in a weakening stage by this time. Strong outflow winds would be the main concern along with locally heavy rainfall. On Sunday, the cold front will make steady southward progress into our area and should be somewhere northwest of the Metroplex by early afternoon. A trailing shortwave trough will spread through the Southern Plains during this time and should provide additional forcing for ascent atop the frontal zone. With another hot and humid day expected, thunderstorms should develop along the frontal boundary by late afternoon and spread south into the late evening hours. There is a little uncertainty with respect to where the boundary will be located when thunderstorms develop and for now we've broadbrushed some higher PoPs into the evening hours. These will continue to be refined with time. Any storms that develop on Sunday will have the potential to be severe with mainly a damaging wind and hail threat. Dunn && .LONG TERM... /Issued 223 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023/ /Monday Morning Through Next Week/ A cold front that has been advertised over the past several days will already be passing through the area on Monday morning. As the front drapes southward, increased chances for showers and storms (generally 60 to 70%) will remain in the forecast along and ahead of the boundary. By this point in the forecast, the atmosphere will likely be overworked because of prior activity across North Texas on Sunday afternoon and evening. This will limit widespread strong to severe thunderstorms across Central Texas, but isolated instances of severe weather will remain possible ahead of the front due to marginal ascent and weaker deep layer shear. That being said, some thunderstorms will still have a low threat for hail and damaging winds as we move into Monday afternoon. Before the front clears our southern zones, it is expected to slow down and stall out. This will keep the potential for showers and thunderstorms in the forecast across portions of Central Texas overnight Monday through Tuesday afternoon before the front finally departs from our area. When all is said and done, storm total accumulations are expected to range anywhere from 0.50 inches along and west of the I-35 corridor and into the Big Country to upwards of 2.00 inches along our northeastern counties. Locally higher amounts will also be possible, but because of lingering drought conditions across North and Central Texas, widespread flood issues remain unlikely at this time. Despite this however, minor nuisance flooding and isolated instances of flash flooding will be possible, especially in those areas across our northeast that have received rainfall recently. Seasonably warm and drier conditions will prevail in the wake of this early week system, though an upper-level ridge is expected to build back in as we close out the month of September. Slightly above normal temperatures will continue with highs in the upper 80s and into the low 90s as we move toward the end of the week. Reeves && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail with south flow 10 to 20 kt overnight and into Sunday. The main concern through the period will be a cold front entering North Texas and developing thunderstorms by Sunday afternoon. Timing is a little uncertain, but we'll delay the VCTS until 23Z based on the latest guidance and continue TS into the late evening hours. It's likely that a TEMPO or prevailing TS will be needed at some point, but we'll wait until we get a better handle on timing. North flow will commence behind the front and thunderstorm activity on Sunday night into early Monday. Dunn && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 99 72 88 70 / 10 30 80 40 10 Waco 78 99 72 88 69 / 10 20 70 70 30 Paris 74 86 68 83 65 / 50 50 90 50 10 Denton 78 98 70 88 65 / 10 30 70 30 10 McKinney 77 96 70 86 66 / 20 30 80 40 10 Dallas 80 99 72 88 70 / 10 30 80 40 10 Terrell 77 96 70 85 67 / 10 30 90 60 20 Corsicana 79 97 73 88 70 / 5 30 80 70 20 Temple 77 98 72 91 69 / 5 20 60 70 40 Mineral Wells 77 99 71 91 66 / 10 30 60 40 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Sunday for TXZ091>094-100>105- 115>121-129>134-141>146-156>161-174-175. &&
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-241145- Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin- Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas- Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell- Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro- Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone- Leon-Milam-Robertson- 628 PM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight. Isolated storms may develop very near the Red River late this evening. Otherwise, a complex of storms will spread south out of Oklahoma and will likely clip Northeast Texas overnight. Gusty outflow winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be the main threats. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front moving southeastward through the region Sunday afternoon into Sunday night. Some of these storms could become strong to severe with damaging winds and hail the main threats. Locally heavy rainfall may lead to isolated flash flooding, especially over areas that have seen recent rainfall. Additional thunderstorm development is possible across Central Texas Monday before the cold front exits the region. A few of these storms may become strong to marginally severe. The main threats will be hail and strong wind gusts. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
38 heat. Local standard time, as filed.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24. Dallas County Health & Human Services reported 17 Heat Related Illnesses during this time period.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24. Denton County Public Health reported 3 cases of heat exhaustion and 1 case of heat stroke during on these days.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
High temperatures reached or exceeded 103 and/or maximum heat index values reached or exceeded 105 each afternoon over the weekend of September 23-24.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142906, 1142907, 1142908, 1142909, 1142910, 1142911, 1142912, 1142914, 1142915, 1142916, 1142917, 1142918, 1142919, 1142920, 1142921, 1142922, 1142924, 1142925, 1142927, 1142928, 1142929, 1142930, 1142931, 1142932, 1142934, 1142935, 1142936, 1142937, 1142938, 1142939, 1142940, 1142942, 1142943, 1142944, 1142945, 1142946, 1142947, 1142948.