A diffuse dryline mixed into the Rolling Plains on the afternoon of the 19th. Hot temperatures east of the dryline led to a deeply mixed boundary layer eroding a cap that was in place.
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The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
A diffuse dryline mixed into the Rolling Plains on the afternoon of the 19th. Hot temperatures east of the dryline led to a deeply mixed boundary layer eroding a cap that was in place. Strong instability and moderate deep layer shear contributed to strong supercell development from the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle into the northern Rolling Plains. One of these storms became severe in eastern Childress County producing hail up to baseball size.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 1:14 PM CST, 3 hours 38 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 214 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Isolated thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle and the far eastern Rolling Plains along the dryline. Surface based instability will continue to grow this afternoon with clear skies and dewpoints in the 60s east of the dryline. CAMs are in decent agreement that isolated strong-to- severe convection will form this afternoon but the main question is where this activity will initiate before moving east out of our forecast area. As of 1:30 PM, the dryline is sitting near and along the Caprock Escarpment marked by S/SW winds and dewpoints in the 60s to the east of the boundary. The dryline should continue to drift east and along with increasing low-level convergence this afternoon, several isolated thunderstorms could initiate in our forecast area. With forecast MLCAPE around 1000-2000 J/kg and 0-6 km bulk shear of 40-50 knots, environmental conditions are supportive for supercells capable of large hail and strong downdraft winds, along with a low chance of a tornado. The thunderstorm activity that initiates in the afternoon should be clearing out of the area around sunset but some elevated convection may be possible later tonight in the Rolling Plains and eastern South Plains. Precipitation chances will be much lower tomorrow as shortwave ridging build in over the area with hot temperatures again. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Monday) Issued at 211 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 Tomorrow night the shortwave ridge on the northern periphery of the high over Mexico will translate eastward. An upper closed low over the Pacific Northwest in conjunction with the upper ridge over the southern tip of Texas will give way to the return of southwesterly flow aloft. Showers and thunderstorms are possible Thursday morning with increased Pacific moisture combined with a weak disturbance in the flow aloft. Thunderstorms should remain below severe limits with minimal instability through the morning hours. Another weak disturbance associated with the upper low, may bring a few isolated stronger storms coming in from eastern New Mexico during the afternoon hours with gusty winds and small hail being the main threat. As the upper low swings eastward across the Central Plains through the weekend, a lee low will develop in southeast Colorado and also move eastward into Kansas/Oklahoma. Overall, temperatures will drop nearly 5 to 10 degrees by Sunday behind the Pacific front associated with the upper low and any precipitation along the surface front will likely remain east of the forecast area or just clipping the Rolling Plains. The pattern early next week may feature several shortwave troughs, which would help to keep temperatures right around normal for this time of year (mid to upper 80s) and potentially bring the return of precipitation chances to the South and Rolling Plains. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Isolated thunderstorms could develop near KCDS this afternoon and early evening but confidence that a storm will affect the terminal is too low to include in the TAF. If a thunderstorm initiates in the vicinity of KCDS, it will likely become strong to severe with powerful and erratic winds and large hail. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...17 LONG TERM....11 AVIATION...17
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 TXZ021>044-201945- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 241 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight. Severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening in the extreme southeastern Texas Panhandle and the southeastern Rolling Plains. Main threats include large hail up to 2 inches in diameter and damaging wind gusts up to 70 mph. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also possible Thursday and Monday. Any thunderstorms that occur are expected to stay below severe levels. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
The Altus AFB radar (KFDR), 99 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 22:52 UTC.
1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A report of baseball size hail in far eastern Childress County was relayed to the office from a trained spotter. No damage was reported.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
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NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1123373.