Arizona, 2023

Drought in Arizona, September 19 to 30, 2023

September 19 to 30, 2023 · NWS TWC · 5 events in 5 counties and zones

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz…

Where it happened

Every event with a place to put it; 5 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.

  • Tornadoes
  • Tropical storms and surge
  • Floods
  • Wind
  • Hail
  • Winter weather
  • Heat and drought
  • Cold
  • Fire, smoke and dust
  • Marine and coastal
  • Other

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The toll

Deaths
0
Injuries
0
Property damage
None recorded
Crop damage
None recorded
Events
5

Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.

What happened

The episode as NWS TWC wrote it up.

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Tucson, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 2:23 AM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 19, 2:23 AM MST, 2 hours 37 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
223 AM MST Tue Sep 19 2023

.SYNOPSIS...Dry with above average temperatures before a trough
brings gusty winds and a few degrees of cooling the second half of
the week. A slight chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday
before additional drying kicks in.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad westerly flow over the area with high
pressure over Mexico, and a weak low near the west coast. Some
additional drying with surface dewpoints in the 30s to lower 40s,
and GOES precipitable water estimates near or below 1/2 inch.

Over the next 48 hours, the weak low near the west coast will
shear into the base and front side of a strong low pressure system
digging south from British Columbia. This will develop a breezy
gradient as early as Wednesday afternoon, with breezy to locally
windy conditions Thursday. Possible fire weather concerns as
outlined in the discussion below.

Just enough mainly mid level moisture in the flow for virga to
isolated light mountain showers developing Wednesday, with a
slight chance to chance of showers Wednesday night into Thursday.
Very low QPF from 0 in most valley locations, maxing out at less
than 1/10 of an inch in mountains.

Cooler air advection will knock temps back to near climo for a
couple of days late in the week. Back to a zonal westerly flow
over the weekend with a few degrees of warming. The flow will be
dirtied up with mid level moisture off the Pacific at times over
the weekend.

Ensembles rebuild a ridge well to our east from northern Mexico
through Texas and the central to northern plains the first half
of next week. It could allow another moisture seep from the east
for isolated mainly light shower activity in eastern areas as the
bulk of storm chances remain downstream.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid through 20/12Z.
SKC. SFC winds terrain driven less than 10 kts, becoming SWLY/WLY
10-15 kts with gusts 18-23 kts 19/18Z thru 20/03Z. Aviation
discussion not updated for TAF amendments.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Generally dry weather will prevail through the
period with Min RH values mainly 10-15 percent from Tucson west,
15-20 percent in eastern valleys and 20-30 percent over the higher
elevations. There will be just enough moisture for a slight
chance of showers Wednesday and Thursday. 20-foot winds today will
generally be SWLY with some gustiness in the afternoon. A weather
system passing to our north mid week will cause an uptick in
winds speeds. Right now Thursday is shaping up to be the breeziest
with gusts of 30 to 35 mph in some locations. This could cause
critical fire weather criteria for an hour or two.

&&

.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Meyer

Visit us on Facebook...Twitter...YouTube...and at weather.gov/Tucson

The radar

The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.

Open the radar archive at this moment

Event by event

5 drought. Local standard time, as filed.

Drought, Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys

When
September 19, 5:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Santa Cruz River and Altar Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.812, -111.318 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

Drought, Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet

When
September 19, 5:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Eastern Cochise County Below 5000 Feet forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

Drought, Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys

When
September 19, 5:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Upper Gila River and Aravaipa Valleys forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
33.074, -109.563 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

Drought, Chiricahua Mountains

When
September 19, 5:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Chiricahua Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.880, -109.751 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

Drought, Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains

When
September 19, 5:00 AM MST to September 30, 11:59 PM MST
Where
Dragoon/Mule/Huachuca and Santa Rita Mountains forecast zone
Reported by
Drought Monitor
Coordinates
31.834, -110.796 (the zone’s center; the record gives no point)

The extreme (D3) drought category was introduced to far southern and eastern sections of southeast Arizona during the latter half of September. The area near the New Mexico line encompassed southern Greenlee, southeast Graham and eastern Cochise counties, including the Chiricahua Mountains; while areas near the International Border stretched from the Huachuca Mountains westward across Santa Cruz County to the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in southeast Pima County. Many locations within the extreme drought area only received 20-40 percent of normal rainfall during the monsoon. Soil moisture readings fell below the 5th percentile ranking by the end of September in most areas.

What these are

Drought
A drought reaching severe (D2) or worse on the US Drought Monitor, or with notable impacts.

After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.

The same day elsewhere

More

Every storm in Arizona in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Arizona, September 2023

Sources

NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1140830, 1140831, 1140832, 1140833, 1140834.