Severe (D2) drought conditions developed over northwest Mississippi by mid-September as below-normal rainfall and warm temperatures persisted. Lake and river levels continued to be at low levels as a result of the drought.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS MEG wrote it up.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed over northwest Mississippi by mid-September as below-normal rainfall and warm temperatures persisted. Lake and river levels continued to be at low levels as a result of the drought. Pastures were negatively impacted.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Memphis, TN wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Sep 19, 5:24 AM CST, 36 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
624 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Benign and comfortable weather will persist through late week for
the majority of the Mid-South. Low precipitation chances return
Wednesday evening, mainly confined to areas west of the
Mississippi River. Widespread rain coverage does not look to
occur until late weekend ahead of a cold front.
&&
.DISCUSSION...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Clear skies and cool temperatures overnight have allowed for
patchy dense fog to develop across portions of West Tennessee and
northeast Mississippi. The main area of concern is near the
Tennessee River and localized bodies of water. As the sun comes up
and temperatures begin to rise, fog will dissipate. Shortwave
ridging aloft will continue through tomorrow as a shortwave trough
settles into the west. Dry and cool air will be present for one
more day before a shift from zonal flow to return flow occurs.
Two upper level low pressure systems, one off the coast of
Southern California and one in the PacNW, will begin their tracks
across the country. The lows will phase together and eject the
aforementioned trough into the area bringing our first chance of
precipitation into the forecast Wednesday evening. Due to the
proximity of the trough, and an adjacent high pressure to the
north, precipitation will be mainly confined to west of the
Mississippi River. Any thunderstorms will be diurnally driven with
gusty winds possible. Outside of thunderstorms, QPF values will
remain a tenth of an inch or less.
As the westerlies remain progressive, this will intensify the
subtropical jet near southeast Oklahoma, causing a split flow
pattern. Precipitation chances will remain confined to west of
the Mississippi River due to the proximity of the strengthening
subtropical jet. Due to a lack of airmass changes east of the
river, highs will continue to be in the 80s and lows generally in
the 60s.
A pattern shift does not look to come until early next week ahead of
a cold front. More widespread rain is expected late weekend into
early next week ahead of the front.
DNM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Mainly a wind direction forecast. IFR VSBYs, due to fog, will
affect MKL temporarily this morning before giving way to VFR
conditions. No impacts are expected at all other sites.
AC3
&&
.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for MSZ005-006-
009.
TN...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for TNZ002>004-
021-022-053>055-091-092.
&&
PUBLIC FORECAST...DNM
AVIATION...AC3The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed by the middle of the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed by the middle of the month.
Severe (D2) drought conditions developed by the middle of the month.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Mississippi in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Mississippi, September 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1142289, 1142291, 1142292.