On the evening of the 3rd some scattered thunderstorms and showers moved through the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In the wake of this activity winds had picked up to around 35 to 45 mph in Lipscomb County for about an hour or so.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS AMA wrote it up.
On the evening of the 3rd some scattered thunderstorms and showers moved through the combined Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. In the wake of this activity winds had picked up to around 35 to 45 mph in Lipscomb County for about an hour or so. The mesonet station located near Lipscomb, TX measured multiple wind gusts around 58 and 59 mph during this time.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Amarillo, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 2, 11:31 PM CST, 1 hour 3 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1231 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM ... (This evening through Wednesday night) Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 The short term forecast periods bring multiple chances for showers and thunderstorms with a severe thunderstorm or two possible both Tuesday evening and Wednesday afternoon/evening, with a wind risk both days and a hail risk Wednesday. Suboptimal wind shear and timing of upper support for thunderstorm development should limit overall severe risk, however. 18Z WV satellite shows a continued omega block pattern over the CONUS with an upper low over SFO, weakening upper ridging over the High Plains, decent area of moist fetch extending from ID southeastward to TX, and southwesterly flow aloft with multiple embedded shortwaves over NM. Lead shortwave in this bunch is located roughly over Roswell as of 18z. At the surface, southeasterly moist advection has led to dewpoints rising into the mid 40s and lower 50s. This afternoon into tonight, expect a few showers and thunderstorms to develop due to continued low level moist advection and the slow cooling of mid-level temperatures as the ridge breaks down. Guidance continues to suggest convection will develop principally ahead of the approaching Roswell shortwave in the evening. While some models have shown early development in the Panhandles this afternoon largely courtesy of continued low level moist advection sufficiently destabilizing the column as peak heating is achieved, vast majority of recent short term model runs hold off until the shortwave arrives in earnest. Have leaned toward the later initiation solution as guidance has trended to a later arriving shortwave, suggesting temperatures aloft will still be too warm for afternoon convection to develop. This seems like a reasonable solution given strong morning inversion seen in AMA RAOB and satellite observations suggesting the shortwave will indeed arrive just a bit later than previously forecast. In any case, given the waning but still present influence of the upper ridge, winds aloft look to be quite modest resulting in anemic shear profiles, so am not expecting widespread severe thunderstorms. However, progged instability of around 1000 J/kg MLCAPE and our usual well mixed surface layer suggest a stray severe gust could occur. Finally, slow storm motions of around 10 knots suggest a risk for localized flooding, particularly if any storms pass over developed areas. Wednesday morning, lingering showers and a few rumbles of thunder will be possible as the Roswell shortwave slowly exits to the northeast. Available instability appears too low for any concerns for severe thunderstorms during this period. Moving ahead to Wednesday afternoon and evening, continued southerly moist advection will help instability build to perhaps 2000 J/kg of MLCAPE east of a lee surface trough that looks to approach the NM/TX border. As this occurs, winds aloft ramp up, with 0-6km bulk shear increasing to around 30-35 knots and a decent amount of turning seen in progged hodographs. Thus, should thunderstorms develop, could easily see a severe thunderstorm or two capable of producing large hail and damaging winds. Primary complication is going to be getting a thunderstorm to develop, as large scale descent following the exit of the morning shortwave may serve to suppress convective development during the afternoon and no additional shortwaves look to arrive until the evening hours. Given the above, am not overly excited about Wednesday's prospects for severe storms, but continued monitoring will be needed. Ferguson && .LONG TERM ... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 255 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 The omega block mid-upr pattern will slowly drift east and will finally break down through the end of the period. Weak H5 ridging between the two upper lows and SWRLY low level flow will promote continued above normal temps with highs well into the 80s with even some low 90s by Saturday. Another poorly timed s/wv rotating around a low centered near CA that makes up the west side of the omega tap into some h7-h5 moisture to provide another chance for shra and tstms Thu morn (favoring south) and aftn (favoring east). Much drier conditions will across across the Panhandles in the wake of the final S/WV going into Friday as it pulls a very weak front across the area. A prolonged period of very low RH combined with gusty SW winds (assoc w/ weak SFC lows tracking across or just north of the OK Panhandle) will lead to elevated to critical Fire Weather conditions Friday and Saturday. The threat will be dependent on impact that rainfall amounts the preceding days may have on ERCs. Some medium range models show potential for precip mainly across the far ERN or SERN Panhandles Sat-Sun associated with additional S/WVs rounding a WRN US trough. Moisture in the low levels appears very limited and precip is mainly assoc w/ H7-h5 moisture on Sat. Sunday precip chances are more associated with dry line induced storms across the east. NBM includes some low POPS in the east mainly Sunday and will keep as is for now, noting high uncertainty in this scenario. The main trough will swing across the area on Tuesday or Wednesday. The 12Z GFS and GEM are stronger and more excited with precipitation potential than the ECWMF, but med range models are all over the map. All that can be said for now is that there is potential for a more significant widespread thunderstorms event with this system, but track and strength could easily trend to something less favorable as well. Gittinger && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1226 AM CDT Wed May 3 2023 Rain showers may continue at KAMA for another hour or so before moving off to the east. A shower or thunderstorm may make it to KGUY in the next few hours, but confidence is not high enough to put in the TAF. Will amend if it looks like a storm may move over the site. Low clouds may move in across portions of the Panhandles and could move over KAMA, dropping conditions to MVFR for a couple of hours near sunrise. Winds will remain out of the south with this TAF cycle unless a thunderstorm moves over a site. Muscha && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Amarillo TX 80 57 84 56 / 30 30 20 0 Beaver OK 78 55 84 53 / 30 10 30 0 Boise City OK 81 54 83 47 / 30 10 10 0 Borger TX 83 59 88 57 / 20 20 20 0 Boys Ranch TX 84 57 86 54 / 30 30 20 0 Canyon TX 81 56 83 54 / 40 30 20 0 Clarendon TX 78 56 84 58 / 30 20 30 0 Dalhart TX 82 53 82 47 / 30 20 10 0 Guymon OK 81 55 85 50 / 30 10 20 0 Hereford TX 84 56 84 53 / 40 40 20 0 Lipscomb TX 76 54 83 54 / 30 10 40 0 Pampa TX 79 56 84 57 / 30 10 30 0 Shamrock TX 76 54 84 58 / 40 10 40 0 Wellington TX 78 55 85 57 / 40 10 40 0 && .AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. OK...None. && SHORT TERM...77 LONG TERM....88 AVIATION...05
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Amarillo TX 241 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-031000- Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb- Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson- Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth- Palo Duro Canyon- 241 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma Panhandles. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight. Thunderstorms may develop this afternoon and tonight across the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles. A few storms may become strong to possibly severe, with winds gusts to around 60 mph the primary hazard. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday. Thunderstorms will be possible across much of the Oklahoma and Texas Panhandles Wednesday through Thursday afternoon. A few storms Wednesday may become severe, with large hail and damaging wind gusts the primary hazards. Additional thunderstorms may develop Saturday and Sunday evening across parts of the eastern Panhandles. At this time, severe thunderstorms are not expected. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may become necessary late this afternoon and evening.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
948 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
TXZ006-011-030315-
Hartley TX-Oldham TX-
948 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Oldham
and southeastern Hartley Counties through 1015 PM CDT...
At 948 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 13
miles west of Boys Ranch, or 15 miles north of Vega, moving northeast
at 30 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Channing and Boys Ranch.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3590 10217 3550 10216 3550 10217 3544 10217
3535 10253 3571 10269
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 245DEG 24KT 3547 10249
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LFMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1027 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
TXZ011-012-016-017-030400-
Potter TX-Randall TX-Deaf Smith TX-Oldham TX-
1027 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northwestern
Randall, southeastern Oldham, northeastern Deaf Smith and
southwestern Potter Counties through 1100 PM CDT...
At 1027 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wildorado, or 11 miles east of Vega, moving northeast at 15 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Valley De Oro, Bushland and Wildorado.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3502 10238 3546 10239 3551 10197 3508 10200
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 243DEG 14KT 3524 10221
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
LFMSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1056 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
TXZ001-030430-
Dallam TX-
1056 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of western Dallam
County through 1130 PM CDT...
At 1056 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 10
miles east of Sedan, or 21 miles northeast of Amistad, moving
northeast at 20 mph.
HAZARD...Half inch hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.
This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of western Dallam
County.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3626 10304 3645 10298 3632 10258 3607 10287
3613 10304
TIME...MOT...LOC 0356Z 203DEG 18KT 3618 10294
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH
LFMSpecial Weather Statement National Weather Service Amarillo TX 1058 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 TXZ012-017-317-030430- Potter TX-Palo Duro Canyon TX-Randall TX- 1058 PM CDT Tue May 2 2023 ...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of northeastern Randall and southeastern Potter Counties through 1130 PM CDT... At 1058 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 6 miles southwest of Amarillo, moving east at 10 mph. HAZARD...Half inch hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated. IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible. Locations impacted include... Amarillo, Canyon, Lake Tanglewood, Mescalero Park and Timbercreek Canyon. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building. && LAT...LON 3499 10200 3522 10206 3537 10170 3503 10164 TIME...MOT...LOC 0358Z 253DEG 7KT 3516 10195 MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH LFM
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 high wind. Local standard time, as filed.
The mesonet located near Lipscomb, TX measured multiple wind gusts of 58-59 mph out of the SSW between 0134CDT and 0203CDT.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1100936.