An upper level low generated thunderstorms in a warm, moist airmass. Some of these storms produced locally heavy rain leading to local flooding.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EWX wrote it up.
An upper level low generated thunderstorms in a warm, moist airmass. Some of these storms produced locally heavy rain leading to local flooding.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 5:14 AM CST, 4 hours 1 minute earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 614 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Showers and thunderstorms associated with the slow-moving mid-level low remain over the eastern counties stretching from Williamson County south through DeWitt County. Over the past several hours, hourly rainfall accumulations have generally remained less than an inch per hour. This has led to a need for a couple of Flood Advisories, but nothing has been at the level of needing a Flash Flood Warning. Will continue to monitor trends overnight for any intensification and possible needs for any upgrades to warnings. The 00z HREF does point to a chance of this intensification between 1 and 7 AM. The eastern areas remain in a moderate risk of excessive rainfall overnight and the environment could support better rain rates. For the beginning of the short-term period after 12z, will keep PoPs mainly in the eastern counties with likely PoPs across the extreme east. The back edge of the precip area should be slowly moving to the east through the morning hours before exiting the CWA sometime likely by the early afternoon hours. The new Day 1 Excessive Rain Outlook has mainly a marginal risk as the bulk of the heaviest rain will likely be east of the area. Skies will be mostly cloudy this morning but there should be some sun peaking out for the western two- thirds of the area by the late afternoon hours. Highs today will be in the middle 80s to lower 90s with the higher values closer to the Rio Grande. For this evening, will have to watch for a possible stray shower or storm moving into the western Val Verde County. Overall chances are low, but SPC does have that area in a marginal risk. The remainder of the CWA is expected to remain dry overnight with low clouds returning and low temperatures reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s for the region. Thursday should also be mostly dry for most areas. There is a 20 PoP for the eastern two-thirds of the area for a possible stray shower with daytime heating but chances are not that high and anything should be light. Highs on Thursday will be in the middle 80s in the east and into the middle 90s in the west. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 235 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Synopsis: Initially situated to our north in the Central Plains, a collection of lee cyclones and weak surface fronts will consolidate through the day on Friday, with an attendant surface boundary reaching and stalling in the vicinity of South-Central Texas Friday night and into the weekend. Said boundary, along with a series of impulses ejecting in the mid-levels, will support rounds of showers and storms through this portion of the long term. Abundant moisture, which will be maintained by a strong 850 mb low level jet axis through Sunday, will support heavy rain and flash flooding potential during these rounds of activity. The heavy rain threat should gradually trend down from Sunday afternoon through the beginning of next week as 850 mb winds relax and mid-level ridging becomes established over central portions of the CONUS. Friday Through Sunday: Periods of showers and storms are forecast from as early as Friday afternoon through Sunday evening as the stalling surface boundary, a train of mid-level impulses, and intensifying southeasterly 850 mb flow all converge on the Southern Plains. A complex of convection is likely to track east from the Rio Grande Friday evening/early Saturday morning, with additional periods of showers and storms then possible from Saturday afternoon through early Sunday evening. Thanks to the very strong southeasterly flow in place at 850 mb, PWAT values spanning anywhere between 1 to 2+ standard deviations above the climatological means will support heavy rain and flash flooding potential, particularly in locations seeing repeated rounds of training during the period. Where said corridors of training set up remains uncertain, and will continue to be evaluated over the coming forecast cycles as more guidance becomes available. Despite the remaining uncertainty regarding training potential and locations, our confidence is moderate to high that at least some flooding potential will be realized over an area extending from the Rio Grande east through the I-35 Corridor given the prolonged residence times of the low/mid- level forcing and moisture influx from the Gulf. The Weather Prediction Center includes most, if not all, of the area in slight (level 2/4) risks of excessive rainfall in both its Friday/D3 and experimental Saturday/D4 Excessive Rainfall Outlooks in light of this potential. Moderate (level 3/4) risks are in place each day across most of the Rio Grande, Hill Country, and I-35 Corridor, where proximity to the best mid-level forcing will be greatest and confidence in flooding potential is highest. While still several days away, the best time is now to begin planning for heavy rain and possible flash flooding this weekend. Have ways to receive warning information if planning to be outdoors. Never drive through flooded roadways. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 Can't rule out a stray shower through the period, but chances are too low for any mention. IFR/MVFR ceilings will continue this morning before VFR returns by the early afternoon hours. Light SE winds will prevail for much of period. Another return of MVFR ceilings is expected tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Austin Camp Mabry 84 71 87 73 / 30 10 20 10 Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 84 69 87 72 / 40 10 20 10 New Braunfels Muni Airport 86 71 87 73 / 20 10 20 10 Burnet Muni Airport 83 68 87 71 / 20 10 20 10 Del Rio Intl Airport 93 73 97 75 / 10 10 10 20 Georgetown Muni Airport 81 68 87 72 / 50 10 20 10 Hondo Muni Airport 88 70 90 73 / 10 10 20 20 San Marcos Muni Airport 85 69 87 73 / 20 10 20 10 La Grange - Fayette Regional 82 71 85 74 / 70 10 20 10 San Antonio Intl Airport 87 71 88 74 / 10 10 20 20 Stinson Muni Airport 87 72 90 74 / 10 10 20 20 && .EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && Short-Term...29 Long-Term...Quigley Aviation...29
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX 348 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-111200- Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera- Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde- Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala- Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit- 348 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas.. .DAY ONE...Today And Tonight. Locally heavy rainfall is possible this morning east of I-35 and I-37. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday. There is increasing confidence with more widespread heavy rainfall and possibly higher impact flooding late Friday through Saturday. There is a level 3 out of 4 risk for excessive rainfall during this time across much of the area. Check frequently for updates to the forecast as details are fine-tuned. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not anticipated.
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
925 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0632 AM FLOOD YORKTOWN 28.98N 97.51W
05/10/2023 DEWITT TX LAW ENFORCEMENT
WATER REPORTED OVER MULTIPLE ROADS IN AND
AROUND THE CITY OF YORKTOWN IN DEWITT COUNTY
DUE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVERNIGHT. MAIN ROADS
INCLUDE, BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO, HIGHWAY 119
N, 5TH, 8TH, AND 12TH STREETS.
&&
BGPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
932 AM CDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0925 AM FLOOD 2 NNE MEYERSVILLE 28.95N 97.30W
05/10/2023 DEWITT TX DEPT OF HIGHWAYS
ACCORDING TO DRIVE TEXAS, LOW WATER
CROSSINGS ARE FLOODING ALONG FM 3157 IN
BETWEEN CUERO AND MEYERSVILLE. BOTH
NORTHBOUND AND SOUTHBOUND LANES ARE
AFFECTED.
&&
BGThe national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Thunderstorms produced heavy rain that led to flooding. Drive Texas reported that FM 1353 was closed in both directions between Hwy 181 and FM 2102 southwest of Karnes City due to flooding.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1103077.