A wildfire ignited in the town of Sapello, NM just outside of the recent Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. The fire was discovered around 4 pm MDT along Highway 94 just west of Sapello.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS ABQ wrote it up.
A wildfire ignited in the town of Sapello, NM just outside of the recent Hermit's Peak/Calf Canyon burn scar. The fire was discovered around 4 pm MDT along Highway 94 just west of Sapello. The fire resulted in road closures, mandatory evacuations for residents in Canoncito through May 12, 2023, and structures burned. A red flag warning was in effect for this area at the time of ignition for critical fire weather conditions. The fire was ninety percent contained by May 15, 2023 as calmer winds and higher moisture settled in.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Albuquerque, NM wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at May 10, 2:08 PM MST, 52 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Albuquerque NM 308 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 ...New SYNOPSIS, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 Windy and dry conditions will be the rule for the remainder of the day across much of New Mexico. The exception will be across northeast NM where showers and thunderstorms will persist. Some storms may produce damaging wind gusts and small hail. Friday will be much quieter, then a wet Mother's Day weekend will be in store. Moisture will surge into New Mexico from east to west Friday night and Saturday. Rain will be the dominant precipitation type across eastern New Mexico, but showers and thunderstorms are expected across central and western areas through the weekend. Locally heavy rainfall is possible. The moisture will recycle in the form of showers and thunderstorms through much of next week, which will increase the chances for burn scar flash flooding. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Thursday night) Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 An upper level low pressure system crossing northwest parts of the forecast area this evening will shift north northeastward over eastern CO late tonight and Thursday. The system will continue to produce mainly drier variety showers and thunderstorms over west central and northwest areas this evening, with a gusty mix of wet and dry storms over northeast and far east central areas. The closer you get to TX, the wetter the storms will be. The slow moving upper low is forecast to produce rain and high terrain snow showers tonight into Thursday, including isolated additional thunderstorms Thursday afternoon. With a strong speed maximum in the polar jet aloft crossing eastern areas this evening into the late night hours, today's strong winds will diminish only gradually after sunset. In addition, a Pacific cold front will cross from the northwest tonight shifting winds out of the west and northwest for Thursday. The flow aloft will remain fairly strong on Thursday, and will mix quickly to the surface at lower elevations on Thursday morning. Peak gusts Thursday should vary from 35 to 50 mph with more fire weather concerns. High temperatures on Thursday should vary from near normal to as much as 5 degrees below normal. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Tuesday) Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 Friday continues to be the transition day between our windy and dry pattern and our upcoming wet pattern. Overall, Friday will be dry with much less wind. However, moisture will enter eastern NM Friday night via two different methods. The first, south to southeasterly winds will increase across southeast NM, drawing up abundant Gulf moisture. The second will be a backdoor cold front sliding into northeast NM. The front will continue to surge south and westward overnight, bringing a strong east canyon wind to the Rio Grande Valley. Moisture behind the front will surge westward to near the AZ border by midday Saturday. A few storms are possible across both northeast NM and southeast NM Friday night, but the wetter period will certainly be over the weekend. A baggy trough will be setting up to the west of NM on Friday, and a few weak disturbances will be rounding the base of the trough, crossing northern Mexico, before shifting northward over eastern NM and west Texas on Saturday as one main disturbance weakly closes into a low. The lift from the low, combined with the abundant moisture for this time of year (nearly 2 standard deviations above normal), will allow for widespread rainfall. Though there may be some thunderstorms initially across eastern NM, the area should stabilize resulting mostly in a prolonged period of light to moderate rainfall. The low very slowly moves northward over eastern NM through Sunday, and gradually loses its identity as it does so, but rainfall will likely continue. Now, across western NM, it may be a slightly different story. Temperatures are likely to be warmer west of the Central Mountain Chain than over the plains through the weekend, allowing for greater instability to develop during the afternoon hours each day. Thus, there is greater potential for not only thunderstorms, but locally heavy rainfall. However, precipitation coverage may not be as widespread as it will be across eastern NM. Thus, it will certainly be a tale of two halves over the weekend. Generally speaking, the heaviest rainfall amounts will be across eastern NM with amounts up to 1.5 inches. From the Central Mountain Chain westward, rainfall totals will likely be closer to 0.25 to 1 inch, with localized higher areas. There is some concern for rain and snow, particularly across the Tusas Mountains and the CO San Juans. Snow levels for the weekend will generally be AOA 11kft, and snow currently on the ground extends to near 10kft, and slightly lower in some areas. Again, fortunately, it appears that the heaviest rainfall amounts will be east of that area, and the greatest concern will be if a thunderstorm develops right over the Tusas and/or San Juans. If it occurs, already swollen channels from snow melt will swell further. Showers and thunderstorms will continue on Monday through at least the middle of next week as upper level high pressure builds over the Desert Southwest. In fact, moisture will be recycled, with storms likely favoring the high terrain by Tuesday and Wednesday. With each day's rainfall, there will be increasing concern for burn scar flash flooding as well. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 AM MDT Wed May 10 2023 Strong south and southwest winds today will shift out of the northwest tonight into Thursday morning as a Pacific cold front crosses. Wind gusts will probably peak near 45 kt across central areas this afternoon. Airport weather warning for 35 kt gusts has already verified at KABQ, and will hit more consistently late this afternoon into the early evening. In addition, scattered to isolated showers and thunderstorms are forecast over west central, northwest, northeast and east central areas this afternoon, with rain and high terrain snow showers and perhaps a few thunderstorms over the northern mountains tonight (with mountain obscurations). Storms over western areas will produce mainly dry microbursts this afternoon and evening with erratic wind gusts potentially over 45 kt. A mix of wet and dry microbursts are expected across eastern areas with the wetter cells favoring northeast areas, where a few severe storms may produce wind gusts over 50 kt and large hail this afternoon and evening. There will also be a chance for low level wind shear over west central areas, and in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo Mountains, overnight tonight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 300 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023 ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PERSIST IN MANY LOCATION THROUGH THURSDAY... A low pressure system will cross northwest NM this evening, then exit gradually north northeastward over eastern CO late tonight and Thursday. Widespread south and south southwest wind gusts from 40 to 55 mph will continue until sunset this evening, then wind speeds will weaken gradually tonight as directions shift out of the northwest with a Pacific cold front. A mix of wet and dry thunderstorms will continue over northeast and far east central areas this afternoon, with mainly drier variety storms over northwest and west central areas. Rain and high terrain snow showers will then occur tonight and Thursday over the northern mountains and northeast, with isolated thunderstorms in the mix on Thursday. With brisk flow aloft persisting, strong west and northwest winds will continue on Thursday with more fire weather concerns. Humidities will be critically low again over central and southern areas, with better humidities associated with the region of showers and thunderstorms forecast near the CO border. With this forecast package we decided to upgrade Thursday's Fire Weather Watch to a Red Flag Warning where we are most confident widespread critical conditions exist: from the central mountains eastward across the east central plains. Will let the night shift take another look at northern and western parts of the ongoing Fire Weather Watch for Thursday. High temperatures will vary from near normal to as much as 5 degrees below normal on Thursday. Haines indices mostly from 5-6 are forecast across southern and eastern parts of the Fire Weather Forecast Area, with 3s and 4s from the Albuquerque area northwestward. Humidity recoveries in the fair to good range are forecast tonight. Much weaker winds are forecast for Friday, when temperatures will rebound some. A pattern shift is forecast over the weekend as the jet stream hikes to the north and deepening moisture overspreads the forecast area from the east and southeast. Widespread showers and thunderstorms will develop Saturday into early next week. A gusty and moist backdoor cold front will plunge southwestward through the state late Friday and Friday night produce a potentially strong east canyon wind in the central valley late Friday night through Saturday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Farmington...................... 41 75 41 76 / 20 0 0 0 Dulce........................... 39 70 35 74 / 30 20 0 10 Cuba............................ 38 70 37 73 / 30 0 0 0 Gallup.......................... 31 72 32 75 / 20 0 0 0 El Morro........................ 34 66 36 72 / 20 0 0 5 Grants.......................... 32 72 30 76 / 20 0 0 0 Quemado......................... 33 69 35 75 / 20 0 0 5 Magdalena....................... 42 72 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Datil........................... 36 69 38 74 / 10 0 0 5 Reserve......................... 27 75 30 80 / 5 0 0 0 Glenwood........................ 36 78 40 83 / 0 0 0 0 Chama........................... 35 63 32 67 / 40 30 10 10 Los Alamos...................... 47 68 46 71 / 20 5 0 5 Pecos........................... 40 69 41 73 / 10 5 0 10 Cerro/Questa.................... 37 59 34 67 / 30 30 10 20 Red River....................... 32 50 30 60 / 40 40 20 30 Angel Fire...................... 28 60 26 64 / 30 20 10 20 Taos............................ 36 68 32 72 / 20 20 5 10 Mora............................ 38 66 39 71 / 20 10 5 10 Espanola........................ 44 76 41 79 / 20 10 0 5 Santa Fe........................ 45 70 45 73 / 20 5 0 5 Santa Fe Airport................ 42 72 38 76 / 20 5 0 0 Albuquerque Foothills........... 51 74 54 79 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Heights............. 47 76 50 80 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque Valley.............. 43 80 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 Albuquerque West Mesa........... 46 78 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 Belen........................... 43 81 45 83 / 5 0 0 0 Bernalillo...................... 47 78 47 81 / 10 0 0 0 Bosque Farms.................... 39 81 41 82 / 5 0 0 0 Corrales........................ 45 78 46 81 / 10 0 0 0 Los Lunas....................... 39 80 41 82 / 5 0 0 0 Placitas........................ 50 75 50 79 / 20 0 0 0 Rio Rancho...................... 47 76 48 80 / 10 0 0 0 Socorro......................... 46 82 48 85 / 0 0 0 0 Sandia Park/Cedar Crest......... 45 69 47 73 / 20 0 0 0 Tijeras......................... 45 72 47 75 / 10 0 0 0 Edgewood........................ 46 71 45 75 / 10 0 0 0 Moriarty/Estancia............... 38 73 35 77 / 5 0 0 0 Clines Corners.................. 38 69 40 74 / 0 0 0 0 Mountainair..................... 42 73 45 77 / 5 0 0 0 Gran Quivira.................... 43 74 44 78 / 0 0 0 0 Carrizozo....................... 45 77 49 82 / 0 0 0 0 Ruidoso......................... 41 69 44 76 / 0 0 0 0 Capulin......................... 41 64 38 69 / 30 30 10 20 Raton........................... 40 69 36 74 / 20 30 5 20 Springer........................ 42 74 38 77 / 20 20 5 10 Las Vegas....................... 39 72 39 73 / 10 5 0 5 Clayton......................... 48 74 45 75 / 80 20 5 5 Roy............................. 44 74 43 76 / 20 10 0 5 Conchas......................... 50 83 46 85 / 10 0 0 0 Santa Rosa...................... 48 79 46 83 / 0 0 0 0 Tucumcari....................... 50 82 47 84 / 30 0 0 0 Clovis.......................... 49 82 47 85 / 30 0 0 0 Portales........................ 50 83 48 86 / 30 0 0 0 Fort Sumner..................... 49 83 46 86 / 5 0 0 0 Roswell......................... 53 88 51 92 / 0 0 0 0 Picacho......................... 49 79 50 84 / 0 0 0 0 Elk............................. 44 74 46 82 / 0 0 0 0 && .ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Red Flag Warning until 10 PM MDT this evening for NMZ101-104>106- 109-120>126. Fire Weather Watch from Thursday afternoon through Thursday evening for NMZ101-104-106-121-123. Wind Advisory until 8 PM MDT this evening for NMZ207>241. Red Flag Warning from noon to 8 PM MDT Thursday for NMZ124>126. && SHORT TERM...44 LONG TERM....34 AVIATION...44
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
317 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023
NMZ227-230-102145-
Union County-Johnson and Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
317 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHERN UNION AND
NORTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH 345 PM MDT...
At 317 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 12 miles northwest of Capulin to 12 miles north
of Clayton Lake State Park to near Seneca. Movement was north at 30
mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Clayton, Des Moines, Folsom, Grenville, Clayton Lake State Park,
Seneca, Capulin, Mount Dora and Moses.
This includes Highway 64 near Mile Marker 359, and between Mile
Markers 361 and 429.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these
storms. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek
a safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.
&&
LAT...LON 3689 10300 3650 10300 3650 10304 3638 10304
3641 10351 3660 10429 3677 10429 3679 10427
3680 10429 3700 10428 3700 10316
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 187DEG 24KT 3686 10416 3675 10336 3656 10310
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
24PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
336 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0230 PM TSTM WND GST 3 S CAPULIN 36.70N 104.00W
05/10/2023 M61 MPH UNION NM PUBLIC
A PUBLIC WEATHER STATION MEASURED A 61 MPH
OUTFLOW GUST JUST SOUTH OF CAPULIN.
&&
RJHSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
351 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023
NMZ227-228-230-231-102215-
Far Northeast Highlands-Harding County-Union County-Johnson and
Bartlett Mesas Including Raton Pass-
351 PM MDT Wed May 10 2023
...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWESTERN
HARDING, WEST CENTRAL UNION AND SOUTHEASTERN COLFAX COUNTIES THROUGH
415 PM MDT...
At 350 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northeast of Mills, or 25 miles southeast of Springer, moving
north at 50 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Abbott, Gladstone and Farley.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If threatening weather approaches your area, take shelter in a sturdy
building.
Frequent dangerous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this
storm. Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a
safe shelter inside a building or vehicle.
This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor your preferred
media outlets and NOAA Weather Radio for additional information and
possible warnings from the National Weather Service.
A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM MDT for
northeastern New Mexico.
&&
LAT...LON 3609 10404 3610 10438 3661 10447 3659 10386
TIME...MOT...LOC 2150Z 181DEG 43KT 3620 10418
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
24PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
358 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 4 NNE LA CIENEGA 35.62N 106.10W
05/10/2023 M60 MPH SANTA FE NM ASOS
ASOS STATION KSAF SANTA FE MUNI AIRPORT.
&&
MBDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
359 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0353 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E STORRIE LAKE STATE 35.65N 105.13W
05/10/2023 M59 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS
ASOS STATION KLVS LAS VEGAS MUNI AIRPORT.
&&
MBDPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBUQUERQUE NM
400 PM MDT WED MAY 10 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0303 PM NON-TSTM WND GST 6 E STORRIE LAKE STATE 35.65N 105.13W
05/10/2023 M59 MPH SAN MIGUEL NM ASOS
ASOS STATION KLVS LAS VEGAS MUNI AIRPORT.
&&
17The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The Las Tusas Fire was discovered May 10, 2023 around 4 pm MDT just west of Sapello. The fire caused mandatory evacuations and burned several structures. Total acreage burned was 978 acres.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in New Mexico in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in New Mexico, May 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1092339.