Thunderstorms associated with an advancing cold front resulted in tree and roof damage on the evening of March 2.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.
Thunderstorms associated with an advancing cold front resulted in tree and roof damage on the evening of March 2.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Mar 2, 5:48 PM CST, 3 hours 7 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
548 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 352 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
So far this afternoon, capping is holding strong - and as a
result, only a handful of weak showers have been seen across the
area today. ACARS soundings as well as the 18Z soundings at FWD
and CRP imply pretty strongly that the cap is strong enough to
hold for some time in our area, though the lack of upper air data
in our north, where severe potential is the greatest is a bit of a
concern. Fortunately, that will change at 21Z when the TAMU
meteorology folks will have a balloon up. I suspect that the cap
will be quite operational when our friend (the balloon) arrives.
So...when does that change? Well, it may be some time...it might
not meaningfully change until we are in a post-frontal
environment. The warm front is already well up into North and
Northeast Texas where a new mesoscale discussion has gone up, and
the cap is just so strong, that there's a good chance that we
won't be able to defeat it until the mechanical forcing of the
cold front - or rather, the QLCS leading it - makes its way into
the area from Central Texas. This shouldn't happen until 02Z or
so.
Once we get to that point, we'll have to see how healthy an
updraft can be once it is forced into an environment much more
supportive of deep convection. Because above this cap, there is a
deep well of instability to tap into with steep midlevel lapse
rates. But...I've seen more than once that updrafts are so
disrupted that they're simply unable to take advantage of this
environment, leaving only more anemic showers and storms. This
seems most likely to happen in our southwest around Matagorda Bay,
where numerical guidance has pretty strong agreement in nothing
more than a broken line of showers moving through this area. The
farther north and east you head, the better a chance we'll see of
getting a stronger to severe storm.
Ultimately, I think the guidance is on the right track in showing
that the focus of this event will be north of our area, and if the
southern fringes of the strongest core of storms manages to dip
into our area, it will be in the northern third or so of our area
(think places like B/CS, Huntsville, Crockett, etc.) Even then,
I'd say our chances are pretty limited - with such a highly
conditional environment where the monster cap needs to be defeated
before we can even start talking about a storm becoming severe,
we're probably only looking at a small handful of storms at most
getting into this discussion.
Expect the line to exit stage right an hour or two after midnight.
In the post-frontal environment, look for gusty west to northwest
winds to develop as a cooler, drier airmass surges into the area.
We won't have a ton of time for temps to fall before sunrise, but
lows in the upper 40s in the north to the middle 50s at the coast
can be expected. Highs tomorrow should be notably cooler than
today - not an 80 degree high to be seen in the area. That said,
a sunny sky with dry air should warm up pretty effectively, so I
still have highs in the middle 60s to middle 70s in the forecast.
Winds should also begin to diminish later in the morning and into
the afternoon.
Finally, tomorrow night should again cool off effectively, and
with a fully night to chill out, we should see lows drop farther
into the 40s up north, and below 50 for all but the immediate
coast.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 352 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
No changes to the dry/quiet forecast on tap for the weekend. A flat
almost zonal ridge aloft combined with an eastward exiting surface
high will help to maintain this mild air mass over SE TX with day-
time highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Overnight lows should be
in the 50s and 60s. As the surface high shifts further east, winds
from the SE will be more established by Mon with temperatures war-
ming into the mid 80s for Mon/Tues. These latest 12Z runs have not
been as aggressive with the return of low-level moisture/POPs dur-
ing the late Mon/Tues period as the next front seems to be slower.
For now, the better rain chances should be Weds/Thurs as this next
cold front moves south through the CWA.
&&
.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 548 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
Periods of -RA/-SHRA are possible through early this evening before
the currently located central Texas line of strong to severe SHRA/
TSRA moves across CLL (around 03Z or so) and races eastward across
the rest of the area and then off the coast around 06Z. Storms along
the front could be strong/severe. Gusty S to SW winds ahead of the
front/storms will shift to the W and NW and remain gusty behind the
front. MVFR/IFR ceilings ahead of the boundary this evening will
become VFR with skies eventually clearing out behind the boundary
late tonight.
Tomorrow's gusty WNW to NW winds in the morning will gradually weaken
as the afternoon progresses. VFR tomorrow evening with light winds.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 352 PM CST Thu Mar 2 2023
Strong gusty onshore winds will remain in the forecast into the eve-
ning hours ahead of the next cold front. A Small Craft Advisory does
look reasonable for our bays/coastal waters tonight through tomorrow
for both before and after this front. Moderate to strong north winds
are expected in the wake of this line overnight through late morning
or early afternoon Fri. So, this along with already low astronomical
tides could produce abnormally low tides on Fri with low tide Friday
morning around 1ft below Mean Low Lower Water.
Light NE/E winds are expected Fri night/Sat with SE winds likely re-
turning by Sun...persisting through much of next week. Extended out-
look as the next cold front tentatively scheduled for next Thurs.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 49 68 46 76 / 90 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 53 73 51 79 / 70 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 58 72 59 70 / 50 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM CST this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST Friday for GMZ330-335-350-
355-370-375.
&&The Ft Hood radar (KGRK), 77 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:55 UTC.
4 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was downed near the intersection of CR 128 and FM 976.
A large oak tree was downed onto a truck in Copperfield Park in Bryan. Time was estimated based on radar.
Large tree limbs and a tree were downed in Tanglewood Park in College Station. Time was estimated based on radar.
Strong thunderstorm winds damaged the roof of a home near Weches. Time was estimated based on radar.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, March 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1078088, 1078089, 1078090, 1078091.