Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures near record levels allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across all of Zapata County and the western half of Jim Hogg and Starr Counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures near record levels allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across all of Zapata County and the western half of Jim Hogg and Starr Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 24, 11:55 PM CST, 5 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Ample moisture and the lack of a cap, or warmer layer aloft, allowed the sea breeze to get started early this morning. However, the lack of shear is keeping these storms from becoming too organized this afternoon. As a result, showers and storms are bubbling up along the sea breeze and/or outflow boundaries and fizzling out shortly after forming. We expect this to continue through the afternoon as the sea breeze and outflow boundaries slowly work inland. Shower and thunderstorm activity should fall off this evening as we lose the daytime heating. After having precipitable water values (PWATs) between 2.0" to 2.2" today, we're going to have much drier air filter in from the north around the eastern periphery of the H5 ridge anchored over the Four Corners region; PWATs Tuesday are forecast to drop to 1.3" to 1.5", or between the 10th and 25th percentile for late July. Rain chances drop to near 20 percent along the sea breeze as a result and even that may be a bit too optimistic. There's also a Saharan Air Layer (SAL, or Saharan dust) forecast to move overhead later tonight into Tuesday. This will help dry out the mid-levels even more and essentially choke off any showers or storms that attempt to form tomorrow. Near to slightly above normal temperatures are forecast through the period with middle to upper 70s expected tonight and tomorrow night and upper 90s to lower 100s for daytime highs Tuesday afternoon. With drier air aloft forecast to mix to the surface, dew points are forecast to fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across the region Tuesday afternoon. If that comes to fruition, then heat indices will likely stay below Heat Advisory criteria. However, it will be close in some areas Tuesday afternoon, especially those that got any rain today, so a Heat Advisory cannot be totally ruled out at this time. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Key Messages: - Near to slightly above average temperatures through the period - Dangerous heat indices each day, especially Sunday & next Monday - Scattered showers & t-storms possible Friday-Sunday The long-term forecast starts off with a potent 598-599dam H5 ridge parked over NM and a retracting(lifting)/deamplifying mid- level trough across the eastern CONUS. The ridge will be the main weather-influencer across Deep South Texas through much of the period, maintaining abnormally hot temperatures. However, deterministic & ensemble guidance indicate a weak vort. maximum pinching off of the base of the east coast trough and over the northern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night into Wednesday. Consensus in the medium-range models then form a weak inverted trough that is expected to retrograde westward (around the base of the ridge) across the western Gulf of Mexico Thursday and Friday, with the trough axis lingering over or just west of South Texas into Saturday. As the inverted trough draws closer to Deep South Texas, low/mid- level moisture and rain chances are expected to increase. PWATs stay generally around 1.3-1.5 inches Wednesday and Thursday, with isolated showers/storms possible east of I-69C, especially on Thursday. The overall coverage and precipitation chances jump up Friday, Saturday, and even into Sunday as PWATs increase to 2.0-2.3 inches by early Saturday morning. Models suggest activity in the form of an enhanced seabreeze both on Friday and Saturday afternoons when the best moisture & lifting are situated overhead. With that said, at this time, NBM ultimately caps rain chances to around 30-40% both days, likely due to residual subsidence from the aforementioned ridge still in place over the Southern/Central Plains, with coastal counties seeing the best opportunities each day. Chances then decrease Sunday and especially on Monday as the trough axis shifts westward and ridging begins to rebuild over TX. Despite increased cloud cover and precipitation chances late in the week and through the weekend, ambient air temperatures are still expected to remain near or just above seasonal averages across the region, with highs generally reaching the upper 90s near the coast, to near 105-107F across western Zapata/Starr Counties. With an increase in low-level moisture, will need to keep a close eye on dewpoint temperatures/RH% as they will play a critical role whether or not additional Heat Advisories will be needed. At this time, heat indices should stay below Heat Advisory criteria (111-114F) for all locations through at least Saturday, but the surge of low-level moisture may cause heat indices to climb near or exceed criteria for some portions of the RGV and Deep South Texas on Sunday and Monday afternoons. Stay tuned. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1255 AM CDT Tue Jul 25 2023 All quiet in the post-midnight Valley weather with clear skies and light wind below 5 knots...which could be enough to allow for some patchy light high MVFR haze mainly around Harlingen/Valley toward daybreak as temperatures fall toward the mid 70s there. Tuesday begins quiet, and with drier atmospheric air nudging in compared with Monday, precipitation may be hard to come by. Just light enough winds and just enough residual moisture may be sufficient to kick off isolated sea breeze showers and perhaps a thunderstorms, but expect them to dry out farther west and a thin corridor along IH-69E could be where the showers form...so retained the VCSH for Harlingen during the early afternoon. Winds will pick up a little during the late afternoon and slide west to McAllen before sunset...and skies will become clear after scattered VFR cumulus earlier in the day. Mid to late evening will see a return to evening modest southeast winds, too. && .MARINE... Issued at 240 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 Now through Tuesday Night...Scattered showers and thunderstorms are generally lifting south to north across the Lower Texas Coast. Otherwise, mostly favorable marine conditions are forecast through the period. This is due to surface high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico providing a weak pressure gradient over the western Gulf of Mexico. Light to moderate winds and seas generally between 2 to 3 feet are expected. Wednesday through Sunday...A diurnally-driven, enhanced pressure gradient along the Lower Texas Coast may create Small Craft Exercise Caution conditions for the Laguna Madre and Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 20 nautical miles offshore Wednesday through Friday afternoons. By Thursday, lighter winds and lower seas are anticipated as the gradient weakens slightly. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day/night beginning Thursday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 80 98 80 95 / 0 10 0 20 HARLINGEN 76 98 76 98 / 0 10 0 20 MCALLEN 79 102 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 77 103 78 102 / 0 0 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 90 80 89 / 0 10 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 78 96 79 95 / 0 10 0 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && AVIATION Update...52-Goldsmith
Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-251030- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Rio Grande Valley and Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Thunderstorms...Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, with the best opportunity for coverage on Saturday, mainly from morning through early to mid afternoon east of IH-69E and U.S. 77 and during the afternoon elsewhere. Expect occasional cloud to ground lightning and brief downpours with any storms...clusters, especially on Saturday, could produced minor flooding of poor drainage locations. Heat...The combination of temperatures near 100 and increasing humidity may push heat index values to or above 111 during the afternoon on Sunday, with Heat Advisories possible then, west of the barrier island. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-251030- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 802 PM CDT Mon Jul 24 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Friday through Sunday: Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected through this period, mainly from late night through early afternoon...except late afternoon beyond 20 nautical miles out. Occasional cloud to water lightning and brief downpours reducing visibility below 1 nautical mile in stronger cells is expected. Winds could gust to 30 knots in stronger cells, and a waterspout is possible as well. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. Update...52/BSG
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across all of Zapata County.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across western Jim Hogg County. The drought extended from approximately 7 miles west of the Jim Hogg/Webb/Zapata County lines southeast to approximately 11 miles east of the Brooks/Jim Hogg/Starr County lines.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across northwestern Starr County. The drought extended from approximately 11 miles east of the Brooks/Jim Hogg/Starr County line south about 7 miles before bending southwest 12 miles just northwest of FM 755 to west-southwest about 5 miles northwest of Roma.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1107174, 1107179, 1107180.