A wildfire started from unknown causes near 5537 Highway 6.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS GJT wrote it up.
A wildfire started from unknown causes near 5537 Highway 6.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Grand Junction, CO wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 25, 4:52 PM MST, 1 hour 58 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 552 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Tonight through Wednesday night) Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 As expected, showers and thunderstorms have fired off the higher terrain across eastern Utah and western Colorado. At the moment, the Tavaput and Roan Plateaus, as well as the eastern Uintas, are the most active and are expected to remain so through the remainder of the afternoon and evening. With PWATs on the increase thanks to a push of moisture from the Gulf of California, these showers are capable of producing some brief heavy downpours in addition to the expected gusty outflow winds and frequent lightning. Shower and storm activity will begin to diminish after sunset, although there is some indication in the hi-res models that a few straggler showers or storms will last through midnight across the northern half of the area. Between the lingering showers, cloud cover, and increased dew points, the Western Slope is in for another mild night tonight. Tomorrow will be very similar to today, with very little change in the placement of the center of the high to our south. As such, both the bubble of anomalously warm temperatures aloft and the tap of tropical moisture from the Gulf of California will remain in place. The main difference is that the upper level jet that is providing a little extra forcing to shower and storm activity today will no longer be in place. This means storms will be force primarily by the terrain, at least to start. As the day evolves and outflow boundaries begin to play a part, showers and storms may be able to move out over the valleys during the evening. But, as usual, showers will begin to diminish after sunset, with yet another mild night in store. In ares where showers and storms don't occur, afternoon gusts will create some areas of localized critical fire weather conditions. Temperatures will continue to run 5-10 degrees above normal for late July, meaning low 100s for the lower desert valleys, and upper 60s to low 70s for the mountain towns. The afternoon shower activity and cloud cover will work to our advantage and keep the daily highs out of record territory, but it will still be a hot one for sure. As mentioned above, overnight lows will be mild, also running 5-10 degrees above normal through the period. .LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 217 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 Diurnally driven showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue through the end of the week as high pressure remains anchored just to the south of the forecast area. Moisture which spread into the area earlier this week will continue to be recycled Thursday and Friday afternoon and evening fueling this activity. However, the pattern begins to shift this weekend as a mid-level trough moves from the Pacific Northwest and crosses the northern Rockies into Monday. In response, the high to the south recenters over the southern Plains opening the door to what appears to be the first burst of subtropical moisture into the area during the current monsoon season. Ensembles indicated precipitable water levels could rise to near or a little over an inch across portions of southeast Utah and southwest and west- central Colorado Monday and Tuesday. This seems reasonable as GFS, and to a lesser extent, the ECMWF indicated an inverted trough moving northward toward the area early next week (thanks to 15 for pointing that out). Consequently, chances for good measurable rainfall is increased, as well as localized heavy rain. In response to the increased clouds and showers and the shift of the heat dome to the east, temperatures will finally begin to ease back toward normal from Sunday through Tuesday. && .AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening) Issued at 552 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 VFR conditions will likely prevail for the next 24 hours. Scattered showers and storms will continue across portions of eastern Utah and western Colorado through the evening, especially over the higher terrain. Gusty outflow winds and lightning are the main threats from any shower or storm. Most of this activity should diminish by 06Z, though it's not impossible for a stray shower to linger into the predawn hours. Otherwise, quiet weather is expected overnight with light, terrain driven winds. Another round of convection develops by or shortly after 18Z on Wednesday with the higher terrain again favored. Gusty winds, lightning and brief heavy rain are the primary concerns. && .GJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CO...None. UT...None. && SHORT TERM...BGB LONG TERM...NL AVIATION...MDM
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Grand Junction CO 430 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 COZ001>014-017>023-UTZ022>025-027>029-261030- Lower Yampa River Basin-Central Yampa River Basin- Roan and Tavaputs Plateaus-Elkhead and Park Mountains- Upper Yampa River Basin-Grand Valley-Debeque to Silt Corridor- Central Colorado River Basin-Grand and Battlement Mesas- Gore and Elk Mountains/Central Mountain Valleys- Central Gunnison and Uncompahgre River Basin- West Elk and Sawatch Mountains-Flat Tops- Upper Gunnison River Valley-Uncompahgre Plateau and Dallas Divide- Northwest San Juan Mountains-Southwest San Juan Mountains- Paradox Valley/Lower Dolores River- Four Corners/Upper Dolores River-Animas River Basin- San Juan River Basin-Southeast Utah-Eastern Uinta Mountains- Eastern Uinta Basin-Tavaputs Plateau-Arches/Grand Flat- La Sal and Abajo Mountains-Canyonlands/Natural Bridges- 430 AM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023 This hazardous weather outlook is for eastern Utah and western Colorado. .DAY ONE...Today and Tonight Isolated to scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms are possible over the higher terrain today. Strong outflow winds with gusts to 60 mph and lightning pose the greatest threat with these storms. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday The potential for thunderstorms continues through the next several days, favoring more the southern mountains going into the weekend. Gusty outflow winds and lightning will remain the main threats with any activity. Storm coverage is expected to increase Sunday into early next week as deeper moisture moves into the region. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Grand Junction CO
537 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023
UTZ027>029-260000-
La Sal and Abajo Mountains UT-Arches/Grand Flat UT-
Canyonlands/Natural Bridges UT-
537 PM MDT Tue Jul 25 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Grand
County through 600 PM MDT...
At 537 PM MDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Castle Valley, moving northeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 45 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
This strong thunderstorm will be near...
Castle Valley around 545 PM MDT.
This includes the following highways...
U.S. Highway 191 in Utah between mile markers 119 and 124, and near
mile marker 126.
Utah 128 between mile markers 1 and 24.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3849 10949 3863 10959 3881 10928 3856 10914
TIME...MOT...LOC 2337Z 245DEG 23KT 3860 10947
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
15The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The HWY 6 Fire started in late July from unknown causes in Garfield County, and grew to 100 acres before it was contained the next day.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Colorado in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Colorado, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1105491.