On the afternoon of the second, scattered thunderstorms developed within a low level upslope flow area in eastern New Mexico. These storms persisted into the South Plains of West Texas on a strong cold pool.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS LUB wrote it up.
On the afternoon of the second, scattered thunderstorms developed within a low level upslope flow area in eastern New Mexico. These storms persisted into the South Plains of West Texas on a strong cold pool. Outflow winds just ahead of the thunderstorms produced severe wind gusts near Anton (Hockley County).
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Lubbock, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 5:39 PM CST, 2 hours 28 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Lubbock TX 639 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Storm chances remain in the hopper this evening for portions of the region underneath weak northwesterly flow. Early afternoon obs showed light SE surface flow east of a surface trough poised across the plains of NM. Aloft, anticyclonic NW flow has been keeping conditions here quiet well downstream of upslope convection in NM. This convection is likely to survive its journey southeastward toward the western Panhandle this afternoon as it encounters an axis of minimal CIN and favorable CAPE. However, LAPS confirms a notable depression in CAPE that has been progged across our NW counties through the evening, so it's likely that convection will struggle to maintain its composure and undergo a steady downturn past sunset in our area. Forcing overall is quite modest with generally 10-20 knots of NW flow aloft, no LLJ and no Theta-E ridge to help focus moisture advection. Regardless, a window of likely PoPs presents itself early this evening across our NW counties with lesser chances south and east as the weak s/w trough drifts southeast. A few severe gusts this evening should be all these storms can muster given favorable DCAPEs approaching 2000 J/kg. Otherwise, outflow from these decaying storms will likely impact the remainder of the outlook area later tonight with occasionally breezy conditions. Monday morning looks quiet for most areas under weak subsidence following tonight's trough. A remnant convective mesohigh may also be found drifting off the Caprock through the morning. This feature could play a role in focusing moisture convergence in its wake by the afternoon on steadier SE/upslope winds. Models also key on another impulse in NW flow arriving by mid/late afternoon that should help spur slight chances for storms, mainly across our western and northern zones. Organized severe prospects are low in light of poor flow, yet CAPEs near 1500 J/kg could open the door to at least some pulse storms. Temp-wise, NBM's values look reasonable through Monday and are not far off from climatology. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 216 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Thunderstorms will remain possible Monday night for areas in the western South Plains and the southwest Texas Panhandle as convection in New Mexico may move across the border. POPs for the 0-6Z period on Tuesday have been slightly increased from NBM output for these areas as deterministic guidance has come into better agreement. Tuesday is expected to be hot and dry as the upper level high in the southwest US expands eastward. An upper level trough moving across the northern Great Plains will drive a cold front south through the southern Great Plains on Wednesday. Model guidance indicates the front could reach the southern Texas Panhandle by early afternoon and possibly stall somewhere in the forecast area. Thunderstorms will be possible along the cold front as it pushes south towards the forecast area with the best chances in the southern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures on Thursday may be slightly cooler if the front can push south through the forecast area but current guidance indicates it may stall in the southern Texas Panhandle. There is a slim chance of thunderstorms Thursday night with the frontal boundary in the vicinity and northwest flow aloft possibly bringing some thunderstorms into the southern Texas Panhandle. Temperatures will tick up on Friday and over the weekend as the upper level high becomes more centered over the forecast area. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 631 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 Broken line of TS stretching from near ROW to CVN to AMA at 00z will gradually translate southeastward through the remainder of the evening. Coverage of TS is expected to gradually decrease with eastward extent, however quite a bit of uncertainty exists regarding how far east this convection will make it before dissipating. Currently PVW appears to have the best chance of seeing TS with lesser chances at LBB, and CDS expected to remain well clear of any convection. Uncertainty is highest at LBB and will amend as confidence improves later this evening. Regardless of the precise positioning of TS, outflow will bring a period of stronger northwest winds to all sites late this evening before light winds return overnight. Expect strong/erratic wind gusts in the vicinity of convection, with VFR otherwise prevailing outside of TS. && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && SHORT TERM...93 LONG TERM....17 AVIATION...30
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Lubbock TX 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 TXZ021>044-030845- Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd- Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum- Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall- 331 AM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a slight chance of strong to marginally severe thunderstorms producing damaging winds up to 60 MPH this evening across the far southwest Texas Panhandle and northern South Plains. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms will be possible Wednesday through Saturday evenings. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be needed.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
747 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
TXZ022-023-030130-
Swisher TX-Castro TX-
747 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...Strong thunderstorm outflow winds will impact portions of Castro
and Swisher Counties through 830 PM CDT...
At 746 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong outflow winds from
thunderstorms along a line extending from 9 miles southwest of
Dimmitt to 3 miles north of Happy. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include...
Tulia, Dimmitt, Hart, Happy, Summerfield, Easter and Nazareth.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Strong winds will arrive before any rainfall. Do not delay taking
shelter until rain arrives.
&&
LAT...LON 3475 10160 3458 10152 3431 10187 3431 10253
3475 10252
TIME...MOT...LOC 0046Z 336DEG 30KT 3448 10247 3480 10185
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
838 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
TXZ022-023-030215-
Swisher TX-Castro TX-
838 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of southeastern Castro
and southwestern Swisher Counties through 915 PM CDT...
At 838 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles west of Tulia, moving southeast at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Tulia and Kress.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3448 10155 3431 10162 3431 10204 3463 10210
3472 10193
TIME...MOT...LOC 0138Z 317DEG 22KT 3454 10191
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
DWKSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
854 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
TXZ028-029-034-030230-
Hockley TX-Lamb TX-Hale TX-
854 PM CDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of northeastern Hockley,
western Hale and Lamb Counties through 930 PM CDT...
At 854 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 4 miles northeast of Earth to 5 miles southwest
of Amherst. Movement was southeast at 35 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Littlefield, Olton, Earth, Anton, Amherst, Cotton Center, Fieldton,
Spade, Halfway, Edmonson and Springlake.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 3431 10187 3382 10204 3382 10209 3373 10215
3389 10253 3431 10246
TIME...MOT...LOC 0154Z 294DEG 32KT 3429 10236 3394 10245
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...55 MPH
DWKThe Lubbock radar (KLBB), 38 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 02:07 UTC.
1 thunderstorm wind. Local standard time, as filed.
A Texas Tech University West Texas mesonet site near Anton measured severe wind gusts from 2007 CST through 2010 CST. A peak gust of 70 mph was measured at 2007 CST.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1098293.