Within a largely zonal flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough progressed eastward from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley by the overnight of July 2nd. Accompanying this trough, a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow overspread areas along and south of the OH River, across KY/TN through this evening.
Every event with a place to put it. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS JKL wrote it up.
Within a largely zonal flow regime, a midlevel shortwave trough progressed eastward from the mid MS Valley to the OH Valley by the overnight of July 2nd. Accompanying this trough, a belt of 40-50 kt midlevel flow overspread areas along and south of the OH River, across KY/TN through this evening. Likewise, a weak surface cyclone in northern IL will moved eastward to OH during the evening and overnight, while a trailing cold front moved slowly southeastward. The cold front stalled just west of Kentucky, and zone of ascent preceding the midlevel trough supported scattered to numerous thunderstorms through the night, with the attendant threats of damaging winds and large hail.
In the wake of weakening morning convection across KY, boundary-layer dewpoints in the low-mid 70s spread northeastward from the Mid-South as surface heating in cloud breaks boosted MLCAPE into the 2500-3500 J/kg range with minimal convective inhibition. Thunderstorm development began by early-mid afternoon along and ahead of the front across KY/TN and vicinity, and storms subsequently spread east-northeastward through late evening/early night. The increasing mid-upper flow over the warm sector resulted in sufficiently long and relatively straight hodographs for supercells and organized clusters capable of producing damaging winds and large hail. An isolated tornado or two was not ruled out by SPC, primarily where storms interact with lingering convective outflow/locally backed near-surface winds.
Two lines of thunderstorms rolled through eastern Kentucky throughout the afternoon and evening, each one resulting in widespread wind damage.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Jackson, KY wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 4:14 AM EST, 1 hour 6 minutes earlier.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Jackson KY 514 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 .SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday) Issued at 510 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 Early this morning, an upper level ridge extended along the Gulf Coast form TX to FL and into portions of the southeast. Meanwhile to the north, upper level troughing extended from Quebec into portions of the Northeast as well as southwest across the OH Valley to the mid MS Valley to the Arklatex vicinity. Further west, an upper level ridge was centered over the Southwest Conus with the axis of this ridge extending northeast to the Dakotas. At the sfc, two sfc waves were over the Great Lakes vicinity along a frontal zone that extended from the mid Atlantic states to the southern Great Lakes to the mid MS Valley region to the Southern Plains. In the warm sector, areas of clusters of storms were working across the lower to middle OH Valley regions as moisture continues to be transported into the region on southwest to west southwest flow aloft with a LLJ on the order of 30 to 40KT. Today and tonight, the upper level trough axis will approach from the west as the upper level ridge becomes centered over the FL peninsula. The axis of this trough will approach the area though tonight, but not cross eastern KY until Monday when the ridge becomes centered off the southeast US coast. Meanwhile, the wavy frontal zone will remain north and west of the area today with eastern KY in the warm sector as the initial sfc waves track across the Great Lakes to the Northeast and a third wave may develop over the mid MS Valley. This third area of low pressure should track northwest of the area tonight as it approaches Lake Erie toward dawn on Monday. At the same time, the sfc front should gradually move southeast of the OH River late tonight and on Monday when it should cross the CWA. Unsettled weather should persist in the short term period as a result. Although an area of convection will depart to the east and northeast of the area shortly, some of the convection to the west may reach the area around or shortly after dawn and work across the region this morning. This could be limiting factor to the severe threat later in the day and leads to some uncertainty of the degree of solar insolation and heating. Convective allowing models, however, depict recovery from midday through much of the afternoon before more convection arrives late in the afternoon and evening. Ahead of that convection, MLCAPE is forecast to peak generally in the 1500 to 3000 J/kg range late with MUCAPE stronger in the 2000 to 3500 J/kg range late this afternoon to early this evening with the higher values north and west and least near the VA border in southeast KY while bulk shear should range from 30 to 40KT with effective shear also in this range. Line segments with some cells with supercell characteristics or even a couple of discrete supercells appear possible across the region. Mid level lapse rates should be a bit marginal to be ideal for large hail at generally between 6.5C/km and 7C/km, though the degree of shear and relative hodograph length would support some large hail mainly with any more discrete cells. Any discrete cells that interacts with any leftover outflow could produce a brief isolated tornado. However, with low level lapse rates forecast to approach 8 C/km and DCAPE forecast to near 1000 J/kg, damaging winds will be the primary threat. There is a chance that instances of damaging wind could be scattered to numerous as depicted by 0Z HREF probabilties and SPC has increased the severe risk for much of eastern KY to Enhanced or a 3 out of 5. In addition to the severe risk, any location that received multiple rounds of heavy rain or training will have the risk for high water or isolated flash flooding. Storm motions should be rather quick this afternoon and evening on the order of 35KT which should limit this threat. However, all these threats will continue to be highlighted in the HWO and in social media and webpage posts including a refreshed DSS Packet. With the passing of a weaker lead shortwave and loss of daytime heating, the coverage and intensity of convection should wane by late evening into the early portion of the overnight. However, convection will remain possible tonight and into the day on Monday. Another peak in coverage is anticipated toward midday and the afternoon Monday ahead of the front coinciding with peak heating. Although a storm or two Monday could have some gusty winds, the intensity of storms should be considerably less with much less instability and weaker winds aloft and associated shear. Unless debris clouds are substantial today, most locations should climb well into the mid to upper 80s for most today while lows tonight should average in the upper 60s with abundant cloud cover and convection in the area ahead of the front. Ahead of the boundary on Monday, temperatures should climb to near normal for this time of year generally in the low to mid 80s (except 70s in the highest elevations). .LONG TERM...(Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 346 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 The long term period generally remains in tact. Upper troughing will be aligned across Nova Scotia, while broad ridging across Florida and the Caribbean. Locally, shortwave troughing is expected to lift out of the Ohio Valley, where a longwave positively tilted trough runs through Central Canada at periods start. Through Tuesday, shortwave ridging glides through the region, aiding in height rises across the area. Surface high pressure will be accompanied across the Commonwealth, meandering into the Mid Atlantic by the end of the day. Given a lack of broad forcing, showers or storms will be more confined to local processes, likely orographic lift or from outflows, where PoPs are best during the peak heating hours. Into Wednesday, some guidance (GFS & Canadian) depict a midlevel vort to swing through the Tennessee Valley, while the ECMWF oppositely has a shortwave ridge gliding through the Ohio Valley. Given the uncertainty, along with a summertime moist airmass, chance PoPs seemed reasonable. Further upstream, a surface low will be sweeping east through Canada, while an upper trough pushes a surface cold front toward the Ohio Valley through Thursday. Ensembles suggest this system to be slightly more progressive than previous data, with likely PoPs Thursday into Friday, though deterministic runs are struggling in alignment. The Euro is by far the slowest solution, while the GFS is the quickest. As such, have veered toward the more common middle ground suggested in ensemble means. Upon fropa Friday, the upper level pattern reverts back to a more zonal look. Eastern Kentucky will be sandwiched between the broad troughing to the north, with a large dome of high pressure setting up across the Southern High Plains. This could leave us in a corridor of rippling impulses, and thus, have veered toward the NBM's solution of chance (30-50%) PoPs into the weekend. In terms of temperatures, the first half of the period will be near seasonal norms (mid to upper 80s), while the second half (Friday into the weekend) veers cooler (low to mid 80s) post front. && .AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday night) ISSUED AT 230 AM EDT SUN JUL 2 2023 As of issuance time convection was ongoing over portions of Central KY. This activity should work into eastern KY during the first hour or two of the period and then east across the area, with a weakening trend with eastward extent where instability will diminish. Breif reductions into the MVFR range and gusts as high as 25 to 30KT may occur with this activity, though the stronger activity may pass a bit north of KSME and KLOZ before weakening east of I 75. Although some low and mid clouds with and in advance of the convection will continue to cross the area during the first 6 hours of so of the period, the dewpoint depressions in the valleys, especially southeast, suggest MVFR to IFR fog is occurring when combined with a recent observation from KI35 had 2.5 mile vis. Thus some MVFR and IFR reductions in fog were included until around 12Z or 13Z for the deeper valleys, though the TAF sites should generally be unaffected unless they are directly affected by convection and then have partial clearing toward dawn. Stronger instability and better dynamics arrive Sunday morning and continue into Sunday afternoon, with additional showers and thunderstorms expected to impact the area, particularly in the later afternoon to evening. Sub-VFR conditions can be expected with any of this activity and wind gusts to 30KT or higher in convection appear most probable between 21Z and 03Z when intensity should peak. Outside of convection, winds will average south to southwest around 10KT or less. && .JKL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && SHORT TERM...JP LONG TERM...BB AVIATION...JP
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Jackson KY 420 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 KYZ044-050>052-058>060-068-069-079-080-083>088-104-106>120-030830- Fleming-Montgomery-Bath-Rowan-Estill-Powell-Menifee-Rockcastle- Jackson-Pulaski-Laurel-Wayne-McCreary-Whitley-Knox-Bell-Harlan- Elliott-Morgan-Johnson-Wolfe-Magoffin-Floyd-Lee-Breathitt-Knott- Owsley-Perry-Clay-Leslie-Letcher-Martin-Pike- Including the cities of Flemingsburg, Camargo, Jeffersonville, Mount Sterling, Owingsville, Morehead, Irvine, Ravenna, Clay City, Stanton, Frenchburg, Brodhead, Mount Vernon, McKee, Annville, Burnside, Somerset, London, Monticello, Stearns, Whitley City, Corbin, Williamsburg, Barbourville, Middlesboro, Pineville, Cumberland, Harlan, Sandy Hook, West Liberty, Paintsville, Campton, Salyersville, Prestonsburg, Wheelwright, Beattyville, Jackson, Hindman, Pippa Passes, Booneville, Hazard, Manchester, Hyden, Jenkins, Whitesburg, Inez, Coal Run, Elkhorn City, Pikeville, and South Williamson 420 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a portion of eastern Kentucky. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Thunderstorms are likely, especially during the afternoon and evening hours. Some of them could be severe, with damaging winds being the main threat. However, hail and locally heavy rainfall will also be possible and an isolated tornado cannot be completely ruled out. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Thunderstorms are also possible at times from Monday through Saturday, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotters are requested to report any occurrences of wind damage, hail, or flooding today and tonight. JP
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
239 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
KYZ058-068-069-079-080-111-114-116-020730-
Jackson KY-Lee KY-Clay KY-Estill KY-Owsley KY-Rockcastle KY-
Laurel KY-Pulaski KY-
239 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of central Laurel, west
central Owsley, southwestern Estill, central Pulaski, Jackson,
Rockcastle, southwestern Lee and northwestern Clay Counties through
330 AM EDT...
At 238 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Danville to 10 miles west of Bee Lick to
near Cains Store. Movement was east at 60 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Science Hill, Ottowa, Indian Lakes Park, Quail, Bee Lick, Gum
Sulphur, Willailla, Bandy and Level Green around 250 AM EDT.
Somerset, Maretburg, Lake Linville, Spiro, Renfro Valley, Hiatt,
Wabp, Bromo, Sand Springs and Dabney around 255 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Mount Vernon,
Boone, Orlando, Flat Rock, Dudley Station, Muellersville, Hummel,
Burr, Bent, Pine Hill, Robinet, Cooksburg, Jep Hill, Donaro, Withers,
Johnetta, Horse Lick, Sinks, Gauley, Goochland, Dango, Middlefork,
Ardery, Carico, Loam, Cruise, Parrot, Templer, Eberle, Shirley,
McKee, Dabolt, Bunch, Shop Branch, Locust Branch, Jinks, Olin,
Atkinstown, Deese, Blackburn, London, Irvine, Ravenna, Mildred,
Wagersville, Sublimity City, Tyner, Zekes Point, London-Corbin
Airport, Herd, Nathanton, Leighton, Levi Jackson S.P., Elian,
Maulden, Green Hall, Alumbaugh, Maplesville, Shepherdtown and Cow
Creek.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Hal Rogers Parkway between mile markers 1 and 7.
Interstate 75 in east central Kentucky between mile markers 37 and
72.
Kentucky Highway 80 in Laurel County between mile markers 1 and 11.
Kentucky Highway 80 in Pulaski County near mile marker 17, and
between mile markers 20 and 40.
Louis B. Nunn Parkway
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3736 8456 3734 8450 3748 8444 3747 8438
3754 8435 3751 8426 3752 8420 3756 8416
3756 8409 3765 8413 3767 8409 3776 8408
3777 8392 3736 8381 3708 8400 3710 8490
TIME...MOT...LOC 0638Z 270DEG 53KT 3762 8475 3737 8468 3709 8488
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH
BBSpecial Weather Statement
National Weather Service JACKSON KY
614 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
KYZ044-050>052-058>060-021100-
Rowan KY-Montgomery KY-Menifee KY-Estill KY-Bath KY-Fleming KY-
Powell KY-
614 AM EDT Sun Jul 2 2023
...Strong thunderstorms will impact portions of Powell, Montgomery,
Bath, northern Estill, western Menifee, southeastern Fleming and west
central Rowan Counties through 700 AM EDT...
At 614 AM EDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Winchester to near Richmond. Movement was
northeast at 55 mph.
HAZARD...Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Strong thunderstorms will be near...
Grassy Lick, Sideview, Wades Mill, Prewitt and Klondike around 625
AM EDT.
Mount Sterling, Judy, Palmer, Stoops, Cressy, Iron Mound,
Ewington, Fox, Hargett and Gatewoods Station around 630 AM EDT.
Other locations in the path of these storms include Flat Creek, Spout
Springs, Kimbrell, Stepstone, Howards Mill, Peeled Oak, Hardwick,
Owingsville, Clay City, Virden, Waltersville, Powell Valley,
Westbend, Reynoldsville, Bourbon Furnace, Kendall Springs, Vaughns
Mill, Stanton, Marshall, Camargo, Slate Valley, Craigs, Wyoming,
Peasticks, Bean, Polksville, Cat Creek, Jeffersonville, Salt Lick,
Means, Cedar Groves, Lucky Stop, Clay Lick, Moore's Ferry, Walkers
Crossing, Oggs Station, Midland, Cornwell, Sharkey, Rothwell, Fagan,
Tabor, Ramey, Hope, Frenchburg, Sudith, Olympia Springs and Young
Springs.
THIS INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING HIGHWAYS...
Bert T. Combs Mountain Parkway between mile markers 12 and 32.
Interstate 64 in eastern Kentucky between mile markers 105 and 133.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
LAT...LON 3828 8350 3773 8374 3772 8409 3777 8409
3778 8411 3781 8408 3782 8410 3781 8412
3784 8410 3784 8408 3782 8407 3785 8406
3783 8400 3787 8403 3787 8402 3792 8399
3793 8397 3812 8408
TIME...MOT...LOC 1014Z 246DEG 47KT 3803 8418 3775 8432
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...30 MPH
BBThe Jackson,KY radar (KJKL), 25 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 10:17 UTC.
61 thunderstorm wind, 1 hail. Local standard time, as filed.
A tree was blown down at the end of Gifford Road at Highway 460 N.
A large limb was blown down and onto the northbound lane of KY Route 213 near Slate Creek.
The survey team found a power pole that was snapped and a slightly rotten tree that was split due to high winds.
A tree trunk was partially snapped at a residence near the 2700 block of Orear Road.
The survey team reported a partially rotten tree branch broken and laying along the side of the road near the Rumpke Landfill.
The survey team saw a large, healthy tree branch snapped, along with a healthy medium tree trunk snapped.
The survey team found a healthy uprooted oak tree along Nest Egg Road, near the intersection of Old Nest Egg Road.
The survey team found a healthy hardwood oak tree that had been uprooted along Nest Egg Road.
The survey team saw multiple healthy trees snapped along Levee Road.
The survey team saw multiple large tree branches blown down near the 7200 block of Carmargo Levee Road.
The survey team saw a large tree trunk snapped and laying on a front porch. In addition, portions of a shed roof were rolled up and another medium sized tree trunk was snapped.
The survey team saw a partial barn collapse with multiple places of roofing metal thrown in an adjacent field. In addition, multiple large tree trunks were snapped at the property.
The survey team saw multiple medium sized hardwood trees uprooted along the 300 block of Welch Road.
The survey team reported multiple large trees blown down or snapped along Cream Alley Road.
The survey team found multiple small trees and a weathered telephone pole snapped along Cream Alley Road west of Jeffersonville.
A tree was reported down and blocking the roadway near the 300 block of Whispering Pines Road in Means.
Two trees were reported down and blocking the road near the 2200 block of East Fork Road in Means, KY.
A tree was reported down onto a powerline on Amos Ridge Road, just past Amos Cut Road, southwest of Frenchburg.
A tree was reported to have been blown down onto a powerline, leading to the powerline being torn from the pole just SE of Frenchburg.
A tree was blown down onto an electric line leading to a fire near the 450 block of Mortbotts Road near the community of Denniston.
The Montgomery County EM was visiting Menifee County, and reported 1 inch hail starting at the intersection of 460 and KY-36, and running northeast along KY-36 to the intersection of KY-3 and Old Beaver Road.
A tree was downed onto Pear Tree Way near Frenchburg.
Images were received of a tree over powerlines and a house on Castle Drive. The 911 Call Center reported that the tree over the powerlines later caught fire. Power was turned off for around 1,000 customers while the tree was removed and powerlines were worked on. Power has since been restored.
A tree was downed half way along KY-1162 near the community of White Oak.
A tree was reported down just southwest of Logville over Hwy-364 (Rockhouse Creek Road) just prior to the intersection of CR-1141 (Trace Fork Road) heading eastbound.
Trees were downed at the intersection of Lacy Creek Road and Highway 364 near West Liberty.
Dispatch reported a tree down at the end of Gifford Rd at US-460 N at the community of Gifford.
Dispatch reported a tree down at the end of Gifford Rd at US-460 N at the community of Gifford.
Several trees were blown down near 200 Moore (Ridge) Road in the Foxtown Community.
Trees were blown onto powerlines in the Stambaugh vicinity according to a post on social media.
Trees were reported down near 2000 Salt Rock Road near the communities of Fox Town and Wind Cave.
A tree was blown down onto a powerline near the community of Auxier.
Trees were blown down onto a powerline leading to a fire in Van Lear.
Multiple trees and large limbs were down on Lake Drive just east of Prestonsburg.
Trees were down on KY-292 in the Warfield to Lovely areas.
Trees and limbs wee reported to have been downed in multiple locations along KY-292 from near Warfield to the Pike County line.
A tree was reported down over Eades Drive north of Irvine.
A tree was down on Chestnut Grove Road in the Chestnut Grove community.
A tree was blown down in Brodhead.
A tree was reported down on Tipton Ridge Road (KY-52) east of Ravenna.
A tree was down on Chestnut Ridge Road near the southside of Mount Vernon.
A tree was reported down near mile marker two of Hwy-1010, close to the intersection with Grassy-Backwater Creek Road, just north of the community of Maytown.
A tree was blown down on Big Cave Road, near I-75 just east of Mount Vernon.
A tree was blown down on South Wilderness Road (US-25) east of Mount Vernon.
A tree was reported down on Hwy-1746 near KY-52 near the community of Crystal.
A tree was down over KY-11 near mile marker 5 in Beattyville.
A tree was reported down over Blankey Branch Road near the Primrose community.
A tree was reported down on Hwy 364 just prior to the intersection with Trace Fork Road heading eastbound.
A tree was reported down on KY-1098, about 2 miles from KY-15 near Jackson.
A tree was blown down near 200 KY-290 just south of McKee.
A tree was reported to be down near the 8000 block of KY-11 South just SSW of Oneida.
A tree was blown down along KY-7 near Letcher County Elementary and Middle School.
A tree was blown down on Malvin Hill Church Road near Hwy 192 near the communities of Ruth and Grade.
A tree was blown down onto KY-11 near the community of Garrard.
A tree was blown down on Sandy Gap Road near the intersection with KY-80 between Somerset and London.
A large tree limb was reported to be down near 200 Riverbend Road just south of London.
A tree was reported down on US-472 in the Fogertown Community.
A tree was down along US-421 near the Clay and Jackson County Line, near Shepherdtown.
A tree was blown down onto KY-149 near the community of Hector.
Two trees were blown down along KY-223 near Escoes Market. One of these trees fell onto a powerline, causing a fire.
A tree was reported to have blown down onto 1st Street in Oneida.
The neighboring county's dispatch (Leslie County) reported trees were blown down in Harlan County near the intersection of KY-1790 and KY-221.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Kentucky in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Kentucky, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1124125, 1124101, 1121203, 1124642, 1121194, 1121206, 1121217, 1121204, 1121207, 1121218, 1121219, 1121220, 1121221, 1121216, 1121215, 1124644, 1124645, 1124646, 1124647, 1124648, 1121231, 1124649, 1121229, 1124637, 1124641, 1121190, 1124651, 1124652, 1121256, 1121305, 1121261, 1121274, 1121278, 1121275, 1121306, 1124634, 1121187, 1121236, 1121237, 1121282, and more.