During a period of hot, dry and windy conditions a wildfire erupted near Underwood, Washington. The fire was reported on July 2nd 1119 PDT.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS PQR wrote it up.
During a period of hot, dry and windy conditions a wildfire erupted near Underwood, Washington. The fire was reported on July 2nd 1119 PDT. The cause of the fire is under investigation and was expected to be contained by August.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Portland, OR wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 2, 3:53 AM PST, 6 hours 26 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Portland OR
453 AM PDT Sun Jul 2 2023
.SYNOPSIS...Strong high pressure over the NE Pacific and thermal low
pressure near the OR/CA border will maintain dry and breezy northerly
flow across SW Washington and NW Oregon the next few days. Thermal
low pressure will expand northward across western Oregon Tuesday the
4th of July and Wednesday the 5th, enhancing offshore flow which will
help temperatures heat up across the region. Temperatures will
approach 100 degrees for the hottest inland valleys Tuesday and
Wednesday. This appears to be a short-lived heat event though, as
strong onshore flow returns by Thursday and quickly moderates
temperatures toward the end of the week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...We continue to monitor what now appears will be a
quick-hitting heat event across SW Washington and NW Oregon, mainly
expected for Tuesday and Wednesday.
KEY MESSAGES:
* Heat Advisory is in effect Tuesday through Wednesday for the
Greater Portland/Vancouver metro, the Willamette Valley, and our
Oregon Coast Range and Cascade foothill zones.
* Dry and breezy northerly flow continues to elevate fire weather
concerns through Tuesday, the 4th of July.
* Hot inland Tuesday and Wednesday. Highs will approach 100 degrees
for the hottest inland valleys.
* Afternoon onshore breezes will maintain much cooler temperatures
along the coast, along with higher relative humidity.
* Increasing confidence that inland temperatures will begin to
moderate Wednesday night.
Heat Advisories have been issued for the Greater Portland/Vancouver
metro area, the Willamette Valley, as well as the surrounding Coast
Range and Cascade foothill zones in NW Oregon Tuesday through
Wednesday evening, as confidence remains high that uncomfortable and
potentially dangerous heat will develop.
A strengthening upper level ridge over the NE Pacific has elevated
heat concerns across western Oregon for this upcoming week. The
associated warm air mass aloft will begin an increasing trend in 850
mb temperatures today, which will be reflected in high temps pushing
90 degrees in the inland valleys today and Monday. Upper level low
pressure over the Canadian Rockies is expected to move eastward the
next 2-3 days. This had been expected to allow the upper ridge to
expand eastward into western Canada and the Pac NW by Monday, but
latest guidance appears to have picked up on a
stronger-than-previously-expected shortwave on the western periphery
of this upper low. This disturbance appears to be delaying the
expansion of the upper ridge, with 500 mb now shown to remain
cyclonic over most of the CWA through Monday night.
The lingering shortwave energy and upper troughing east of the
Cascades will likely put a dent in the hot air mass that was expected
for the Pac NW on Independence Day. However, unless it moves even
further west than shown by most 06z deterministic models, the upper
trough will also lead to stronger offshore flow and drier conditions
for Independence Day. So despite the air mass not looking as warm as
previously expected on Independence Day - at least north of Salem -
the downsloping offshore flow should somewhat compensate for that.
Therefore, despite the persistence of upper troughing over the Inland
Northwest, the confidence is still there to issue a Heat Advisory the
Greater Portland/Vancouver metro area, Willamette Valley, and
adjacent Coast Range/Cascades zones Tuesday through Wednesday.
That said, recent developments increase confidence that increasing
and deepening onshore flow will result in a quick moderation of
temperatures beginning Wednesday night. After giving a 65% chance of
Salem reaching 100 deg F Wednesday, NBM probabilistic data now show
only a 60% chance of Salem reaching 90 deg F Thursday, then only a
25% chance for Friday. The impetus for this cooldown is faster
deepening of the marine layer than previously expected, and strong
onshore flow to push it inland. By Thursday morning, drizzle will be
a good bet along west slopes of the Coast Range and possibly even
some of the S WA Cascade foothills. For those who were concerned
about the long-duration heat event models were briefly suggesting a
couple days ago, the probability of such an event appears to be
decreasing rapidly.
One other item to keep an eye on... if baggy upper troughing develops
over the Pac NW as some models show later in the week, there will be
an increasing chance of thunderstorms in the Cascades due to
steepening lapse rates and increasing moisture. Weagle
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Overall, the more flashy 1-hr fuels (like grasses)
and to some degree the 10-hr fuels (twigs/brush) will be dry, and
will be susceptible to ignition. Warm and dry conditions for Monday,
but mainly Tuesday and Wednesday, will keep an elevated potential for
such fires to break out if ignition occurs. Gusty afternoon/early
evening northerly winds could push a grass/brush
fire a bit. But, the large fuels are not quite ready to support more
expansive or rapid fire growth. So, those around any open fire
sources should be aware, and take care to minimize careless fire
starts. Fire should never be left unattended, and that is especially
the case over the coming days. Check your with your local fire
agencies to see if burn and/or firework restrictions are in effect
for your area.
&&
.AVIATION...High pressure will maintain mostly VFR under clear
skies through the TAF period. The Willamette Valley has a 45-65%
probability for north/northwest wind gusts up to 20 kt starting
around 22Z Sunday through 03Z Monday. 10-20% probability for gusts
in excess of 25 kt for the same time frame. In addition, 50-75%
probability for gusts up to 30 kt will be possible along the
coast from 21Z Sunday through 04Z Monday.
Temperatures will warm into the upper 80s Sunday which may be
enough to form small thermals on dark runways. While not typical
for these discussions, the long term forecast is quite hot
starting Monday with inland high temperatures well into the 90s
on Tuesday and Wednesday. Air density may be impacted as well as
thermal eddies forming on runways. Those working outdoors should
take caution. Excessive heat is not expected at the coast.
For detailed Pac NW aviation weather information, go online to:
http://weather.gov/zse
KPDX AND APPROACHES...VFR under clear skies through the next 24
hrs. 45-65% probability for northwest wind gusts up to 20 kt
starting around 22Z Sunday through 03Z Monday. 10-20% probability
for gusts in excess of 25 kt for the same time frame. /42
&&
.MARINE...No significant changes as conditions have changed very
little over the past 24 hours. High pressure continues to be the
dominate synoptic feature which maintain dry conditions with
persistent north/northwesterly winds. Daytime winds will be around
20 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt, with winds diminishing during
the evening and overnight hours to around 15 to 20 kt with gusts
up to 25 kt. Therefore, have extended all Small Craft Advisories
to late tonight. Current guidance does have the inner waters
falling below Small Craft conditions by that time, but these
conditions are expected to persist for the outer waters through
Monday morning. A second round of Small Craft Advisories and
marginal Gales with around a 45-65% probability by Tuesday
afternoon. Seas around 5 to 8 ft at 8 to 11 seconds through
the middle of the upcoming week. /42
&&
.PQR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 7 PM PDT Wednesday for
Central Coast Range of Western Oregon-Coast Range of
Northwest Oregon.
Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
Cascade Foothills in Lane County-Central Willamette Valley-
Greater Portland Metro Area-Northern Oregon Cascade
Foothills-South Willamette Valley.
WA...Heat Advisory from 10 AM Tuesday to 11 PM PDT Wednesday for
Greater Vancouver Area.
PZ...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Monday for Coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR out 10 NM.
Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Monday for Coastal waters
from Cape Shoalwater WA to Florence OR from 10 to 60 NM.
&&
www.weather.gov/portland
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www.twitter.com/NWSPortland1 wildfire. Local standard time, as filed.
The fire rapidly grew to around 530 acres. Ten homes were destroyed along with 50 minor structures.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Washington in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Washington, July 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1122739.