An upper level jet, interacting with moisture overriding a shallow cold air mass, produced scattered thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads during the early morning hours of the 8th. The storms trained across the city of Victoria, producing rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches in an hour.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS CRP wrote it up.
An upper level jet, interacting with moisture overriding a shallow cold air mass, produced scattered thunderstorms across the Victoria Crossroads during the early morning hours of the 8th. The storms trained across the city of Victoria, producing rainfall amounts of 3-4 inches in an hour. This caused flooding of roadways over central portions of the city.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Corpus Christi, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 7, 11:17 PM CST, 1 hour 55 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1117 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Sunday night) Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 The overall forecast for the short term period remains unchanged as a cold front currently extending from Texarkana southwestward to Del Rio will progress south-southeastward through Sunday morning. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across Central Texas along the front this evening and expand in coverage as the front moves into South Texas. The best chances for measurable precipitation will be along and northeast of I-37 where the PoP increase to 60%-80% from midnight through 6 AM. Southwest of I-37 the PoP will range from 20%-50% tonight into Sunday morning. The 12Z HREF and NBM guidance continue to indicate that most likely rainfall totals will be less than 0.5" with a low potential (around 20%) for totals greater than 1" across the Victoria Crossroads. A temperature inversion extending from 900-800 hPa sampled in the 12Z KCRP sounding will limit thunderstorm potential primarily to immediately along and behind the surface cold front. The 12Z HREF indicates that the elevated conditional instability characterized by mean MUCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg will persist for several hours after the passage of the cold front. Linear hodographs of forecast vertical wind shear will support a low chance for hail greater than 1" and damaging winds with any stronger thunderstorms that develop along the cold front late tonight. Therefore, SPC is forecasting a Marginal Risk (5%-10% chance within 25 miles of a point) for portions of the CWA northeast of I-37 from late this evening through early Sunday morning. Rain chances will taper off through the morning hours Sunday as the front moves offshore by mid day. However, lingering moisture and cyclonic vorticity advection will help maintain a 20% chance of showers over the coastal waters Sunday afternoon and night. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through next Friday) Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Rain chances are expected to increase across the region on Monday as moisture associated to a developing surface trough moves over the area. A few thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon inland, but most locations should see showers instead of thunder as much of the area remains capped. Energy in association to an upper level trough will be pushing through South Texas Monday night. Isolated showers will remain possible through early Tuesday morning mainly along portions of the Coastal Bend and Victoria Crossroads. But, in general, anticipating a gradual drying to occur as ridging then begins to build aloft and at the surface. Dry conditions are forecast to persist through Wednesday as ridging dominates over the region. The next chance for rain will arrive late Wednesday night into Thursday as a closed low moves through the Southern Plains sending the next cold front across the area. Precipitation chances however, will be slim and mostly confined to the Victoria Crossroads, immediate coast and marine zones due to limited moisture availability. A few thunderstorms will also be possible over the coastal waters. The front is expected to be near our western counties around daybreak Thursday, reaching the coast by the afternoon. Drier and much cooler conditions will follow the front Thursday night through Saturday with high pressure settling once again aloft and at the surface. Increasingly warmer temperatures can be expected Monday through Wednesday, before cooling over the latter part of the week. Highs on Monday will range in the upper 60s to low 70s, with temperatures increasing to the mid 70s to mid 80s by mid-week. Highs will return to the mid 60s to low 70s range by Friday. Overnight lows will be in the 50s to low 60s through Wednesday night, followed by lows in the 40s Thursday and Friday nights. The lowest temperatures are expected to occur Friday night into early Saturday morning. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1009 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Observations indicate that the wind shift from the approaching cold front are just reaching our northern counties. Showers and thunderstorms are approaching the Victoria Crossroads, but would not be surprised to see these develop along the boundary to the south and west as the front reaches deeper moisture. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected for all areas with the exception of the Rio Grande Plains where mainly a wind shift to the north is expected. Patchy fog remains a possibility ahead of the front, though most of the visibility reduction appears to be forecast during periods of rainfall. Showers will remain possible through the TAF period--even behind the front as isentropic lift persists. MVFR conditions will prevail for sites around COT and LRD, with IFR/LIFR conditions expected for sites along and east of 281. && .MARINE... Issued at 252 PM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 Onshore winds around 10-15 knots and seas of 3-5 feet will persist over the Gulf waters through this evening. Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase overnight as a cold front nears the coast. Increasing low level moisture could also result in patchy sea fog tonight ahead of the cold front. The front will move through the coastal waters Sunday morning with winds shifting to northerly and increasing to 15-20 knots. There is a moderate chance (30%-70%) that wind gusts will exceed 22 knots, primarily beyond 20 nm. However, these conditions are expected to last for less than 3 hours after the passage of the cold front. Due to the short duration of these conditions, a Small Craft Advisory is not anticipated to be necessary at this time. Winds and seas should gradually diminish Sunday evening into Monday morning. A generally weak to moderate offshore flow will persist across the waters through Tuesday. Southerly flow then resumes Tuesday night into Wednesday. The onshore flow is expected to strengthen to moderate levels Wednesday through Wednesday night in advance of an approaching cold front. The cold front is anticipated to pass through the waters Thursday afternoon with strong northeasterly flow developing in its wake late Thursday night through Friday. Chances for showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue through Monday night. Drier conditions will dominate Tuesday through Wednesday night as high pressure nears the area. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms Thursday with a cold front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 80 59 69 56 / 10 70 50 10 Victoria 79 55 66 51 / 40 90 50 0 Laredo 81 58 68 57 / 0 20 20 10 Alice 84 58 69 54 / 10 70 50 10 Rockport 74 58 67 56 / 30 80 50 10 Cotulla 81 55 70 54 / 10 60 10 0 Kingsville 82 59 71 56 / 10 60 50 10 Navy Corpus 75 60 67 60 / 20 70 60 20 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...TWH LONG TERM....ANM AVIATION...LS/77
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 327 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-080930- La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-Jim Wells- Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-Coastal Aransas- Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-Coastal Nueces- Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun- Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-Calhoun Islands- 327 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for south Texas. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. There is a moderate risk of rip currents today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms again Monday afternoon. Patchy fog will be possible Sunday morning along the coast. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275-080930- Baffin Bay and Upper Laguna Madre-Corpus Christi and Nueces Bays- Copano, Aransas, and Redfish Bays- San Antonio, Mesquite, and Espiritu Santo Bays- Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM- Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out 20 NM- Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM- Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to 60 NM- 327 AM CST Sat Jan 7 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Gulf of Mexico. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible this evening and overnight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday. Small Craft Advisory conditions possible Sunday over the Gulf waters, then again Thursday night through Friday. Sea fog will be possible Sunday morning across the bays and near shore waters. Scattered thunderstorms will be possible Sunday. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible Monday through Monday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. TC/EMF
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
1245 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023
TXZ234-080715-
Victoria TX-
1245 AM CST Sun Jan 8 2023
...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of east central
Victoria County through 115 AM CST...
At 1245 AM CST, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Brentwood Subdivision, or near Victoria, moving east at 25 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
possible.
Locations impacted include...
Victoria, Guadalupe, Victoria Colony Creek Country Club, Wood Hi,
Victoria Detar Hospital North, Victoria Riverside Park, Victoria
College, Victoria Mall, Saxet Lakes, Brentwood Subdivision, Inez,
Victoria Regional Airport, Telferner, Ball Airport Area and Downtown
Victoria.
This includes the following highways...
US Highway 59 between mile markers 622 and 640.
US Highway 77 between mile markers 572 and 576.
US Highway 87 between mile markers 808 and 818.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm and may lead to
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.
Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.
&&
LAT...LON 2896 9681 2892 9679 2892 9678 2890 9676
2889 9673 2886 9672 2885 9670 2884 9672
2882 9672 2881 9671 2871 9676 2876 9704
2890 9703
TIME...MOT...LOC 0645Z 274DEG 23KT 2883 9693
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
FORINASHPRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
104 AM CST SUN JAN 8 2023
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
1151 PM HAIL 1 NNW SCHROEDER 28.82N 97.22W
01/07/2023 E0.25 INCH GOLIAD TX TRAINED SPOTTER
TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTED PEA SIZE HAIL FOR
ABOUT 5 MINUTES IN SCHROEDER, TX.
&&
EMFThe Corpus Christi radar (KCRP), 123 km away, was scanning. The volume nearest the first event began at 07:10 UTC.
1 flash flood. Local standard time, as filed.
Flash flooding occurred on numerous roadways around Victoria. This included the Navarro Street and Laurent Street Underpasses, the Five Points area, and Crestwood Drive and Ben Jordan Street.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, January 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1077070.