Lack of persistent rain and dry to very dry conditions allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across all but the southeastern corner of Starr County in the latter half of February.
Every event with a place to put it; 1 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain and dry to very dry conditions allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across all but the southeastern corner of Starr County in the latter half of February.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Feb 20, 11:03 PM CST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1103 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 High pressure both aloft and at the surface will remain in place over the Gulf of Mexico through today before beginning to shift east on Tuesday. This will maintain warm and dry conditions through the forecast period. The main story through the short term will be windy conditions for Tuesday afternoon through Tuesday night. As an upper level trough moves into the southwestern U.S., low pressure will develop across the High Plains on Tuesday. This along with a strengthening low-level jet(LLJ) over Deep South Texas will lead to increasing winds for Tuesday into Tuesday night. Models continue to show the LLJ overnight Tuesday at 45-55 kts so Wind Advisories look likely in the late afternoon/evening into the overnight, mainly for Willacy, Cameron and Hidalgo counties. Temperatures will remain warm through the period with afternoon highs in the 80s and 90s and overnight lows in the 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 A rather quiet and warm long term period still looks on track for Deep South Texas. A mid-level trough across the Desert SW ejects northeast, a strong Pacific low drops south to Baja, and the subtropical ridge slowly works westward across the Gulf of Mexico, all maintaining a warm and generally dry southwesterly flow aloft across the lower Texas coast. At the surface, a weak meandering frontal boundary or dry line could help boost high temperatures Wednesday and Thursday into the mid to upper 90s across the Rio Grande Plains and upper 80s to low 90s across the lower RGV. No rainfall is expected through the period, with some question of marine fog returning Thursday and Friday with persistent warm southerly flow across the cooler Western Gulf. Overall, expect highs and lows nearly 10 to at times 15 degrees above normal through the period. Winds likely diminish on Wednesday before drier air works into Deep South Texas, limiting fire weather concerns at the moment. This will continue to be monitored for a potential Fire Danger Statement, if drier air arrives sooner or winds remain elevated later into the day. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1051 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Clear skies and moderate southerly winds prevail across Deep South Texas late this evening. Low clouds are expected to return later tonight with ceilings lowering to MVFR across all aerodromes with even some IFR conditions possible near daybreak. Light to moderate southeast overnight will increase and become breezy to windy by late morning into the afternoon. VFR ceilings are expected to return by the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 230 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 Now through Tuesday Night...Favorable marine conditions continue today and winds remaining light to moderate and seas of 2 to 4 feet. The pressure gradient tightens later tonight and especially into tomorrow night leading to strong winds and building seas. Small Craft Caution conditions are expected by early Tuesday building to Small Craft Advisories likely by afternoon. Winds will continue to increase into Tuesday night with some Gale force gusts possible but a gale warning is not anticipated at this time. Wednesday through Monday...Persistent southerly flow across the western Gulf of Mexico, aided by the exit of a low level jet early Wednesday maintains elevated seas into early Thursday. Small Craft Advisory to Small Craft Caution conditions are likely into Thursday afternoon. As high pressure builds across the Gulf of Mexico, expect persistent southerly swell with occasional Small Craft Caution conditions offshore this weekend into Monday. Marine fog may be possible at times Thursday and Friday with warmer southerly flow across the cooler waters of the western Gulf. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 67 80 68 88 / 0 0 0 0 HARLINGEN 65 85 67 91 / 0 0 0 0 MCALLEN 66 87 68 93 / 0 0 0 0 RIO GRANDE CITY 63 91 67 96 / 0 0 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 64 72 66 75 / 0 0 0 0 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 65 80 66 83 / 0 0 0 0 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...68-McGinnis LONG TERM....56-Hallman AVIATION...63-KC
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 410 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-212215- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 410 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight There is a moderate risk of rip current along local beaches today and tonight. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday An elevated risk of rip currents is possible at the local beaches through the entire period. A Wind Advisory may be needed for the central and eastern portions of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley Tuesday through Tuesday night. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-212215- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 410 PM CST Mon Feb 20 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Small Craft Advisories are likely Tuesday night and Wednesday for all coastal waters. Gale conditions due to frequent gale force gusts are possible for all coastal waters Tuesday night and Wednesday morning. Small Craft advisories are possible for the near and far offshore coastal Gulf waters Wednesday night and early Thursday due to hazardous seas. Higher seas may continue over the far offshore waters Friday. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
1 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Lack of persistent rain coupled with dry to very dry conditions allowed Severe (D2) Drought to develop across much of Starr County. This includes areas north and west of a line from 2.6 miles south of FM 1017 along the Hidalgo County line to 1 miles east of Rio Grande City.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1071527.