Freezing rain fell during the early morning hours of February 1 across portions of Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Walker Counties. Significant icing was observed in Burleson and Madison Counties.
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Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS HGX wrote it up.
Freezing rain fell during the early morning hours of February 1 across portions of Burleson, Brazos, Madison, and Walker Counties. Significant icing was observed in Burleson and Madison Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Houston/Galveston, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jan 31, 11:43 PM CST, 4 hours 17 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1143 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
...New AVIATION...
.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Just some quick thoughts on trends & the latest 00z HREF member
data. At 9pm, freeze line generally situated generally north of a
Burton-College Station-Madisonville-Grapeland line. ARW has
seemed to have a decent handle on temps the last several hours. By
morning it depicts the 32F line north and west of a Grapeland-
Columbus line. Precip-wise, HRRR seems to have lined up decently
with the precip trends since earlier today, though the latest 00z
HREF members are all fairly close.
A present lull in the precip is being observed. One can see some
incoming moisture transport on area radars along the mid & upper
Tx coast. Look for some of this to eventually "consolidate" into
a band of precip roughly along the I-10 corridor from Columbus
into the Hill Country in the coming hours and trek east northeast
across our northern 2 tiers of counties after 2-3am into the
mid & late morning hours Wed.
I think the current Warning/Advisory area is sound based on trends
and available guidance. Also, latest FRAM guidance does support
the current configuration with the Warning area potentially seeing
the more significant ice threats. Toyed with adding Grimes County into
the Warning area (mainly for the northern parts). However, will defer
to the midshift and keep an eye on radar/temp trends. Of course,
the majority of this all will depend on where the freeze line is
situated. Rates/downpours too high might actually transport some
of the warmer temps just above the surface downward, but guidance
doesn't generally show much of that. Otherwise, a cold damp night
elsewhere with slow warming temps areawide beginning in the late
morning hours.
In short...think the fcst is in pretty good shape and just made
minor cosmetic tweaks which mixed in some of the newest HREF
guidance to the previous fcst. 47
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
The overall theme for the short term forecast is disgusting.
Before getting into the freezing rain forecast, let's talk
temperatures. Burleson, Brazos, and Madison We will be watching counties
will be dropping below freezing this afternoon and will likely
not climb back above freezing until tomorrow afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will be falling to or below freezing for
areas north of I-10 and west of I-45, and also for areas north of
Lake Livingston. South of I-10 and east of I-45 will drop into the
mid to upper 30s. Those looking for a warm up on Wednesday will
need to go to Florida as high temperatures here will be in the mid
to upper 30s across the northern Brazos Valley and up through
Houston County and then low to mid 40s for most of the area. The
temperature graph for Wednesday will flatline as thick cloud cover
will keep low temperatures Wednesday night just be a few degrees
lower than the high temperature of the day.
Now let's get into the meat of the freezing rain. Temperatures will
slowly fall below freezing at the surface across the northwestern
corner of the region through this afternoon. However, this will be a
very shallow cold air layer with above freezing temperatures above
925mb (peaking at 10C at 850mb). The potential for freezing rain
will persist for the northern Brazos Valley through late Wednesday
morning, but may also see some isolated -FZRA Wednesday night. No
change to the warning/advisory configuration was made with Winter
Storm Warnings in effect through Noon Wednesday for Brazos,
Burleson, Washington, and Madison counties with Advisories in effect
for Colorado, Austin, Waller, Grimes, Walker and Houston counties.
There is the potential for Burleson, Washington, and Brazos counties
to see Advisories Wednesday night, but the potential is so low that
I am not extending the products at this time. Up to 0.15 to 0.2" of
ice accretion in the northwestern portion of the warned area is
possible with a light glaze to less than 0.1" is expected in the
northwestern portions of the counties in the advisory.
There is a possible solution where we do not get as much ice
accretion as expected due to rainfall, especially in more moderate
rain rates, pulling that elevated warm layer down towards the
surface. This would keep the rain droplets from supercooling - thus
no freezing rain. This isn't the most likely solution, but something
to keep in the back of our minds going into late tomorrow morning
when rain rates may increase a bit.
Speaking of rain, we also have the potential to see some locally
heavy rainfall across the northern half of the region beginning
Wednesday night and Thursday. Generally up to 1 to 2 inches is
expected with isolated high amounts. WPC has placed the areas along
and north of I-45 in a Slight Risk for Excessive Rainfall for
Wednesday night. This amount of rainfall would normally not amount
to any impacts, but between the already saturated, cold ground any
rainfall may lead to minor flooding in areas of poor drainage. Minor
river flooding is also possible in spots along the Trinity and San
Jacinto rivers as well as already high bayous in northern Harris and
Montgomery counties.
Fowler
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through next Monday)
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
We will be watching showers and thunderstorms and the risk of locally
heavy rainfall move off to the east as the day progresses on Thursday
as the coastal low heads on out of the area. Much drier air will filter
into the area behind this system as surface high pressure builds in
from the north. A dry forecast is in store for the area late Thursday
night through Monday with north winds at the start of the period becoming
mainly east to southeast over the weekend. Strengthening south to southeast
winds at the start of next week can be expected.
For temperatures, if you like a warming trend you will like this. Highs
in the 40s/50s on Thursday will be in the 50s Friday, in the 50s/60s
Saturday, in the 60s Sunday and in the 60s/70s on Monday. Inland lows
will be a little slower to rise, with readings in the 30s Friday and
Saturday and in the 40s Sunday and Monday.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1133 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Per radar/satellite, precip coverage has been increasing tonight
from the SW and will be expecting this trend to continue through
the overnight hours. The break from the -DZ/-RA has allowed CIGS
to climb briefly to MVFR but we should see them lower once again
through the next few hours. Otherwise, will keep with the IFR to
LIFR conditions through much of tomorrow. Winds should also pick
up tomorrow in response to the tightening gradient via the devel-
oping coastal low to the south. 41
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 241 PM CST Tue Jan 31 2023
Areas of fog will remain possible into Thursday morning. Visibilities
will vary, though it could be around 1 mile at times. Otherwise, mainly
moderate north to northeast winds can be expected through Thursday as
a coastal storm system organizes and moves up the coast and then eventually
off to the east. Caution and/or Advisory Flags will be needed. Before
the system moves on out, expect periods of mainly light rain with the
possibility of showers and thunderstorms mainly Wednesday night through
Thursday morning. Drier but breezy conditions are expected Thursday
night and Friday in the wake of the system (again, Caution and/or Advisory
Flags will be needed). Lighter east to southeast winds along with lowering
seas can be expected over the weekend. 42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 31 37 34 43 / 70 80 80 70
Houston (IAH) 37 43 39 47 / 30 70 70 80
Galveston (GLS) 44 49 44 49 / 30 60 60 80
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ163-177-
198-210>212.
Winter Storm Warning until noon CST Wednesday for TXZ176-195>197.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through Wednesday afternoon
for GMZ330-335.
Small Craft Advisory until 3 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM CST Wednesday for GMZ370-375.
&&
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...41
MARINE...42The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
2 ice storm. Local standard time, as filed.
Spotters reported icing on tree limbs, fencing, wires, and vehicles. Ice accretion of 1/8 of an inch was measured across portions of Madison County.
Significant icing was reported across Burleson by spotters and local media. This included ice accretion of approximately 1/4 inch on tree limbs and vehicles, as well as icing on State Highway OSR and Harvey Mitchell Parkway. A home in Caldwell sustained damage when a tree limb broke due to the weight of the ice, falling onto the roof.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, February 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1078782, 1078784.