Wildfire in Texas, December 4, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
1159 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM ...
(Today through Tuesday night)
Issued at 232 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Nothing exciting is expected in the short-term. Expect highs to
reach up to the upper-50s to lower-60s, which is warmer than average
for early December. A positively tilted shortwave trough embedded in
the northwesterly flow aloft will move through the central Plains,
sending a weak cold front through the Panhandles Monday night. Winds
will shift from southwesterly at 5 mph or less ahead of the front to
northerly at 10 mph or less behind the front. The environment will
be very dry, so not expecting any chance for rain. Lows will dip
into the 20's in the north, but low-30s in the south.

Tuesday's highs will be roughly the same as Monday. The surface high
pressure that will push the cold front through the Panhandles
will move off to the southeast later in the day. Expect
southwesterly winds to become established Tuesday evening across
the Panhandles at 5-10 mph. Models hint at a very weak shortwave
developing in the vicinity of the Colorado Rockies, and a
respective very weak and broad lee surface low, Tuesday night
which will help keep the winds in that 5-10 mph range throughout
the rest of this period.

Vanden Bosch

&&

.LONG TERM ...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 232 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Wednesday through Thursday is shaping up to be a period of dry
weather for the panhandles as a broad ridge sits across the Great
Plains. A weak trough in the flow looks to cross the southern
plains late on Wednesday and early Thursday. This is expected to
cause robust SW winds across the panhandles with gusts currently
favored in the 30s mph range. Temperatures under this ridge will
be rising with highs in the 60s Wednesday and then 70s by
Thursday.

Friday will see a pattern shift as the ridge departs and a trough
moves into the region. This trough will drag a cold front across
the panhandles most likely during the late afternoon to evening
hours. The front itself is looking to be a dry front with not much
in the way of precipitation. However following it passage some
moisture does look to enter the panhandles which can lead to
showers. Since these will occur in the cold air behind the front
and going into the overnight hours snowfall may occur. That being
said the amount of moisture currently is trending low so
accumulations are expected to minimal. This can change if
additional moisture does manage to sneak it way across the
panhandles by the odds are low.

Saturday and Sunday are favoring drier conditions as the small
amount of moisture moves out of the panhandles with a <10% chance
of further showers activity. The colder air settling across the
panhandles will cause the temperatures to fall roughly 15 to 20
degrees with highs on Saturday expected to be mainly in the 40s to
low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1155 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

VFR conditions will prevail at all TAF sites over the next 24
hours with gusty south southwest winds 20-25kts through about 20z
shifting northerly about 10-15kts thereafter. No cig issues, as
skies will gradually clear.

Weber

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Amarillo TX                60  30  60  34 /   0   0   0   0
Beaver OK                  61  27  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Boise City OK              63  25  60  31 /   0   0   0   0
Borger TX                  63  29  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Boys Ranch TX              61  26  60  29 /   0   0   0   0
Canyon TX                  60  29  60  33 /   0   0   0   0
Clarendon TX               60  35  61  34 /   0   0   0   0
Dalhart TX                 59  24  58  27 /   0   0   0   0
Guymon OK                  62  25  61  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hereford TX                63  29  61  32 /   0   0   0   0
Lipscomb TX                60  29  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Pampa TX                   60  30  59  35 /   0   0   0   0
Shamrock TX                61  32  62  33 /   0   0   0   0
Wellington TX              63  33  62  33 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.AMA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
OK...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...52
LONG TERM....98
AVIATION...89

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Amarillo TX
300 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

OKZ001>003-TXZ001>020-317-042100-
Cimarron-Texas-Beaver-Dallam-Sherman-Hansford-Ochiltree-Lipscomb-
Hartley-Moore-Hutchinson-Roberts-Hemphill-Oldham-Potter-Carson-
Gray-Wheeler-Deaf Smith-Randall-Armstrong-Donley-Collingsworth-
Palo Duro Canyon-
300 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Texas and Oklahoma
Panhandles.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.