Damaging Wind and High Wind in Texas, August 8, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
640 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

A surface boundary stretching from Denver City to near Silverton has
remained stationary through much of the morning and early afternoon.
Some CU developed along this boundary as well as a northward
migrating outflow boundary along the edge of the Caprock, but this
CU has since dissipated due to lack of upper level lift and
convective inhibition. Convection has started developing across the
higher terrain of New Mexico as a weak shortwave moves across the
region. Coverage should increase through the afternoon with storms
pushing eastward towards the Texas/New Mexico state line by the late
afternoon/early evening. Convection at least make it into our far
western zones around 00Z and possibly make it towards the I27/US87
corridor before midnight. Coverage will be spotty at best. One
limiting factor will be downsloping winds which will likely keep
bases elevated. This will lead to strong wind gusts being possible
in any storm that develops.

Any remaining showers or thunderstorms should begin to dissipate
by/shortly after midnight with, at most, a shower or two remaining
across the Rolling Plains by sunrise. Tomorrow will be fairly quiet
but warm as surface winds remain out of the west to southwest ahead
of an approaching cold front. Lower dewpoints along with no real
discernible upper shortwave should keep precip chances at bay.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 158 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

A southward-advancing cold front will have cleared the CWA by
Wednesday evening, with PoPs being displaced southeast of the
Rolling Plains. Weak CAA will follow the front as the shortwave
trough responsible for sending the cold front through the region
ejects eastward, with a 1008 mb surface anticyclone building into
the High Plains as winds veer eastward. Temperatures on Thursday
morning will be 3-5 deg F cooler than prior mornings, with locales
across the extreme southwestern TX PH and northwestern South Plains
experiencing the coolest temperatures (e.g., middle 60s). The
westward advection of mid-level cloud debris associated with the
return of the monsoon over the Desert Southwest should prevent
cooler temperatures from being realized, particularly across the
aforementioned zones.

Subtropical ridging is forecast to continue expanding westward from
the Gulf of Mexico and into the region on Thursday. This will
prevent any form of cyclonic wave breaking with the progressive wave
train translating northward into Canada. Meanwhile, the remnants of
a previous tropical cyclone in the northeastern Pacific Ocean (T.S.
Eugene) are forecast to evolve into a cutoff/barotropic low off of
the coast of California, and global NWP guidance continues to handle
this scenario quite well. The net result of these two larger-scale
synoptic features will facilitate the return of the monsoon across
the southern Rocky Mountains, with the CWA positioned beneath weak,
west-southwesterly steering flow. The presence of westerly flow in
the mid- and high-levels will advect an elevated mixed layer
eastward over the CWA, with large, tall CAPE profiles atop the
weakly capped airmass. Isolated-to-widely-scattered thunderstorms
should develop in the vicinity of the TX/NM state line late Thursday
afternoon and evening, with convective movement governed by
propagation due to the weak steering flow. Multi-cellular clusters
will be the primary storm mode, with Inverted-V profiles supporting
the potential for strong wind gusts. Thunderstorms should decay as
the boundary-layer stabilizes upon the cessation of vertical mixing
and loss of diabatic heating, and as surface flow steadily veers as
the lee cyclone north of the CWA rotates eastward.

Considerable agreement exists among the global NWP guidance spectra
with the positioning of the monsoonal fetch heading into the
weekend, with the core of the plume advecting poleward over most of
Chihuahua and into the State of New Mexico. The cutoff low near the
California coast is forecast to linger into the weekend, which will
further supplement the poleward advection of tropical moisture from
the northeastern Pacific Ocean. The longitudinal-elongation of the
adjacent subtropical ridge to the east of the monsoonal plume should
also keep geopotential height tendencies nearly neutral, at or
around 594 dam, over the CWA while the steering flow backs slightly
to the southwest. Renewed chances for monsoonal thunderstorms,
particularly across the South Plains, are forecast for Friday
afternoon and this weekend. PoPs generated by the NBM were adjusted
to reflect this thinking, and those east of the edge of the Caprock
Escarpment will have lesser chances compared to those to the west
and closer to the monsoonal fetch. Temperatures will also trend
downward a couple of degrees by the latter part of the weekend and
into early next week, though it will still be hot. A drying trend
may follow during this time as the subtropical ridge expands to the
northwest which would ultimately shift the position of the monsoon.

Sincavage

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 619 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Currently, satellite and radar imagery show thunderstorm
development across the CWA as convection to the west of the TX/NM
state line track eastward. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms
could impact any of the terminals this evening, however
uncertainty remains on the extent of coverage. Where thunderstorms
develop, periods of heavy rainfall could reduce visibility with
gusty winds up to 60 mph possible. Storms are expected to end
after midnight tonight. Tomorrow morning winds will be breezy and
out of the west. Check density altitude.

&&

.LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...51
LONG TERM....09
AVIATION...12

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Lubbock TX
151 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

TXZ021>044-091900-
Parmer-Castro-Swisher-Briscoe-Hall-Childress-Bailey-Lamb-Hale-Floyd-
Motley-Cottle-Cochran-Hockley-Lubbock-Crosby-Dickens-King-Yoakum-
Terry-Lynn-Garza-Kent-Stonewall-
151 PM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the South Plains, Rolling
Plains, and the far Southern Texas Panhandle.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Isolated thunderstorms will be possible from late this afternoon
through the evening across the entire region. Some storms may be
capable of producing wind gusts up to 60 mph.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Chances for monsoonal thunderstorms are forecast to return to most
of the Caprock and portions of the Rolling Plains from late Friday
through the weekend.