Wildfire in Texas, August 8 to 13, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
603 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

...New AVIATION(12Z TAFS)...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

The heat will continue through the short term forecast with no
relief in site. Yes, that may sound bleak, but it's the truth. 500mb
ridging remains firmly in control across South Central Texas with
heat headlines across the entire CWA on Tuesday. These headlines
will no doubt be extended to include Wednesday as well, but we'll
let the dayshift make a call on who the lucky counties are that get
another Excessive Heat Warning. Despite the hot and dry conditions,
the seabreeze will bring dewpoints back into the 70s this morning
and again tonight, as gulf moisture moves inland in the form of low
clouds and stratus. That's about all we'll get out of it, other than
the breezy southeasterly surface winds in the overnight hours. Heat
indices are expected to range from 108-112 with ambient air
temperatures climbing into the 103 to 110 range. Please limit your
time outdoors and practice fire prevention as well, as a Red Flag
Warning is once again in effect for much of the region as dry fuels
and breezy conditions result in erratic fire behavior resistant to
control.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Mid-level high pressure to the east shifts more westward Thursday
into the weekend bringing continued hot temperatures, drier
conditions, and elevated to critical fire weather conditions. Gusty
wind is expected Wednesday night and again Thursday night with gusts
from 25- 35 mph possible at times, creating continued high fire
danger across all of South-Central Texas. With high pressure overhead
Friday into the weekend, a slight decrease in these gusty winds is
possible, although still expect typical summertime breezy winds,
especially during the evening. Would expect elevated to areas of
critical fire weather conditions to continue late week into the
weekend with headlines likely each day.

As for temperatures, highs will continue to stay from around 99-110
degrees across the area each day, possibly lowering a degree or two
late weekend into early next week. This will lead to heat headlines
continuing through the extended forecast. There does look to be a
small chance the seabreeze makes it to our far southeastern counties
in the Coastal Plains by Monday or Tuesday afternoon, but chances
are still low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 601 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Very few changes from the going forecast. MVFR ceilings are iffy at
AUS at this time, but should rapidly develop at SAT and SSF shortly.
Expect a stratus layer around 1200 feet to develop quickly and linger
through about 14Z before dissipating. Expect VFR ceilings by the
afternoon with breezy south/southeasterly winds through the day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Breezy south-southwesterly winds of 10-15 mph with higher gusts up
to 20-25 mph will continue through midday, before shifting to more
of a south-southeasterly direction by mid afternoon. A Red Flag
Warning will remain in effect for all but the Coastal Plains
counties today as RH values fall to less than 30% region-wide. A
Fire Danger Statement will be in play for Frio, Atascosa, Karnes,
DeWitt, and Lavaca counties on Tuesday. Residents across all of
South-Central Texas are urged to exercise extra care with any
outdoor activities that could inadvertently ignite a wildfire.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

Record High Temperatures

                    8/9  8/10  8/11  8/12  8/13
Austin Camp Mabry   106  107   105   106   107
Austin Bergstrom    106  107   105   104   103
Del Rio             108  107   106   107   108
San Antonio         106  105   106   104   106

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry             107  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport 104  78 105  78 /   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport    105  78 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport           105  77 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport          108  81 108  81 /   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport       105  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport            105  75 105  76 /   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport       105  77 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional  103  80 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
San Antonio Intl Airport      105  78 105  79 /   0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport          106  78 106  79 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
Atascosa-Bastrop-Bexar-Burnet-Caldwell-Comal-De Witt-Fayette-Frio-
Gonzales-Guadalupe-Hays-Karnes-Lavaca-Lee-Llano-Medina-Travis-
Uvalde-Williamson-Wilson.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for Bandera-
Blanco-Dimmit-Edwards-Gillespie-Kendall-Kerr-Kinney-Maverick-Real-
Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

Short-Term...MMM
Long-Term...27
Aviation...MMM

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
256 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-090800-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
256 AM CDT Tue Aug 8 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

A Heat Advisory is in effect from Noon today to 9PM this evening
for the Hill Country, Southern Edwards Plateau, and the Rio Grande
Plains, while an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect for the
remainder of South Central Texas. There remains a high risk for
heat related illnesses for those spending extended time outdoors
and not taking proper precautions.

Increased fire danger will continue across South Central Texas
today. Drought cured fuels, hot temperatures, low humidity and
occasionally breezy winds in the evening may combine to produce
fires that spread rapidly and exhibit high resistance to control.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Dangerously hot temperatures and heat index values are expected
each afternoon into early evening across South Central Texas
through the upcoming week. Excessive Heat Warnings or Heat
Advisories will be needed for at least portions of South Central
Texas through the upcoming week. There remains a high risk for
heat related illnesses for those spending extended time outdoors
and not taking proper precautions.

Increased fire danger will continue across South Central Texas
through the upcoming week. Additional Red Flag Warnings are
expected this week. Winds are expected to peak in speed Tuesday
through Thursday, likely leading to more widespread critical
conditions. Drought cured fuels, hot temperatures, low humidity
and occasionally breezy winds in the afternoon and evening may
combine to produce fires that spread rapidly and exhibit high
resistance to control.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.