Excessive Heat in Texas, August 11 to 12, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
623 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Isolated thunderstorms continue early this morning but are slowly
shifting eastward and out of our CWA. The storms east of OKC were
likely a result of mid-level warm advection above mixed layer. At
least isolated storms will continue to be possible through the
post-sunrise morning, but trends suggest they will be east of our
CWA>may be shifted mainly east of our CWA. A few showers will be
possible across northwest parts of Oklahoma early this morning
and also over a small portion of western north Texas.

Additional convection is possible this afternoon and evening as
warm front lifts north. Like last evening and this mornings
activity, models are struggling with convection timing and
placement. Most models have storms later today, but they disagree
on timing/location/duration. Some have most of the activity across
the I-44 corridor (mainly suite of GFS) while most others have
convection farther north across northern Oklahoma into southern
Kansas. We will focus more on/north of the warm front and have
highest PoPs across northern parts of Oklahoma. Diffuse dryline
across western Oklahoma will have to be watched later today as
well. A few severe storms appear possible wherever they develop,
but most likely scenario would be across western into northern
Oklahoma late this afternoon through the evening.

Speaking of the warm front, in the wake of the front, hotter
temperatures will spread northward today. High dewpoints should
remain across mainly eastern and far northern portions of the
forecast area, with less humid air pushing in from the southwest
across north Texas and western Oklahoma. Lower RH, near record
temperatures, and gusty southerly winds (not to mention cured
fuels) will elevate the fire weather conditions across portions of
western north Texas. A Red Flag Warning will be issued for this
afternoon.

Given forecast heat indices and WBGT, we will also be expanding
the heat advisory and excessive heat warnings for today.
Additional heat headlines will be likely for Saturday and even
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Thursday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Storm chances increase late Saturday with potential for storms
moving in from the higher terrain, and increase even more late
Sunday with strong cold front still progd to push southward over the
region. Best chances for appreciable rainfall will be over the
northern third or so of Oklahoma. Some severe weather, primarily
in the form of damaging winds, can be expected.

Much cooler weather expected for Monday and Tuesday, before an
increase in temperatures for mid week. Another high amplitude
trough is forecast to progress over the northern Plains by late
week, hopefully shoving another cold front toward Oklahoma and
northern Texas to end the week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 618 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 202

A few showers and perhaps a thunderstorm may skirt far northern
Oklahoma this morning, otherwise VFR conditions are expected.
Currently, the wind is relatively light, but will become gusty
during the morning as mixing occurs. Thunderstorms may develop
across the Texas Panhandle this afternoon and move into western
Oklahoma this evening. Additional storms may move across mainly
north central Oklahoma late this evening and overnight. Overall,
VFR conditions are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK  99  76  99  76 /  10  20  30  20
Hobart OK        107  77 106  75 /  20  20  20  10
Wichita Falls TX 109  81 109  80 /  10  10  10  10
Gage OK          102  71  96  69 /  20  20  30  40
Ponca City OK     98  74  94  73 /  10  40  40  50
Durant OK        101  79 103  79 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ006>008-011>013-015>018-021-022.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ019-020-023>048-050>052.

TX...Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ083>090.

     Red Flag Warning from noon today to 9 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....11
AVIATION...06

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Norman OK
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-121330-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
816 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

.Thunderstorms...
Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected over western and
north Oklahoma...with isolated thunderstorms also possible over
western north Texas. A few storms may be capable of producing damaging
wind gusts and hail.

.Dangerous Heat...
Excessive heat and humidity is expected over most of Oklahoma and
western north Texas. Heat index values of 105 to 115 degrees are
expected.

.Fire Weather...
Elevated fire weather will combine with very fire prone fuels to
result in the potential for problematic fire spread and behavior
today in western north Texas. The chance of new fires is enhanced
due to lightning that occurred with last night's storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday...

.Thunderstorms...
Chances for thunderstorms will continue through the weekend. A
few strong to severe storms will be possible each day, however
widespread severe weather is not expected.

.Dangerous Heat...
Excessive heat and humidity spread northward over much of Oklahoma
and north Texas from Friday through the upcoming weekend.

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