Excessive Heat and Heat in Texas, August 11 to 15, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
607 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Key Messages:

- Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings in effect for today
  and likely needed again for Saturday.

- Elevated Fire Weather conditions are expected this afternoon and
  evening.

It seems as though we are just copying our forecast discussions at
this point with hot and rain-free conditions persisting for this
long. The persistent high pressure ridge will continue to dominate
our forecast, so we expect today's forecast to be generally the
same as yesterday's and tomorrow's. Heat index values are expected
to range from 110 to 120 across South Texas with the exception of
the northern barrier islands.

Breezy conditions will occur once again today and Saturday which,
when combined with Relative Humidity values ranging from 20% to
35% and dry to critically dry fuels will lead to Elevated Fire
Weather conditions. An RFD is in effect for today from 1 PM to 8
PM; however, if winds increase a bit more than expected, it is
possible that conditions could warrant a Red Flag Warning.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Key Messages:

- Dangerous heat continues next week

- Elevated to Critical fire weather conditions remain possible
through Sunday over portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country

Expecting persistence for the long-term period as a strong mid-level
high meanders over the Southern Plains then retrogrades towards the
Desert Southwest around mid-week. A few mid-level disturbances will
try to squeeze out some moisture for us around mid-week but have
kept PoP's ~20% or less despite PWAT's approaching ~2.0" according
to the GEF's mean,  as the mid to upper levels of the atmosphere
remain dry and is unlikely the CAP will be overcome due to a lack of
lifting mechanisms.

Afternoon air temperatures will hover in the 90-110 degree range
across the region with overnight lows in the 75-80 degree range.
Dangerous heat index values are expected to continue each day with
much of the region in WPC's 40-70% chance of maximum heat indices of
115+.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 539 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

If you don't mind the ongoing heat and breezy south to southeast
winds, it looks like a nice day for flying. Occasional MVFR
ceilings east of 287 are possible through around 14Z this morning
and again Saturday morning, otherwise, VFR conditions will prevail
through the TAF period. Winds could gust to near 30 knots across
South Texas today.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Moderate to strong winds over the bays and nearshore waters south
of Port Aransas are expected again today. Otherwise, expect weak
to moderate onshore flow through next week. Periods of Small Craft
Advisory conditions are possible early in the week. Some isolated
showers and thunderstorms will be possible most days over the
waters.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi   100  82 100  81 /   0   0   0   0
Victoria         101  81 101  78 /   0   0  10  10
Laredo           109  81 108  80 /   0   0   0   0
Alice            104  79 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
Rockport          94  83  92  82 /   0  10  10  10
Cotulla          109  80 108  80 /   0   0   0   0
Kingsville       103  81 103  80 /   0   0   0   0
Navy Corpus       95  84  95  83 /   0  10   0  10

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ229>234-239-240-245>247-342>344-346-347.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for TXZ241>244.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
     evening for GMZ231-232-250.

&&

SHORT TERM...LS
LONG TERM....BF
AVIATION...LS/77