Heat in Texas, August 1 to 5, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Norman OK
544 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

The upper level ridge continues it's gradual shift eastward,
leading to another dry day with another slight increase in
temperatures. A similar heat advisory has been issued for portions
of northern, central, and southern Oklahoma, as well as a few
counties in western north Texas. Forecasted temperatures and heat
indices have increased to where 110+ heat indexes are possible in
southeastern Oklahoma, and an excessive heat warning has been
issued for the region.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 417 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

No major changes to the forecast, as the upper level ridge continues
to be the main dominant feature through early Saturday. Triple digit
high temperatures are expected to continue, with likely heat indexes
reaching levels requiring heat advisories across portions of
Oklahoma and western north Texas. While the higher dewpoints will be
mainly in a corridor through central Oklahoma and portions of
western north Texas, fire weather concerns will increase in
southwestern Oklahoma and portions of western north Texas, with
dewpoints in the upper 50s/lower 60s that would result in afternoon
RH values in the 10s and 20s.

Continuing to expect the upper level ridge to become less amplified
through the week and into the weekend. Precipitation chances return
Thursday and Friday across northern parts of Oklahoma, and chances
become more widespread Saturday into Sunday with the movement of the
upper level trough through the Central Plains. A cold front is
expected to move through with this trough and associated surface low
pressure cyclone, which will bring a marked decrease in temperatures
through early next week.

Zwink

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 541 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

VFR will apply through the forecast period. South winds will
increase late this morning into this afternoon, with gusts near 15
to 20 kt. A decrease in wind speeds, for most terminals, will then
arrive around sunset. A few high clouds will pass overhead.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Oklahoma City OK 102  80 103  81 /   0   0   0   0
Hobart OK        106  77 106  78 /   0   0   0   0
Wichita Falls TX 108  80 108  80 /   0   0   0   0
Gage OK          102  76 103  74 /   0   0   0   0
Ponca City OK    103  79 104  78 /   0   0   0   0
Durant OK        103  78 104  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     OKZ005>008-011>013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>047.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ005>008-
     011>013-018>020-024>032-039>043-045>048-050>052.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for OKZ033>038-044.

     Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
     for OKZ048-050>052.

TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
     TXZ086-089-090.

     Heat Advisory from noon to 9 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ086-089-090.

     Fire Weather Watch from Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
     evening for TXZ083>090.

&&

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....50
AVIATION...03

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Norman OK
452 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

OKZ004>048-050>052-TXZ083>090-021000-
Harper-Woods-Alfalfa-Grant-Kay-Ellis-Woodward-Major-Garfield-
Noble-Roger Mills-Dewey-Custer-Blaine-Kingfisher-Logan-Payne-
Beckham-Washita-Caddo-Canadian-Oklahoma-Lincoln-Grady-McClain-
Cleveland-Pottawatomie-Seminole-Hughes-Harmon-Greer-Kiowa-Jackson-
Tillman-Comanche-Stephens-Garvin-Murray-Pontotoc-Coal-Cotton-
Jefferson-Carter-Johnston-Atoka-Love-Marshall-Bryan-Hardeman-
Foard-Wilbarger-Wichita-Knox-Baylor-Archer-Clay-
452 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of northern...
western...central...and southern Oklahoma...and western north
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

.Heat...
Triple digit heat indices will continue Tuesday morning and
afternoon until sundown as a Heat Advisory remains in effect
portions of central and southern Oklahoma, as well as portions of
western north Texas with heat indices up to 105 degrees. An
excessive heat warning has been issued for southeastern Oklahoma
due to heat indices above 110 degrees possible.

.Fire Weather...
Recent dryness and hot temperatures will lead to elevated fire
weather conditions across far southwest Oklahoma and western-north
Texas this afternoon.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday...

Triple digit heat indices will persist Wednesday through Friday
with some relief on Saturday but only across northern and possibly
into central Oklahoma. Dangerous heating will be the strongest on
Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons with heat indices between
105-110 degrees and possibly a couple degrees higher in some
counties.

.Thunderstorms...
Thunderstorms will be possible Thursday through Saturday nights
across northwest Oklahoma, with very low chances on Saturday
including central through southeast Oklahoma.

.Fire Weather...
Continued hot afternoon and evening temperatures, combined with
dry conditions, will lead to elevated fire weather concern on
Tuesday and Wednesday across southwest Oklahoma and western-north
Texas.

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