El Paso County went to Severe(D2) drought on August 1st after a dry start to the Monsoon Season.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS EPZ wrote it up.
El Paso County went to Severe(D2) drought on August 1st after a dry start to the Monsoon Season.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS El Paso, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:00 PM MST, 1 hour earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM 1200 AM MDT Tue Aug 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Scattered mountain and isolated lowland storms will be possible much of the period with the highest chances for storms this afternoon and tomorrow. Chances gradually decrease after that. Highs will also gradually climb each afternoon. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 We have a monsoonal pattern, but it's not turning out too robust. The UL high that has plagued us with heat is centered over far SW OK, but it remains rather large. Additionally, we have a subtle inverted trough nearing the International Border as of 2PM. Moisture is a bit lacking but sufficient at about 1 inch PW. The main thing is the lack of heating from earlier cloud coverage and light showers is hurting instability. So far, shower and thunderstorm activity is mainly limited to mountains. We will retain shower and thunderstorm chances through the rest of the afternoon and into the overnight hours and even to a lesser degree the morning. Then, tomorrow, moisture will remain similar but with a couple / few degrees of warming. We will have a bit more of an influence from the ridge as it begins to nose back west plus we will not have the inverted trough. The net result will be another day of scattered mountain storms with isolated storms possible in the lowlands. Interestingly enough, the 18z HRRR shows us more active tomorrow than today, which makes sense from the increase in heat. We repeat this pattern again Wednesday but with a bit of a decrease in moisture and subsequent storm chances/ coverage. Temperatures will also rise a couple more degrees. The high will be slow to expand and shift west as we progress through the week. This will cause a continual but gradual decline in moisture and precip chances and an increase in our temperatures. By this weekend, the high will basically be overhead, which will bring us our hottest temperatures and lowest precip chances. Storm coverage will be largely limited to the mountains although the GFS is a bit more aggressive in bringing a few storms into the lowlands. Either way, our best three days to get any rain in the lowlands is today through Wednesday. After that, we return to the misery that has been Nonsoon 2023. 53 days until fall. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1156 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 The evening convection is winding down. KTCS still has some VCSH to contend with and there are still some outflow boundaries moving around, but the trend is more toward less activity. More thunderstorms are expected on Tuesday, with likely better coverage iin the Rio Grande valley. Like today, storm motion will be south to north. Outside of storms they main threats will be strong outflow winds, which can move off for a long distance from the parent thunderstorm. Near the thunderstorms we could see some brief MVFR ceilings and maybe even some MVFR visibilities. Like today, the thunderstorms will slow down toward midnight. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 PM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Moisture has increased for the entire area, which has led to an uptick in thunderstorms, mainly in the mountains. It also has led to an improvement in RH recoveries as well as minimum RH values in the lowlands. Tuesday's min RH values will be around 20 percent. With the increase in moisture, we will see scattered storms in the mountains with isolated storms in the lowlands. We will see a gradual decrease in moisture though along with a gradual decrease in thunderstorm coverage / chances. Temperatures will also rise each afternoon. By this weekend, storms will mainly be limited to mountains. Winds will be fairly light outside of storms, topping out around 10 MPH. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... El Paso 77 101 78 103 / 30 20 30 20 Sierra Blanca 68 93 69 93 / 20 50 30 30 Las Cruces 73 101 74 102 / 30 10 30 20 Alamogordo 71 97 71 99 / 20 30 20 30 Cloudcroft 53 73 54 74 / 30 70 30 60 Truth or Consequences 71 97 72 98 / 20 30 20 30 Silver City 64 90 66 91 / 40 30 20 40 Deming 70 99 71 101 / 30 10 20 20 Lordsburg 67 96 69 98 / 40 20 20 30 West El Paso Metro 77 99 77 101 / 30 20 30 20 Dell City 72 98 71 99 / 20 40 20 20 Fort Hancock 73 101 72 103 / 30 40 30 30 Loma Linda 70 92 70 93 / 20 30 30 40 Fabens 73 98 74 100 / 30 20 30 20 Santa Teresa 73 98 74 99 / 30 20 30 20 White Sands HQ 76 98 75 100 / 30 30 30 30 Jornada Range 71 97 71 99 / 30 20 30 20 Hatch 70 99 70 101 / 30 20 20 20 Columbus 72 98 74 100 / 30 20 30 20 Orogrande 71 96 69 97 / 20 30 30 30 Mayhill 59 84 57 85 / 30 70 30 60 Mescalero 57 84 56 85 / 30 70 30 50 Timberon 55 83 55 83 / 20 60 30 60 Winston 60 86 59 86 / 30 50 20 50 Hillsboro 66 96 67 97 / 30 30 20 40 Spaceport 68 97 69 98 / 30 20 20 20 Lake Roberts 57 88 59 90 / 40 40 20 40 Hurley 65 95 65 96 / 40 30 20 30 Cliff 57 98 59 100 / 40 30 20 30 Mule Creek 63 91 66 93 / 50 30 20 30 Faywood 68 94 68 96 / 30 30 20 30 Animas 67 96 70 99 / 40 20 20 30 Hachita 67 96 70 98 / 40 20 20 30 Antelope Wells 66 95 69 98 / 40 30 30 40 Cloverdale 65 91 67 93 / 40 20 20 40 && .EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. NM...None. && FORECASTER...15-Brice
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM 1158 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 NMZ401>417-TXZ418>424-011800- Upper Gila River Valley-Southern Gila Highlands/Black Range- Southern Gila Foothills/Mimbres Valley- Southwest Desert/Lower Gila River Valley-Lowlands of the Bootheel- Uplands of the Bootheel-Southwest Desert/Mimbres Basin- Eastern Black Range Foothills-Sierra County Lakes- Northern Dona Ana County-Southern Dona Ana County/Mesilla Valley- Central Tularosa Basin-Southern Tularosa Basin- West Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet- Sacramento Mountains Above 7500 Feet- East Slopes Sacramento Mountains Below 7500 Feet-Otero Mesa- Western El Paso County-Eastern/Central El Paso County- Northern Hudspeth Highlands/Hueco Mountains-Salt Basin- Southern Hudspeth Highlands- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern El Paso/Western Hudspeth Counties- Rio Grande Valley of Eastern Hudspeth County- 1158 AM MDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of south central New Mexico, southwest New Mexico, and southwest Texas. .DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight Scattered to numerous storms at times this afternoon and evening as we have monsoonal flow for a few days. Frequent lightning and localized downpours will be possible with storms that do form. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Monday through Wednesday will have scattered to numerous storms at times as we have monsoonal flow for a few days. Lightning, brief downpours, and gusting winds can be expected. Localized flooding is possible with storm rates likely to be 0.5-1" an hour. Thursday through the weekend will see well above normal temperatures return through the weekend. Heat advisories may need to be issued for our lowland areas. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
The entire zone went from Moderate to Severe(D2) drought on August 1st.
The entire zone went from Moderate(D1) drought to Severe(D2) drought on August 1st. The El Paso Airport received just 0.30 inches of precipitation which was 1.28 inches below normal.
The zone started out in Moderate(D1) drought but the western half of the zone was placed in Severe(D2) drought on August 1st and the remainder of the area on August 22nd.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1135002, 1135005, 1135010.