Drought in Texas, August 1 to 31, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1215 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 328 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

The end of July and beginning of August is highlighted with
increased heat and fire weather concerns.

A large upper high is centered over the Red River Valley, and will
remain in place through Tuesday. With associated subsidence,
generally clear skies will continue for our area. With the uptick in
temperatures, an Excessive Heat Warning is in effect today until 8
PM across our eastern border counties from Throckmorton south to San
Saba. A Heat Advisory is in effect for the rest of the Big Country,
much of the Concho Valley, and Northwest Hill Country.

With temperatures expected to be a degree or two higher on Tuesday,
an Excessive Heat Warning has been issued for Tuesday (from Noon to
8 PM) for all of the Big Country, most of the Concho Valley, the
Heartland (our east-central) counties, and Northwest Hill Country. A
Heat Advisory has been issued (for that same time frame) for the
Northern Edwards Plateau and Irion County.

Fire weather concerns are on the increase with a combination of hot
and dry conditions and vegetation continuing to cure. The primary
time frame of concern is during the afternoon and early evening
hours, when south to southeast winds will be somewhat gusty with
gusts over 25 mph possible.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through next Sunday)
Issued at 153 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

Hot and dry weather with above normal temperatures will continue
to be the main issue, as upper level high pressure dominates. The
upper high will remain centered over Texas through the end of the
weak, with high shifting westward by the weekend. Daytime highs
will range between 101 and 106 degrees through much of the
period. Thus, Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat warnings be
needed this week. In addition to the heat, there will be an
increase in fire weather conditions this week, as breezy south
winds develop during the afternoon hours, along with very dry
vegetation and low relative humidities.

Model differences continue late this weekend into early next
week, with the GFS still showing the upper high shifting well
west of the area Sunday night into Monday, with a possible cold
front and rain chances over the area. The ECMWF is not as
aggressive and keeps the front and precipitation farther north.
For now, will maintain low POPs mainly across the Big Country
Sunday night and into portions of the Concho Valley and Heartland
counties for Monday. Temperatures are also a little cooler for
Monday, with highs ranging from near 100 degrees across the Big
Country, to around 104 across southern sections.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023

VFR conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Winds will
primarily be shifting between the south and southeast. Winds are
expected to become gusty from the southeast again this afternoon,
before weakening in the evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene    105  78 103  77 /   0   0   0   0
San Angelo 106  76 103  76 /   0   0   0   0
Junction   105  73 103  73 /   0   0   0   0
Brownwood  104  76 104  75 /  10   0   0   0
Sweetwater 106  79 104  77 /   0   0   0   0
Ozona      102  74 100  74 /   0   0   0   0
Brady      105  75 102  74 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Excessive Heat Warning from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening
for Brown-Callahan-Coke-Coleman-Concho-Fisher-Haskell-Jones-
Kimble-Mason-McCulloch-Menard-Nolan-Runnels-San Saba-Shackelford-
Sterling-Taylor-Throckmorton-Tom Green.

Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for
Crockett-Irion-Schleicher-Sutton.

&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...AP

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
253 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-012000-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
253 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Hot and dry conditions will continue across West Central Texas
this afternoon, increasing the chance for heat related illnesses.
A Heat Advisory and Excessive Heat Warning will remain in effect
until 8 PM this evening. In addition, breezy conditions this
afternoon may add to the elevated fire weather conditions across
much of the area through early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Hot and dry conditions will continue through the upcoming week,
with the potential for heat-related illnesses. An Excessive Heat
Warning has been issued for Tuesday, generally north and east of
a Sterling City to Junction line, with a Heat Advisory in affect
across the remaining southwest counties. Additional Heat
Advisories and Excessive Heat Warnings will likely be needed
for the remainder of the week.

Fire weather concerns will be on the increase this week. Above
normal temperatures, combined with low relative humidities,
dry vegetation and occasionally gusty winds will result in
elevated to critical fire weather conditions through at least
Friday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated at this time.