Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to persist since its initial development on July 25th across all of Zapata County and the western half of Jim Hogg and Starr Counties.
Every event with a place to put it; 3 filed by county or forecast zone are drawn at its center, in a lighter ring. Tap one for its entry below.
Deaths and injuries are direct and indirect together, as the offices filed them. Damage is property and crops in the dollars of the year, not adjusted for inflation, and only where an office estimated it.
The episode as NWS BRO wrote it up.
Lack of persistent rain, dry to very dry conditions and very hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to persist since its initial development on July 25th across all of Zapata County and the western half of Jim Hogg and Starr Counties.
The local office's own words before the first event, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Brownsville, TX wrote its last area forecast discussion before the first event at Jul 31, 11:28 PM CST, 32 minutes earlier.
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1228 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Tuesday night) Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Hot and humid conditions are the main story for the short term forecast. Mid-level ridge is currently placed over North Central Texas leading to very little rain chances over Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley. However a stray shower or thunderstorm is still possible. As such, the main focus of the short term forecast will be on the heat. High temperatures for today and tomorrow are going to be in the triple digits for most of the CWA, but locations along the coast might stay in the upper 90s. Right now there is an SPS in effect for the high heat indices that are expected through this afternoon and early evening. Already seeing some observations indicate that Brownsville and Harlingen have heat indices of 110 degrees already. Make sure to limit time outside, find some shade, and drink plenty of water while outside. Tomorrow seems to be very much a repeat of today in which the heat will be the biggest story. As for tonight, temperatures are going to be in the range of upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Monday) Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Broad mid-level ridging anchored over the Southern High Plains and Texas will remain the main actor for deep South Texas in the long term, supporting high pressure at the surface. The ridge eventually splits east and west late in the period as a mid- level trough dives across the Plains. One consequence will be that slightly above average temperatures should continue. The southern half of the Gulf of Mexico, and especially the Southwest Gulf, will remain a cauldron of tropical convection, with some days more active than others, but generally sending showers west and northwest toward the northeast Mexican coastline and to some extent also toward the lower Texas Coast. A weak, inverted mid-level trough will slide west under the main ridge and move across deep South Texas Wednesday through Thursday. Though the signal is weak, there could local enhancement of convection on Wednesday through Thursday, though typically not raising pops significantly above the isolated category over land areas. Another batch of moisture will move north from the Southwest Gulf on Saturday, enhancing coastal shower activity that day, Most days in the long term will start out mostly sunny to sunny but will become partly cloudy with afternoon cloud development. Daily sea breezes will be possible, though rain chances will generally remain in the isolated category with low QPF amounts. Hazards will be muted, though certain hazards may develop from time to time. Right now, it looks like rip current risk will be low through the period due to low to moderate wave heights. Fire weather fuels are drying, slowly increasing the threat of wildfire growth and spread. Meeting fire danger statement criteria will be slightly more certain, though still borderline, late in the week and into the weekend when 20 ft winds will be slightly stronger due to a tighter pressure gradient between Gulf high pressure and inland lower pressure. There is a subtle pattern in the grids late each afternoon when 20 ft winds increase near the coast and surge west. This initially looks like a sea breeze, but the signal is broader than that. Finally, meeting heat advisory criteria will be borderline almost every afternoon when using the "consall" blend for dew points, but heat index values will still generally range between 105 and 110 degrees. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 AM CDT Tue Aug 1 2023 Good flying conditions tonight and Tuesday with VFR conditions persisting. Light south to southeasterly winds are expected overnight becoming moderate and occasionally breezy (gusts 18-24kts) Tuesday afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 121 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 Tonight through Tuesday Night...Favorable conditions tonight through Tuesday night. A weak pressure gradient will result in light winds and low wave heights. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible mainly over the Gulf waters late tonight and into tomorrow. Wednesday through Saturday night...Mainly moderate southeast winds will prevail, becoming fresh at times during the afternoons on the Laguna Madre, and pushing conditions into small craft should exercise caution territory. Low to moderate seas will prevail. Persistent mid-level ridging and surface high pressure will support anti- cyclonic flow over the Northwest Gulf, a mostly stable pattern, though isolated marine showers and thunderstorms could pop up at times. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 79 96 81 97 / 10 30 10 20 HARLINGEN 75 98 77 99 / 0 30 0 20 MCALLEN 78 100 79 101 / 0 10 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 78 102 78 103 / 0 10 0 0 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 81 89 81 90 / 10 30 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 79 95 79 96 / 10 30 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && SHORT TERM...64-Katz LONG TERM....54-BHM AVIATION...59-GB
Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Brownsville TX 401 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 TXZ248>255-351-353>355-451-454-455-012115- Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo- Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo- Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-Kenedy Island-Willacy Island- Cameron Island- 401 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South Texas. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday Heat Advisory criteria (heat index >= 111 degrees) may develop briefly each afternoon. An elevated risk of rip currents will be possible Friday night at the beaches of South Padre Island and at Boca Chica Beach. An enhanced threat of wildfire growth and spread may occur for portions of the area Thursday through Sunday afternoons. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed. GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-012115- Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado- Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port Mansfield TX- Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm- Gulf waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to 60 nm- Gulf waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to 60 nm- 401 PM CDT Mon Jul 31 2023 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of Mexico and The Laguna Madre. .DAY ONE...Tonight No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday No hazardous weather is expected at this time. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation will not be needed.
The national radar mosaic for the moment the first event began.
3 drought. Local standard time, as filed.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to persist across all of Zapata County.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to persist across western Jim Hogg County. The drought extended from approximately 7 miles west of the Jim Hogg/Webb/Zapata County lines southeast to approximately 11 miles east of the Brooks/Jim Hogg/Starr County lines.
Lack of persistent rain combined with dry to very dry conditions and hot temperatures allowed Severe (D2) Drought to persist across northwestern Starr County. The drought extended from approximately 11 miles east of the Brooks/Jim Hogg/Starr County line south about 7 miles before bending southwest 12 miles just northwest of FM 755 to west-southwest about 5 miles northwest of Roma. It expanded to include all but the northeastern portion of the county on August 8th and expanded further to all of the county with the August 22nd update.
After NWS Directive 10-1605, the rules offices file Storm Data by.
Every storm in Texas in 2023Every state in 2023This day in weather historyWarnings in Texas, August 2023
NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Events Database, compiled from the National Weather Service’s monthly Storm Data. Complete through 2026-06; NCEI adds each month about 75 days after it ends and revises past years a few times a year. Rebuilt 2026-09-24. Each event’s entry at NCEI: 1121532, 1121534, 1121535.