Tornadoes and Flash Flooding in Texas, April 25 to 26, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
709 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...New Aviation, Short Term...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
Update:
A lone storm has successfully developed in Central Texas (south of
our forecast area) this evening and is accompanied by scattered
showers. Expect this activity to gradually spread into our
southern zones within the next hour or two. Large hail remains the
primary hazard, though the one storm has struggled to take
advantage of its environment so far. A few storms have also
developed across West Texas, which may eventually evolve into a
complex of storms that would move into North Texas later tonight.
PoPs were adjusted slightly through the overnight hours tonight to
account for latest trends. Otherwise, the previous forecast
remains unchanged, with a more significant threat for severe
weather expected to unfold across much of North and Central Texas
on Wednesday.

Barnes

Previous Discussion:
/Severe Weather Today and Tomorrow/

A fairly active 36-48 hours lay ahead of us across North and
Central Texas as a shortwave trough approaches. Severe weather
potential will be the highest tomorrow afternoon, but a few severe
storms will remain possible late this afternoon into tonight.

MAIN THREATS

Today (HIGHLY CONDITIONAL THREAT)
-Large Hail
-Damaging Winds
-Low Tornado Threat

TONIGHT
-Large Hail
-Damaging Winds
-Flash Flooding

TOMORROW
-Large to Very Large Hail (2+ in)
-Damaging Winds
-Tornado
-Flash Flooding

------------------------------------------------

A shortwave trough is currently making its way across the Rockies
and will be moving into the Plains late this afternoon and into
this evening. Ahead of the parent trough, a fairly subtle leading
shortwave is moving overhead leading to a few showers and storms
across Oklahoma. A warm front continues to push northward out of
the Texas Hill country, evident by the sharp increase dew points
across Central Texas(61 deg F) compared to far North Texas (45
deg F).

This northward moisture flux, in tandem with a mostly uncapped
environment, will keep the mention of an isolated strong to
severe thunderstorm in the forecast the rest of today. With the
greatest ascent mainly across OK, there is some question as to
whether or not enough lift will be in place to maximize the
available instability today. The latest ACARS soundings continue
to show a weak capping inversion at around 600-700mb, which will
continue to work against widespread thunderstorm development this
afternoon. This trend has also been captured by a the latest CAMS
as most remain storm free for much of the afternoon. Overall, the
placement of the dryline across West Texas may lead to a few
storms on the western periphery of North Texas as we approach
sunset.

The threat tonight then shifts to two distinct areas, the first
of which will be across Central Texas. A strengthening low-level
jet may supply additional moisture/lift for a few showers and
storms to develop across the Brazos Valley. Storms that do form in
association with the low-level warm air advection could pose
mainly a large hail and wind threat. The second area for
convection will be along the warm front in N. Texas which will
likely become stationary tonight. Convection across the Texas
Panhandle and western OK is likely to move from west to east. It's
possible that overnight storms remain just north of the Red
River, but in case they do migrate southward, the main threats
would be large hail and damaging winds. Additionally, given the
stalled boundary, training thunderstorms cannot be ruled out,
thus, the flash flooding threat would quickly increase if multiple
rounds of storms persist in an confined area. Again, the area of
greatest threat tonight will be along the immediate Red River
counties.

Moving into tomorrow, a more widespread severe weather episode is
expected as the parent shortwave currently over the Rockies makes
it closest approach. Deep southerly flow should keep much of
North and Central Texas in the warm sector. Plenty of moisture and
afternoon heating should help provide more than enough
instability for storms to develop rather quickly in the afternoon.
Initial thunderstorm development is likely to be along a N-S
oriented dryline on the western periphery of our region. 0-6km
shear should exceed 50 knots during storm initiation, likely
leading to supercell development capable of large to very large
hail, damaging winds and a few tornadoes. After initiation occurs,
it's possible that the supercellular structures evolve into a
complex of thunderstorms moving from northwest to southeast
through the rest of the afternoon. Confidence in the speed at
which the transition from supercells to an MCS occurs is low at
this time. Depending on the orientation of the MCS, there will
also be a heightened threat for flash flooding where storm
motion/training cells develop. Regardless, much of North and
Central Texas should prepare for the potential for large hail,
damaging winds, and a few tornadoes as we go through tomorrow
afternoon and evening.

The threat will migrate southward tomorrow night as an attendant
cold front moves through the region. North winds are expected in
the wake of the line of storms dropping Wednesday night
temperatures into 50s throughout much of the region.

Hernandez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 318 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023/
/Thursday through Tuesday/

Any lingering precipitation behind the complex of storms Wednesday
night should be quickly exiting the area by Thursday morning as
skies will briefly clear out. Thursday should be a nice day
overall with highs in the lower 70s, but low level moisture never
really gets scoured out behind this system and will begin to
spread northward Thursday night. A compact upstream shortwave will
spread into West Texas on Friday with surface pressure falls
occurring across much of the state along with a cold front racing
southward through the Plains. There remains some uncertainty with
respect to the location of the surface low and front/dryline by
Friday afternoon, but there is some potential for a quick warm
sector intrusion into North Texas, coinciding with increasing
large scale forcing for ascent. This should result in scattered
showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be severe if we do
indeed get a warm sector this far north. We'll continue to monitor
this potential, but for now it looks like at least another quick
shot of rainfall for the region. This system will quickly move
east on Saturday with below normal temperatures expected and
perhaps some lingering light post frontal rain. A quick warmup is
expected on Sunday with highs back near 80 areawide and this trend
will continue into early next week with a generally dry forecast.
The pattern will remain active through the middle part of next
week with additional storm chances mid to late week.

Dunn

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

Showers and storms have developed in Central Texas this evening
and should be in the vicinity of KACT within the next couple of
hours or so. Additional showers and storms have developed across
West Texas, and these could eventually evolve into a cluster of
storms, entering North Texas late tonight. However, there is
still some uncertainty in the timing of VCTS for D10 tonight.
Additionally, these initial storms would be capable of producing
hail, but a more significant threat for severe weather is expected
to unfold on Wednesday.

Late Wednesday afternoon, storms will increase in coverage
(particularly around/after 21Z) and will move southeast through
Wednesday night. The most likely timeframe of terminal impacts
will be 00Z-03Z Thursday for D10 and 05-08Z for KACT. These storms
will be capable of producing very large hail, damaging winds, and
a few tornadoes.

Regarding ceilings... VFR ceilings prevail across North Texas with
MVFR across much of Central Texas and western North Texas. Ceilings
will eventually deteriorate tonight, with IFR expected at all
terminals starting tomorrow morning. SE winds near 10-15 knots
will continue until a cold front brings a north wind shift
towards the end of the extended TAF period late tomorrow evening.

Barnes

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  76  57  74  53 /  50  60  90  20  10
Waco                61  79  59  74  53 /  50  50  90  30   5
Paris               53  69  56  70  50 /  60  60  90  40  10
Denton              53  72  53  71  48 /  60  70  90  20  10
McKinney            54  73  55  72  50 /  60  60  90  20  10
Dallas              58  76  59  73  53 /  50  50  90  20  10
Terrell             56  76  58  74  51 /  40  50  90  30  10
Corsicana           60  78  60  76  54 /  40  50  90  30  10
Temple              61  80  57  76  53 /  50  50  80  30   5
Mineral Wells       57  77  53  74  50 /  50  90  80  20  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
712 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-262330-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
712 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

A few thunderstorms are possible across Central Texas this evening.
Some of these storms could be severe with large hail and damaging
winds.

A threat for storms will continue overnight mainly along the Red
River.

Locally heavy rain may occur late tonight resulting in isolated
flooding, mainly north of Highway 380.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

A severe weather episode is expected across most of North and Central
Texas on Wednesday into Wednesday night. Initial thunderstorms that
develop during the afternoon will have the potential for very large
hail, damaging winds, and some tornadoes. The tornado threat will be
highest near a warm front along the I-20 corridor by late afternoon.

Thunderstorms will congeal into a line by late evening and the threat
for damaging winds will increase as the storms move into Central
Texas.

Another cold front arrives late Friday with scattered thunderstorms
possible along and ahead of the front. Some severe weather will be
possible during this time as well.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is expected on Wednesday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1115 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXZ121-122-260445-
Kaufman TX-Van Zandt TX-
1115 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of eastern Kaufman and
southwestern Van Zandt Counties through 1145 PM CDT...

At 1114 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kemp, or 8 miles southeast of Kaufman, moving east at 20 mph.

HAZARD...Penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Minor damage to outdoor objects is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Terrell, Kaufman, Mabank, Kemp, New Terrell City Lake, Cedar Creek
Reservoir, Elmo, Post Oak Bend City, Oak Ridge, Rand, Whitton, Ola,
Becker, Phalba, Tolosa, Roddy, Wise and Prairieville.

This includes Interstate 20 between mile markers 500 and 515.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3236 9627 3269 9634 3280 9606 3238 9595
TIME...MOT...LOC 0414Z 258DEG 19KT 3249 9620

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.75 IN
MAX WIND GUST...<30 MPH

Sanchez