Hail in Texas, April 25 to 26, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
631 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

A dryline was mixing east across the Permian Basin and Trans-
Pecos areas this afternoon. Out ahead of the dryline, skies were
clearing over western, central and southern parts of our area. An
isolated thunderstorm or two may develop by early this evening,
perhaps somewhere over the western Big Country or northwestern
Concho Valley ahead of where the dryline bulges. With moderate
instability (CAPEs to 2000 J/kg) and sufficient effective shear
ahead of the dryline, have a conditional threat of severe weather
with large to very large hail and damaging winds the main threats.
An isolated tornado threat exists as well. The main time frame of
concern is between 5 PM and 10 PM. An upper low will move from
southwestern Colorado to northeast New Mexico tonight. With the
track of this system, indications are for a cluster of
thunderstorms to move southeast across the Texas Panhandle and
southwestern Oklahoma/Red River vicinity. The cluster of storms
could move into the northern Big Country late tonight into early
Wednesday morning, and carrying higher PoPs in that area.
Otherwise, low cloud coverage will increase/expand northward
overnight, and temperatures will be mild with lows in the upper
50s to lower 60s.

The aforementioned upper low will move southeast across the Texas
Panhandle on Wednesday. Low cloud cover will break up in the late
morning to midday time frame. Dryline will mix east across most
of the Big Country and extend southwest into Crockett County by
late afternoon. A cold front will push south across the Big
Country in the late afternoon and early evening, overtaking the
dryline. Scattered thunderstorms are expected in the warm sector
in the afternoon and early evening, east of the dryline and south
of the approaching cold front. With strong instability and
stronger effective shear, severe storms will be possible. Large to
very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats,
along with an isolated tornado threat. Highs on Wednesday will
range from the mid 70s to near 80 in the Big Country, to the mid
to upper 80s in the Concho Valley and Northern Edwards Plateau.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Monday)
Issued at 322 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Storm chances linger into Wednesday Night, especially if the
dryline is able to become stationary briefly during the early
evening before the cold front can overtake it. A few showers
linger into Thursday morning but mostly dry and cooler behind the
front. The roller coaster for temperatures will continue with
warmer conditions on Friday, before the next front comes through
and we cool down for Saturday. Model blends are showing some
showers and a few storms possible behind the front on Friday Night
into Saturday morning. Warmer and dry conditions for next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 501 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

Will start with VFR conditions across the area. There is a chance
for isolated thunderstorms to affect the area this evening, mainly
near the KABI terminal. Will amend TAFs if necessary to account
for any thunderstorm activity. Winds will remain southerly and
gusty through tomorrow afternoon. Persistent south to
southeasterly low level flow will quickly bring moisture and low
clouds back in across the area, with most sites expecting to be
back down to MVFR categories between 03Z and 06Z. Will keep MVFR
to possibly as low IFR for periods of time after midnight at
southern sites through late morning or early afternoon Wednesday.
A cold front will bring a wind shift into the area near the end of
the TAF period tomorrow.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     61  80  51  73 /  30  50  40  10
San Angelo  61  87  51  79 /  10  20  30  10
Junction    61  86  55  81 /  10  20  60  20
Brownwood   61  81  53  75 /  20  60  50  20
Sweetwater  60  80  49  75 /  20  30  30  10
Ozona       61  87  53  81 /   0  10  30  10
Brady       62  82  54  75 /  10  40  60  20

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...19
LONG TERM....07
AVIATION...20

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
402 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-260915-
Fisher-Nolan-Sterling-Coke-Runnels-Irion-Tom Green-Concho-
Crockett-Schleicher-Sutton-Haskell-Throckmorton-Jones-Shackelford-
Taylor-Callahan-Coleman-Brown-McCulloch-San Saba-Menard-Kimble-
Mason-
402 AM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of west central
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible this
afternoon and evening across most of west central Texas. Large
hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, but a tornado or two
will also be possible with any discrete storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday

Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop
Wednesday afternoon and evening. A few of these storms may be strong
to severe especially east of a Synder to San Angelo to Sonora line.
Large hail and damaging winds are the main hazards, but a tornado
or two will also be possible with any discrete storms.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
615 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

TXZ049-260000-
Fisher TX-
615 PM CDT Tue Apr 25 2023

...A strong thunderstorm will impact portions of Fisher County
through 700 PM CDT...

At 614 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Us-180 Near The Fisher-
Scurry County Line, or 7 miles northeast of Hermleigh, moving
northeast at 35 mph.

HAZARD...Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around
         unsecured objects. Minor damage to outdoor objects is
         possible.

Locations impacted include...
Rotan, Roby, Sylvester, Hobbs, Longworth, Mccaulley, Hitson, Busby,
Capitola and Us-180 Near The Fisher-Scurry County Line.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

&&

LAT...LON 3267 10014 3266 10015 3263 10014 3262 10015
      3257 10066 3279 10066 3296 10024 3296 10020
TIME...MOT...LOC 2314Z 242DEG 29KT 3269 10065

MAX HAIL SIZE...0.50 IN
MAX WIND GUST...40 MPH