Flash Flooding and Flooding in Texas, April 20, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
132 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday/

Latest satellite and surface observations show the the front
currently moving along a line from Sherman/DFW Metroplex/Comanche
with scattered storms developing along/ahead of the line. We can
also see an additional area of streaming showers/storms across
Central Texas. Coverage of storms along the front will continue to
increase as the atmosphere continues to destabilize. Some of
these storms will become severe with large hail and damaging winds
as the main threat. Storms are expected to merge into a
cluster/line as they continue to move east of I-35 this afternoon
and evening. Make sure to always have multiple ways to receive
alerts and have a plan if a warning is issue for your location.
The severe threat will end when the front moves east of your
location.

There's also a potential for locally heavy rain rates and
training showers/storms mainly across Central Texas through this
evening. Isolated rainfall totals over 2.5" are possible. This may
increase the threat for localized flooding mainly across the low-
lying, flood prone, and urban areas. Most of the activity should
be east/south of our area late tonight, however areas across
Central Texas may see additional post-frontal development of
scattered showers/storms by late Friday morning or early
afternoon. The severe threat remains low at this time, but we
can't rule out a strong storm or two. Otherwise, highs tomorrow
will stay in the 70s with north winds and clouds clearing from
west to east in the afternoon.

Sanchez

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 345 AM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023/
/Friday Night Onward/

By Friday night, the cold front will be positioned along the Gulf
Coast with high pressure filtering in behind the departed system.
Overnight lows will be around 5 to 10 degrees cooler than the
previous night, dropping into the mid 40s and lower 50s.
East/southeast winds will prevail Saturday as high pressure shifts
just east of the region with highs in the 70s expected.

The first of multiple low-amplitude shortwaves will arrive in the
west/northwest flow aloft on Sunday across South-Central Texas,
bringing a chance for showers and storms areawide, with the
highest PoPs (40-50%) west of I-35 later in the day. Outside of
the rain/storm chances, cooler and mostly cloudy conditions are
expected Sunday with highs primarily in the upper 50s to upper
60s. Disturbances will continue to arrive through the midweek as
low level return flow also becomes better established, keeping
periodic rain chances in the forecast. Although there is quite a
bit of uncertainty in the location/track of these shortwaves,
guidance is in decent agreement that a slightly more potent trough
will dive southward and induce cyclogenesis to the west around
Tuesday. This will bring higher rain chances to North and Central
Texas and also provide a better shot at receiving meaningful
rainfall totals compared to the lighter amounts expected Sunday.
High temperatures will fluctuate in response to the unsettled
pattern with most areas reaching the 60s and 70s, outside of some
sites in western North & Central Texas climbing into the 80s
Tuesday.

Gordon

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

The main aviation concern through this evening will be the potential
for scattered thunderstorms along a cold front. Latest satellite
and surface observations show the front is currently moving across
the DFW Metroplex sites. The threat for convection will continue
through around 3 pm, mainly for DFW/DAL/GKY. There is also a
potential that some of the sites may not see a direct impact of
TS. Most of of the activity should be east of the sites after 5 PM
but will still impact the eastern arrivals/departures. Some of
these storms could be severe at times. Additionally, gusty
erratic winds are possible near some of the storms.

For ACT...the timing of storms is between 4-9 PM, with a potential
that some storms may linger later in the evening as the front
slows down or becomes nearly stationary across Central Texas.

North winds will persist through tomorrow around 10-12kt with clouds
clearing from west to east.

Sanchez

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  75  53  76  52 /  50  20   0   5  20
Waco                60  76  49  74  53 /  70  30   0  10  20
Paris               56  72  47  71  49 /  80  30   0   5  10
Denton              52  74  47  74  47 /  40  20   0   5  20
McKinney            54  74  47  73  49 /  60  20   0   5  20
Dallas              59  76  52  75  52 /  60  30   0   5  20
Terrell             58  74  49  74  51 /  80  30   0   5  20
Corsicana           62  75  51  76  54 /  80  40   0   5  20
Temple              60  77  49  77  53 /  80  30   0  10  20
Mineral Wells       53  75  47  76  48 /  40  10   0  10  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
108 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

TXZ091>095-100>107-115>123-129>135-141>148-156>162-174-175-211130-
Montague-Cooke-Grayson-Fannin-Lamar-Young-Jack-Wise-Denton-Collin-
Hunt-Delta-Hopkins-Stephens-Palo Pinto-Parker-Tarrant-Dallas-
Rockwall-Kaufman-Van Zandt-Rains-Eastland-Erath-Hood-Somervell-
Johnson-Ellis-Henderson-Comanche-Mills-Hamilton-Bosque-Hill-Navarro-
Freestone-Anderson-Lampasas-Coryell-Bell-McLennan-Falls-Limestone-
Leon-Milam-Robertson-
108 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for North and Central Texas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight.
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will pose a threat for large
hail, damaging winds, and heavy rain across much of North and Central
Texas. The tornado threat is low, but not zero. Flash flooding is
possible across parts of Central Texas.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.
Low thunderstorm chances return Sunday and continue for much of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation may be needed this afternoon across much of North
and Central Texas.