Flash Flood and Hail in Arkansas, April 20 to 21, 2023

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
138 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

To begin the period, a large upper level low continues to track
across the northern Central Plains. This will drag a frontal
boundary across our area this afternoon with PoPs increasing as we
head into the afternoon and overnight hours. Strong to severe storms
are possible with this system with hail and damaging winds the
primary concern. Heavy rainfall is likely the greatest concern as
most deterministic and ensemble models bring in two to three inches
of rain across much of the state with some locations seeing locally
higher amounts. Calm and drier conditions are expected Friday night
into Saturday.

As mentioned above, severe weather will be possible across much of
the state this afternoon and evening as showers and storms begin to
move into the state. While the chance for tornadoes are not zero, it
is very low as the main concern is damaging winds and hail. Any
discrete cells out ahead of the main line will have the greatest
chance of producing hail, but as we approach the evening hours...
storms will likely develop into a QLCS. By then, damaging winds will
take over as the primary concern.

The special 18Z upper air sounding from our office (LZK), showed an
environment fully supportive of severe storms but by no means extreme
...CAPE values of 1800+ J/kg and dewpoints in the low to mid 60s.
With that said, wind shear seems to be on the low side as SRH values
are <150 m2/s2.

As mentioned above, heavy rainfall is likely the greatest concern as
a widespread two to three inches could fall across portions of the
state with locally higher amounts possible. Additionally, the 18Z
special sounding already shows PW around 1.30 in. with high-res
models indicating that value could get to be 1.50+ in. across
portions of the state. With already saturated soils and above
average rainfall so far this year, flash flooding will be an
elevated concern through Friday morning. Please remember, do not
drive through flooded roadways and make sure to give yourself
additional travel time to get to and from your destination.

High temperatures are expected to be in the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the state Friday and Saturday. Overnight low temperatures are
expected to be in the 40s to upper 50s.

Please continue to check back in for updates/changes to the forecast
and be sure to follow reliable weather sources to get your weather
information.
&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 136 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Broad longwave H500 troughing wl be deamplifying over much of the
CONUS to begin the PD, as the primary closed upper low shifts to the
N/E into the Great Lakes and Canadian provinces. At the sfc, a
cdfrnt wl be clear of the state w/ broad sfc high pressure settling
into the Cntrl and Srn Plains. A surge of continental air will be
prevalent through much of the Cntrl CONUS, w/ below-normal temps
knocking on the door of Nrn AR Sun morning. Most guidance continues
to suggest temps in the upper 30s wl be seen by portions of far Nrn
AR and the higher terrain of the Ozarks. Confidence is still low on
freeze potential attm.

By the return of the new work week and thru the remainder of the
fcst PD, a more unsettled pattern is set to unfold. Sfc high
pressure wl quickly depart to the Ern US, and weak/broad sfc
cyclonic flow wl quickly develop over much of the Srn Gulf Coast
region. A sfc baroclinic zone is progged amongst the fcst sfc mass
fields, w/ much of AR residing on the cooler side of this bndry,
positioned from the AR/TX panhandle region, E-S/E towards the
ARKLATEX vcty. The bndry wl serve as a focus point for enhanced PoPs
thru the early half of next week.

Additionally thru the early part of next week, an H500 shortwave is
set to come ashore over the PAC-N/W and quickly dig/pivot into the
Four Corners Region. Wed and thru the remainder of the PD, this
upper-lvl wave wl quickly interact w/ antecedent low-lvl cyclonic
flow, and a more organized sfc low wl begin to take shape, w/ the
primary low moving S/wrd towards the Gulf of Mexico. This wl further
cement most of AR on the cold side of this low, w/ Nrly winds
keeping temps near slightly below normal ranges. However, the
influence of the sfc low & initial baroclinic zone along w/ the
later approaching upper shortwave wl keep high Chc PoPs in place for
much of the FA thru most of next week. A lack of Srly flow and
prominent sfc heating potential should keep any severe threat
minimal, however some isolated bouts of thunder may be possible
later in the week as the upper wave traverses thru the FA.
Otherwise, a wet and cooler than normal week is on deck for
much of Arkansas.

Something something...April Showers, right?

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1214 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

Low clouds continue to move into the state as conditions will
continue to deteriorate through the afternoon and evening hours.
Current VFR/MVFR conditions are expected to become IFR conditions
as a line of showers and storms move through the state. With it,
it will bring the chance for heavy rainfall and possible VIS
restrictions. Showers will continue through early Friday morning.
Winds could be gusty at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     53  69  44  67 / 100  30  10   0
Camden AR         59  69  46  73 / 100  60   0   0
Harrison AR       47  67  41  61 /  60  20   0   0
Hot Springs AR    55  71  46  71 / 100  40   0   0
Little Rock   AR  57  71  49  73 / 100  40   0   0
Monticello AR     62  70  48  74 /  90  70  10   0
Mount Ida AR      53  71  44  71 /  90  30   0   0
Mountain Home AR  49  69  42  63 /  90  20   0   0
Newport AR        54  66  45  66 / 100  40  10   0
Pine Bluff AR     58  69  48  72 / 100  60  10   0
Russellville AR   54  71  44  69 /  90  30   0   0
Searcy AR         54  68  44  70 / 100  40  10   0
Stuttgart AR      58  67  48  70 / 100  60  10   0

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...233
LONG TERM....72
AVIATION...233

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

ARZ004>008-014>017-024-025-031>034-039-042>047-052>057-062>069-
103-112-113-121>123-130-137-138-140-141-203-212-213-221>223-230-
237-238-240-241-313-340-341-211845-
Marion-Baxter-Fulton-Sharp-Randolph-Stone-Izard-Independence-
Lawrence-Cleburne-Jackson-Conway-Faulkner-White-Woodruff-Perry-
Garland-Saline-Pulaski-Lonoke-Prairie-Monroe-Pike-Clark-
Hot Spring-Grant-Jefferson-Arkansas-Dallas-Cleveland-Lincoln-
Desha-Ouachita-Calhoun-Bradley-Drew-Boone County Except Southwest-
Newton County Higher Elevations-Searcy County Lower Elevations-
Southern Johnson County-Southern Pope County-
Southeast Van Buren County-Western and Northern Logan County-
Northern Scott County-Northwest Yell County-
Polk County Lower Elevations-
Central and Eastern Montgomery County-
Boone County Higher Elevations-Newton County Lower Elevations-
Northwest Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Johnson County Higher Elevations-Pope County Higher Elevations-
Van Buren County Higher Elevations-
Southern and Eastern Logan County-
Central and Southern Scott County-Yell Excluding Northwest-
Northern Polk County Higher Elevations-
Northern Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
Eastern, Central, and Southern Searcy County Higher Elevations-
Southeast Polk County Higher Elevations-
Southwest Montgomery County Higher Elevations-
145 PM CDT Thu Apr 20 2023

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for a Large Part of Arkansas.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

Breezy southerly winds are expected today ahead of an approaching
cold front. Thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon
along the front and some of these storms could become strong to
severe, persisting into Friday morning. The primary concerns will
be damaging winds and large hail. The tornado threat while low,
is not zero.

The storms may also produce locally heavy rainfall Thursday
evening into mid day Friday. Several inches of rain may fall in a
short amount of time which could lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Colder than normal air temperatures are expected across portions of
northern Arkansas on Sunday morning. Temperatures in the upper 30s
will be possible, and some higher-elevations may see freezing or
very-near freezing temperatures.

Otherwise, no other hazardous weather is expected through the
forecast period.

.Spotter Information Statement...

Spotter activation will not be needed.

&&

Visit NWS Little Rock on the web. Go to http://weather.gov/lzk.

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